South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->

[A.J]

Ok, a new thread to continue the discussions on the current weather and no doubt a very stormy period to come

 

I hope every stays safe and heed the Netweather/Met office warnings for the coming days

 

Old thread here -----------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79220-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-26114-12z/page-39

[karlos1983]

Just after using my 3G to post pics, grhh. Might try again if I can be bothered in a bit.

[jtay]

It's all kicking off out there again.

 

I'm going to be an expert fence panel fixer by the time this winter is out.

[Tattooed Fox]

Just after using my 3G to post pics, grhh. Might try again if I can be bothered in a bit.

 

Hey whats happening with the baby?

[karlos1983]

Hey whats happening with the baby?

Induction process has started, he seems quite happy where he is ATM, so 1 night in the hospital at least. Hopefully arrival tomorrow

[Tattooed Fox]

Induction process has started, he seems quite happy where he is ATM, so 1 night in the hospital at least.

Hopefully arrival tomorrow

 

Ahh bless!  best of luck to her and you! storm would definitely be a great name for him. Hope you have a great  first  day together tomorrow  

Edited February 5, 2014 by Sonnia

[Joe Levy]

In Exeter the river levels are very high now and although they will probably go down slightly tonight, the rainfall tomorrow could prove very problematic. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120726.aspx?stationId=3262

 

I walked along a 4-5 mile stretch of the river and I was quite astonished at how much even the wider sections of the Exe have flooded, with areas like the Quay and the railway line upstream of St. David's now especially vulnerable.

[karlos1983]

Sandbanks bay closed at both ends

Branksome Chine

Poole Park

Hamworthy Park completely flooded, but I didn't get a photo of it, plenty on the Bournemouth Echo website.

[karlos1983]

Ahh bless! best of luck to her and you! storm would definitely be a great name for him. Hope you have a great first day together tomorrow

Thanks very much for the kind message. Edited February 5, 2014 by karlos1983

[AWD]

I wonder if the picturesque Devonshire town of Dawlish will still be on the map next week;

[MrNooo]

Wind really starting to ramp up here, hope all the tiles stay on the house!!! Stay safe everyone

[gottolovethisweather]

I wonder if the picturesque Devonshire town of Dawlish will still be on the map next week;

image.jpg

 

Good god.

[gottolovethisweather]

It might not seem like it but as mentioned by others elsewhere there should be some sort of lull due over the coming hours and then by morning its a case of de ja vu. 14.0mm today in Newbury from the rain bands and passing showers. 29.8mm for February now with over 200mm being the annual figure, which is much lower than other places in this region.

Edited February 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[dec10snow]

Very high river levels in Taunton also, and as Joe said, although it will drop tonight, the rain tomorrow could cause large problems with the river being so high;

Edit: I should add, this is the bridge going over the tone in the centre of town, so if it floods here, it could cause havoc!

Edited February 5, 2014 by dec10snow

[Nick L]

Some of those photos are terrifying. And there is still no immediate sign of a break. I cannot wait for this wretched winter to end.

[AWD]

Latest EURO4 output has some better news for Somerset and environs tomorrow.

48hr accumulative rainfall chart (ie up until midday Friday, so well before the weekends shinnanigands), forecasting a notable "drier" slot over the Somerset, North Dorset, Mendips area, with minimal accumulative rainfall;

Not such good news for Devon & Cornwall though with another dose of more noticeable rainfall likely.

[Mapantz]

Very weird how we've missed all the heavy rain here, only about 5mm has fallen today.

[knocker]

It's calmed down a fair bit here quite recently. Wind westerly 20mph gusting 40 and dropping.

 

Pressure rising around 2mb an hour.

[Mapantz]

Latest EURO4 output has some better news for Somerset and environs tomorrow.

48hr accumulative rainfall chart (ie up until midday Friday, so well before the weekends shinnanigands), forecasting a notable "drier" slot over the Somerset, North Dorset, Mendips area, with minimal accumulative rainfall;

image.jpg

Not such good news for Devon & Cornwall though with another dose of more noticeable rainfall likely.

The NMM has other ideas about that :lol:

Ian F did say there would be warning upgrades for west country and up popped the ambers!

[Skullzrulerz]

The NMM has other ideas about that

Ian F did say there would be warning upgrades for west country and up popped the ambers!

Not all of the west country is under an amber warning.

[Dorsetbred]

Very weird how we've missed all the heavy rain here, only about 5mm has fallen today.

5.7mm here so about the same as you.

[Mapantz]

Not all of the west country is under an amber warning.

I know, but the the models were showing Thurs/Fri to be wettest from the IoW and east to begin with, as the week progressed, it moved further west.The 12Z has moved it further again, bear in mind they're only guides to where the heaviest rain will be during Thurs/Fri.

[Rammie]

Latest EURO4 output has some better news for Somerset and environs tomorrow.

48hr accumulative rainfall chart (ie up until midday Friday, so well before the weekends shinnanigands), forecasting a notable "drier" slot over the Somerset, North Dorset, Mendips area, with minimal accumulative rainfall;

image.jpg

Not such good news for Devon & Cornwall though with another dose of more noticeable rainfall likely.

I thought that Somerset was due for more rain on Thursday evening/night??

[AWD]

I thought that Somerset was due for more rain on Thursday evening/night??

That's the point. Some models, as Mapantz has posted above paint another wet story Thurs night, and some models as I've posted above, paint a less wet picture with lighter rainfall.It's therefore possible that Somerset and environs could escape with little rainfall tomorrow night if certain forecast models verify.Nothing dry though, which is what's really needed.

[gottolovethisweather]

With Air Pressure remaining low over the coming days nearly all areas will be affected by some rain at times, just how much is unlikely to be confirmed until assessing the latest satellite and radar imagery at the time or by following the constantly updated media forecasts. No prolonged dry weather on offer remains the main headline and today's rainfall is unlikely to filter down into the river systems until 24 to 36 hours after the event I would imagine. Of note, parts of central Wales have seemingly received a lot of rainfall today so just which locations that will impact downstream remains to be seen as well. All IMHO of course.

Edited February 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather