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Morning from the sleepy haze.

We just had the most red sky ever. It's gone now but will attempt to upload the piccy I took which being as it is on a phone, doesn't show the intensity of the red so well.

* Sorry for waffle. I am tired*

Posted Image2014-02-06 07.20.28.jpg

Probably a very apt coloured sky too, unfortunately, :(

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morning all, 

 

grey, damp and generlly miserable here at the moment. I dreamt last night that the whole of the UK was under a Met Office Red warning...this weather is even plaguing my dreams now! 

 

I see the rain is on its way, its going to be a wet one! I hope everyone has a great day. The kids have generously given me their lurgy so I shall be indoors under a blanket with copious amount of tea, biscuits and chocolate, windows open and listening to the rain.

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Quelle Surprise Raining again  :(

Whilst here in Tunbridge Wells it's 70 degrees and positively balmy. The sun is streaming through the kitchen window.... Now what was the name of that little wooden boy who's nose grew when he told fibs!!!!
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Grey, miserable start here today with temperature not cold at 8 degrees.

Just awaiting the next deluge and fast running out of towels to dry myself and the dog off! House is beginning to resemble a laundry trying to dry them all off.

Keep safe if you need to be outdoors today.

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It is perishing cold at Peckham rye waiting for the train. Clouding up and cold rain on the way then who knows what for the weekend and beyond. One thing is for sure my removals job is going to get wet and windy on Saturday

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Another lovely journey into London courtesy of Mr Bob Crow and the idiots that follow him.

 

Looking at the radar there is yet more incoming. The wind last night almost blew the fence down and its now wobbling quite a bit....If Saturdays charts are anything to go by, it might just finish it off....

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Ohhh its all kicking off on the mad thread.....forget the storms, take cover from that lol.

 

I have to agree with what Chris78 said though that it should be called the hunt for cold thread as thats all it has been lately with lots of members only talking about that. Most of us love cold, but shouldnt it be a thread to talk about what the models show?

 

Rant over.

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(for locals coach and horses in ruxley garden centre), blow me they had a cancellation, so off we go. Really excited by that.Still blowy out, sky's look threatening as well, but the nights are drawing out.

 How was the meal at the Coach & Horses CK?  When we go to Ruxley, I often hint to Mr Raven it would be nice to have dinner there one evening.  Although it seems I am obviously not hinting well enough!

 

As for the weather - dull, dull and more dull.  And later it appears it's going to be wet, wet and even more wet.  Joy!

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"Ohhh its all kicking off on the mad thread.....forget the storms, take cover from that lol."

I agree that it really should be called The Hunt For Cold(Snow) Thread. I don't understand why they get so personal and sometimes a bit nasty with each other. Not like here.

Awaiting the deluge to start after lunch but had some showers passing through already. At a funeral this afternoon which will be sad and wet.

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Here are rainfall total maps from the NMM hi-res model.

 

It looks, to me, like the North Downs of Kent might be the (not so) sweet spot for the highest rainfall totals.

 

post-11059-0-12398400-1391680091_thumb.ppost-11059-0-98895000-1391680101_thumb.p

 

 

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Don't don't get involved in things that get personal. Weather is only personal in that some people like rain or snow or sun and some people love all weather no matter how extreme or benign.

Get so fed up of blame culture.

Dry here, for now. Better walk doggy in the slushy mud. This was part of yesterdays walk:

post-3066-0-21462300-1391680251_thumb.jp

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Dry here, for now. Better walk doggy in the slushy mud. This was part of yesterdays walk:

Posted Image2014-02-05 11.41.06.jpg

 

This is so like our local park too, just slippery mud, waterlogged pools of 'grass', humans and dogs struggling to stay upright, short dogs returning home with a muddy underbelly (ours being one of them) and the swans and ducks pleased with their extra living accommodation. Of course I could also be describing the back garden (minus the pond and feathered chaps/esses).

 

Very grey here today with some heavy wet stuff approaching Heathrow at 8.30, Uxbridge now just still and rather boring with the odd shower.

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not good..

Posted Imagerain 1.jpg

I agree not good at all.

