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Vorticity0123

Severe Tropical Storm Edilson

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A new tropical depression has formed to the northeast of La Reunion. The system consists of a couple of well-defined bands of deep convection wrapping into the circulation from the north and the south. The center appears to be located on the northern edge of the convective band/blob to the south, as analyzed by CIMSS. Below, a Rainbow satellite image can be seen of the newly formed cyclone:

 

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The track forecast (from La Reunion) takes the system south-southwestward over the island called Maurice, just to the east of La Reunion. Therefore, the island itself will most likely be impacted by the system as well.

 

The intensity forecast indicates strengthening up to moderate tropical storm status (winds up to 100 km/h1). Thereafter, extratropical transition is forecast as the system reaches the midlatitudes.

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The GFS agrees with the forecast track from La Reunion. It can be seen below:

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Of note is that the GFS seems to be slightly more agressive with the system, indicating a pressure of around 990 hPa (light blue shading). This is usually indicative of a category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHS scale). 

 

Also note the sub-26*C sea surface temperatures (shown by the intense black line) that the system will reach in about 4 days. This will likely be the time (though not the main reason) for extratropical transition to begin.

 

The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for the system.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96S/96S_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=96S&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9614web.txt

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/meteoreunion2/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14020412/14.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

Edited by Vorticity0123

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The depression was upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson by MeteoFrance this morning, and has since continued to strengthen. Winds are at 40kts according to JTWC. Edilson has much deeper convection over the LLCC this evening, with banding to the south. Heavy rains are affecting Mauritius currently and will eventually affect La Reunion as Edilson moves south-southwestwards along the western periphery of ridging to the east. Shear is low, and waters are warm, so strengthening appears likely. JTWC expect a peak of 65kts, before weakening begins by day 3 as shear rises and waters cool along track. A trough should break down the ridge at this time, sending Edilson to the southeast by day 4/5.

 

post-1820-0-80219800-1391642658_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edilson has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 55kts according to JTWC. Strong banding continues to wrap towards the central dense overcast in which an eye feature is beginning to emerge. With good outflow and low shear, Edilson should strengthen some more over the next 36hrs, before the storm runs into colder water.

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Edilson did not strengthen any further, because shear increased due to an advancing trough. Shear of up to 30kts has continue to affect Edilson today, and winds have fallen to 45kts. The LLCC is almost entirely exposed, with the remaining shallow convection sheared off to the south. Extratropical transition will begin very soon as sea temperatures decline quickly as Edilson moves poleward.

 

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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Edilson has dissipated over cold waters and high shear. Regneration is not expected as the remnants continue to move out of the tropics.

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