South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/01/14

[Jax]

Nooooooo neither of you, I love our thread (and it does 'meander' at times but that is the beauty of it)

do we need a chat chat thread?

[Eskimo]

My updated warnings map.

There is sufficient enough evidence to support a potentially dangerous period between the 3rd - 10th February. I would obviously normally provide forecasts for the Southeast but I feel this week warrants my help and warnings to those across the whole southern portion of England & Wales. System after system will effect the UK this week bringing outbreaks of heavy rain. With the ground already heavily saturated, this is looking serious for those already flooded or on the brink of flooding. 

Please be aware that if you are prone to flooding and are located in the red areas, act now as a precaution. This is an unusually wet period and there is a high likelihood of river flooding. Details will be firmed up in the next 24-48 hours. If you know anyone who lives in these areas, please share this post, it's not for my benefit but for theirs. 

Flood advice number. 
0845 988 1188

https://www.facebook.com/LondonAndTheSouthEastWeather?bookmark_t=page

[Paul]

do we need a chat chat thread?

 

We have one over in the lounge

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78806-banter-pinch-punch-first-of-the-month/

 

We also have the chat room:

http://forum.netweather.tv/chat/

 

Best will in the world, with some of the drama in here anyone would think that Ali has come along and threatened to have anyone who doesn't post a 100 word essay on the weather hung drawn and quartered!! All that's been said is that this that we should bear in mind that this is essentially a weather thread, and although banter and chat is cool a weathery vein should run through it.

 

So a bit of perspective needed I think, no-one wants to rip the guts out of here and make it a dry, serious weather discussion only thread, it's just that in recent times it's had some moments where it's just strayed a bit more toward random banter, and a bit further from weather, so the reminder this morning was just to try and tip the scales back the other way a touch, and that's it.

[terryall]

'Nuff said.

How Far East are we expecting high waves on the South Coast Wednesday i.e. As Far East As Dover?

[john pike]

updated fax for tomorrow has the low to our west slightly further south

 

that is not too great for us

 

waiting the updated ones

 

 

 

after tonights rain clears

 

the morning should see low cloud and drizzle

 

clearing in the afternoon

 

temps

 

although a warmer wind it will feel chilly

 

around 6-7 degrees

 

anyway the next lot are the ones to watch

 

back soon with the rest

[Jax]

We have one over in the lounge

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78806-banter-pinch-punch-first-of-the-month/

 

We also have the chat room:

http://forum.netweather.tv/chat/

 

Best will in the world, with some of the drama in here anyone would think that Ali has come along and threatened to have anyone who doesn't post a 100 word essay on the weather hung drawn and quartered!! All that's been said is that this that we should bear in mind that this is essentially a weather thread, and although banter and chat is cool a weathery vein should run through it.

 

So a bit of perspective needed I think, no-one wants to rip the guts out of here and make it a dry, serious weather discussion only thread, it's just that in recent times it's had some moments where it's just strayed a bit more toward random banter, and a bit further from weather, so the reminder this morning was just to try and tip the scales back the other way a touch, and that's it.

Not knocking anyone and their input/moderation on here far from it, it was a bit tongue in cheek if I was honest.

 

Keep up the good work all.

 

Nothing weather wise here (well unless you like a like cool breeze and dry calm conditions) 4.5oC (yes I finally got the pesky remote temp thingy working WOOT!)

[Charltonkerry]

After careful consideration over the last few hours, I have decided to not to pst anymore apart from anything directly concerned with weather.

Regards

Kerry

[Jax]

After careful consideration over the last few hours, I have decided to not to pst anymore apart from anything directly concerned with weather.RegardsKerry

 

just make sure your not a stranger then if you do, we want weather updates on a regular basis.

[Tilly]

Evening all

 

Just thought I'd nip in quick and say how much I love this thread! The reason I hardly post is because I find it extremely hard to keep on topic (natural born waffler) so rather than have me being told off and having my posts frequently deleted I choose to read rather than post (most of the time)

 

Personally I think its nice to pop in here and read something other than rain, rain, rain, rain, rain, rain, wet, soggy, grey, windy, blowy, which quite frankly would be all we would've had to say over the past 2 months if everything was strictly weather related 

 

Anyway obligatory weathervane 

 

 

P.S not looking forward to Weds offerings!

 

 

 

 

 

[snowrye]

cmon guys,who cares if we go a little off topic from time to time its what makes this forum brilliant,and its a welcome change from the monotunus drivel of the weather,ck i enjoy reading about youre adventures,so dont do anything hasty.

been a dry,sunny day here albeit rather breezy and a tad chilly in the breeze,not looking forward to more rain,id sacrifice the rest of winter for some settled dry weather.

