west pacific Tropical Storm Kajiki

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 02W has formed just east of the southern Philippines, in the area that TS Lingling formed earlier in the month. Winds are at 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is displaced to the northwest of the poorly defined LLCC due to moderate shear. This moderately sheared environment is expected to prevent 02W from strengthening significantly as it tracks westwards towards the islands of the southern Philippines. Land interaction will serve to weaken the system in a day or so, and recovery is not expected once the system reaches the South China Sea.

 

[Somerset Squall]

02W has intensified modestly overnight and has become the season's second named storm, Kajiki, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. Convection has dramatically increased overnight, and the storm is taking on a more symmetrical appearance. This is not good news for the southern Philippines, as it looks like rain will now be a big issue. Land interaction should disrupt Kajiki soon, but it isn't out of the question that the storm could become a little stronger prior to landfall.

[Vorticity0123]

Excessive precipitation over the Philippines

 

02W has intensified modestly overnight and has become the season's second named storm, Kajiki, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. Convection has dramatically increased overnight, and the storm is taking on a more symmetrical appearance. This is not good news for the southern Philippines, as it looks like rain will now be a big issue. Land interaction should disrupt Kajiki soon, but it isn't out of the question that the storm could become a little stronger prior to landfall.

The Philippines have really been suffering from excessive rainfall during the last month or so. Just taking a look at the track of ex-TC Lingling says it all:

 

The track of Lingling. 

 

Lingling impacted the Philippines for about 11 days (the system almost spent its complete lifetime impacting the Philippines), though the track given above does seem to have been developed from 2 different storms, given the sharp shift in the center of the cyclone. However, this doesn't take away that the Philippines must have taken a very severe blow due to this severe rainfall event.

 

Nasa has a blog about Lingling, stating that over 1100 mm has been recorded in the period that Lingling impacted the Philippines.

 

Accumulated rainfall totals from 10-17 January.

 

Kajiki

 

Kajiki has weakened to a tropical depression, with winds to about 30 kt. The main causes of this severe weakening are land interaction along with very strong easterly shear, blowing all convection associated with the system through the Philippines, as can be readily seen in the visible loop below:

 

Visible loop of Kajiki

 

Because the system is moving in-phase with the shear, the effects from the shear are slightly tempered. Moreover, Kajiki is a very fast-moving system. This means that the precipitation will be of very short duration, giving little time for the precipitation to accumulate over one position. This is a good sign for the Philippines.

 

Finally, the convection can be seen unravelling on the last few frames of the loop. This could indicate that Kajiki may be opening up into a trough (i.e. it could be losing its surface circulation). However, this doesn't have many impact on the total amount of precipitation falling over the Philippines.

 

As a nice final image: a MIMIC TPW image from Kajiki. .

 

MIMIC TPW image from the western Pacific

 

Note the high amount of Total Precipitable Water associated with Kajiki, being unleashed on the Philippines.

 

EDIT: To my suprise, Kajiki has developed a new burst of very deep convection, implying that the cyclone could easily be much better organized than I thought it was. The burst is not very circular, but it at least shows Kajiki is still showing some healthy signs of life.

 

DVORAK image of Kajiki, showing a ragged, but intense, burst of convection associated with Kajiki (though the center might be to the east of the burst).

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#Tropical_Storm_Lingling_.28Agaton.29

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/91w-northwestern-pacific-ocean/#.Uuv8Dfl5PxR

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02W/02W_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/main.html

Edited January 31, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Somerset Squall]

Kajiki became disorganised overland and has since being overwhelmed by shear and dry air over the South China Sea. Kajiki jas therefore dissipated.