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Any truth in Buchan’s February cold spell?

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I've just put together an article that you might find interesting about Buchan's spells as the next one starts on Friday the 7th of this month. 
Usual kind of stuff 
(1) Tabulated list of CET daily deciles from 1947-2013 for the 7-14 Feb.
(2) Scatter chart of mean temperatures for the 7-14 Feb, along with trend and 10 year moving average from 1772-2013.
(3) Daily LTA one for the extended period 1772-2013 the other 1961-1990.
I'll let you guess what I came up with as a probability of if one might occur this year.

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