[john pike]

heres tuesday night

 

 

winds veering south-south westerly

 

40-50 mph

 

not a great direction for any areas southern coastal regions and east coastal regions re swells

 

rainfall

 

 

heavy rain moving just after midnight

 

it looks to clear within 3-4 hours

 

then another heavier burst following effecting more southern areas but clearing around rush hour

 

so a watch needed and not just the rain

 

temps cold first then warmer when rain arrives

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

winds switch to more south westerly

 

strong gusts around 50mph maybe a 60 mph on coastal regions

 

rainfall

 

 

after morning rain clears

 

more rain enroute for late in the day

 

we should see a mainly dry (daylight hours) afternoon

 

temps

 

 

 

around 8 degrees

 

but will feel chilly when the rain clears

 

back soon with the rest

 

got my dinner

[2810lollypop]

After careful consideration over the last few hours, I have decided to not to pst anymore apart from anything directly concerned with weather. RegardsKerry

noooooooo please keep posting . I love reading your posts , some are hilarious & certainly brighten up my day ( & quite a few others I reckon ) your sense of humour is brilliant ! We all need a smile put on our faces with this rubbish weather & your defo the man who does that ! X

[Paul]

Evening all

 

Just thought I'd nip in quick and say how much I love this thread! The reason I hardly post is because I find it extremely hard to keep on topic (natural born waffler) so rather than have me being told off and having my posts frequently deleted I choose to read rather than post (most of the time)

 

Personally I think its nice to pop in here and read something other than rain, rain, rain, rain, rain, rain, wet, soggy, grey, windy, blowy, which quite frankly would be all we would've had to say over the past 2 months if everything was strictly weather related 

 

Anyway obligatory weathervane 

 

41h8HbUajnL._SX450_.jpg

 

P.S not looking forward to Weds offerings!

 

Just to put things in perspective - I've just had a trawl of all the deleted posts in the last week and can only find 3 or 4 posts from this thread which have been removed - so when you consider the number and diversity of posts in that time, it really is a tiny number. So there really is no need to worry about posts being gratuitously removed just because they aren't strictly weather related

[Iceni]

heres tuesday night

 

 

winds veering south-south westerly

 

40-50 mph

 

not a great direction for any areas southern coastal regions and east coastal regions re swells

 

rainfall

 

 

heavy rain moving just after midnight

 

it looks to clear within 3-4 hours

 

then another heavier burst following effecting more southern areas but clearing around rush hour

 

so a watch needed and not just the rain

 

temps cold first then warmer when rain arrives

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

winds switch to more south westerly

 

strong gusts around 50mph maybe a 60 mph on coastal regions

 

rainfall

 

 

after morning rain clears

 

more rain enroute for late in the day

 

we should see a mainly dry (daylight hours) afternoon

 

temps

 

 

 

around 8 degrees

 

but will feel chilly when the rain clears

 

back soon with the rest

 

got my dinner

 

 

Dearest John - they look exactly the same charts you posted yesterday and the day before that, ad infinitum.... It's like looking into a hall of mirrors with hundreds of reflections in every direction. Unfortunately they all say more rain.

 

As you're a bit of a boffin, what would it take to break this pattern? I know the USA is v cold (photos of snow in Florida and Atlanta) and that tropical warm air from the Caribbean and equator is spawning low after low.

 

Do we have to wait until spring happens in the USA and temperatures equalise a bit? Or is there some meteorological 8th Cavalry which will or can come to the rescue and override this lot. Serious question.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Iceni

[Summer of 76]

Just to put things in perspective - I've just had a trawl of all the deleted posts in the last week and can only find 3 or 4 posts from this thread which have been removed - so when you consider the number and diversity of posts in that time, it really is a tiny number. So there really is no need to worry about posts being gratuitously removed just because they aren't strictly weather related

Paul,

 

I think you have proved the point that this group needs very little moderation when you consider other threads on the forum and what has upset me today is the way everyone seems to be painted with the same brush. If I was in the office I would call the person or persons causing the problem to one side and have a quiet word and hence my point earlier that the PM system should be used or the points warning system.

 

So where do we draw the line about where they aren't strictly weather related as we seem to be getting mixed messages. I really don't want to post in the Lounge area or the chat room with people from all over the country, maybe we need to consider a lounge area for just this region?

 

There are some very good and considerate people in this thread which should be carefully considered when moderators drop in to give us their wise words.