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014020706_201402060819_1_stormforecast.xml

 

A plume of warm and moist Atlantic air spreads north-eastward into western and central Europe ahead of an intense surface low. Latest La Coruna sounding indicates a deep moist layer with 7 g/kg mixing ratio up to 800 hPa and moist adiabatic lapse rates between 850 and 650 hPa. During the noon and afternoon hours, a strong mid-level jet streak will approach from the west ahead of a progressing short-wave trough. Q vectors indicate strong QG forcing in the range of this jet streak that affects the Bay of Biscay and the British Isles today. This may lead to slightly steeper lapse rates and CAPE will likely evolve.

Latest satellite imagery indicates a narrow cold frontal rain band at the western flank of the warm sector. Lightning activity is present even in the warm sector across the western Bay of Biscay. Current thinking is that deep moist convection will become more organized during the late morning hours along the cold frontal rain band due to the increasing QG forcing. A narrow convective line is expected that spreads north-east across the Bay of Biscay into the British Isles. Western France and the western North Sea may be also affected.

Strong low-level vertical wind shear in excess of 15 m/s in the lowest km is present and intense up- and downdrafts are expected, leading to a cold pool moving north-east. This will increase the potential of severe wind gusts of the convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out along and ahead of the convective line given the favourable low-level veering (0-1 km SRH 100 m²/s²) and associated potential of mesocyclones.

Main reason to issue a level 1 rather than level 2 is that relatively weak low-level winds (around 20 to 25 m/s at 850 hPa) are expected along the convective line. However, a widespread wind event is not rules out, though. Severe threat will decrease in the afternoon hours when the line moves on over England, where low-level moisture is limited. Nonetheless, tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out until the evening.

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Horizon melting into the sea all grey. Rain just started here at Sandgate. No sign of the beach regeneration shovellers and lorries which started earlier this week and has now been washed away twice. Just breezy here now but next doors pamapas grass has a had a battering!

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Here are rainfall total maps from the NMM hi-res model.

 

It looks, to me, like the North Downs of Kent might be the (not so) sweet spot for the highest rainfall totals.

 

Posted Image6-2-14.pngPosted Image7-2-14.png

 

 

not good..

Posted Imagerain 1.jpg

Oh deep and unmistakable joy, I am right under the orangey/red bit.  Not raining hard here yet, just grey and drab (drey ?), not particularly windy.  Urgh.

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I agree not good at all.

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014020706_201402060819_1_stormforecast.xml

 

A plume of warm and moist Atlantic air spreads north-eastward into western and central Europe ahead of an intense surface low. Latest La Coruna sounding indicates a deep moist layer with 7 g/kg mixing ratio up to 800 hPa and moist adiabatic lapse rates between 850 and 650 hPa. During the noon and afternoon hours, a strong mid-level jet streak will approach from the west ahead of a progressing short-wave trough. Q vectors indicate strong QG forcing in the range of this jet streak that affects the Bay of Biscay and the British Isles today. This may lead to slightly steeper lapse rates and CAPE will likely evolve.Latest satellite imagery indicates a narrow cold frontal rain band at the western flank of the warm sector. Lightning activity is present even in the warm sector across the western Bay of Biscay. Current thinking is that deep moist convection will become more organized during the late morning hours along the cold frontal rain band due to the increasing QG forcing. A narrow convective line is expected that spreads north-east across the Bay of Biscay into the British Isles. Western France and the western North Sea may be also affected.Strong low-level vertical wind shear in excess of 15 m/s in the lowest km is present and intense up- and downdrafts are expected, leading to a cold pool moving north-east. This will increase the potential of severe wind gusts of the convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out along and ahead of the convective line given the favourable low-level veering (0-1 km SRH 100 m²/s²) and associated potential of mesocyclones.Main reason to issue a level 1 rather than level 2 is that relatively weak low-level winds (around 20 to 25 m/s at 850 hPa) are expected along the convective line. However, a widespread wind event is not rules out, though. Severe threat will decrease in the afternoon hours when the line moves on over England, where low-level moisture is limited. Nonetheless, tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out until the evening.

 

This is what they are talking about and what we need to watch..

 

post-12648-0-30073300-1391684121_thumb.j

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