 

 

Chris

[Snowangel-MK]

 

So a bit of perspective needed I think, no-one wants to rip the guts out of here and make it a dry, serious weather discussion only thread, it's just that in recent times it's had some moments where it's just strayed a bit more toward random banter, and a bit further from weather, so the reminder this morning was just to try and tip the scales back the other way a touch, and that's it.

 

Thanks Paul, that's certainly all it was and I'm sorry if some of you took what I thought was a gentle warning personally or feels they are no longer welcome to post in here - these regional threads were originally set up to talk about local conditions and have always been geared for a more general 'chatty' discussion to give all members a chance to post and discuss the weather within the region and also to enjoy reading informative and occasionally humorous posts.

 

Thankfully this thread runs quite smoothly and requires little by way of moderation, however there are times and just recently has been one of those occasions where we can all be guilty of wandering a bit too far off topic at times,  we are very lucky to have members with extensive knowledge in meteorology in this region and the last thing we want to do is lose their valuable posts or the weather warnings in too much banter when there are as Paul has pointed out other areas of the forum for this, including the opportunity to create a personal 'Blog' - we really don't want to turn this into a lecture (a meteorological one or otherwise) so can we just move on now please !

 

Edited February 3, 2014 by MKsnowangel

[Iceni]

Hi Paul.

 

personally I have had a pretty terrible day today for reasons I won't go into and I generally find posting on here to be a bit of light relief, I haven't got a bad word to say about MKsnowangel who is the best forum host around, my issue is with aipoolshark's hammer to crack a nut approach which has, not for the first time, upset posters on this regional forum.

 

There you go I've said it now, ban me if you want, tbh I've got more important things to worry about at present. 

 

Thanks.

 

She is. She's a good sort and a kindly host.

 

Thanks Paul, that's certainly all it was and I'm sorry if some of you took what I thought was a gentle warning personally or feels they are no longer welcome to post in here - these regional threads were originally set up to talk about local conditions and have always been geared for a more general 'chatty' discussion to give all members a chance to post and discuss the weather within the region and also to enjoy reading informative and occasionally humorous posts.

 

Thankfully this thread runs quite smoothly and requires little by way of moderation, however there are times and just recently has been one of those occasions where we can all be guilty of wandering a bit too far off topic at times,  we are very lucky to have members with extensive knowledge in meteorology in this region and the last thing we want to do is lose their valuable posts or the weather warnings in too much banter when there are as Paul has pointed out other areas of the forum for this, including the opportunity to create a personal 'Blog' - we really don't want to turn this into a lecture (a meteorological one or otherwise) so can we just move on now please !

 

735048_4817159100056_1099628638_n.jpg

 

 

I think this endless non-winter is getting to everyone.

 

Day after day of rain with all the extra work it entails - like the car being full of muddy dog prints, the house ditto, the inability to walk anywhere without having a couple of kgs of mud sticking to my wellies after a few footsteps.... It's just vile. I feel so dispirited when I look out each morning and there's another couple of inches fallen overnight.

 

At least snow and frost are clean and dry. I'm beginning to feel like the poor guys in the trenches WWI - but of course, I'm not getting shot at or blown up and it's a ridiculous comparison which I shouldn't make. Imagine how they felt and what they endured!

 

As for those dealing with flooded homes, just awful, my heart goes out to them.

 

Just please make this mud dry up!

 

 

 

Does anyone else think this winter will go down in history for all the wrong reasons ?

 

My memory is pretty much shot but even so,  I can't remember a winter so mild and stormy in my lifetime. My weather station gave up the ghost last year so I don't have the statistics but I can probably count the number of frosts on the fingers of one hand so far. Remarkable given that I live just 3-4 miles from the notorious frost hollow of Rickmansworth. It's a shame that official weather station was closed down several years ago because it recorded some incredibly low temperatures over the years.

 

I'm pleased that my heating bill has been kept down, but I do miss scenes like this :

 

Edited. Ooops, my photos didn't load the first time......

 

 

We've chewed through the heating oil in the last couple of months - Christmas, guests which needed separate rooms staying... The problem is this awful dank humidity which either makes it feel hotter (in Summer) or cold and clammier (in Winter). Our house is pretty well insulated and there aren't any drafts.

 

Husband moaning like mad about it as a tankful costs £12-1,300. I say well that's the price we pay for having visitors. You can't not heat their rooms - we usually leave everywhere we don't use ticking over at 15C - if you just turn the heating off altogether you get worse problems and it's more expensive - so the day before they arrive we turn it up to 18C just so it's reasonably comfortable. If it were 'dry cold' I'm sure it would feel warmer but it's the humidity - it penetrates your bones.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Iceni

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

basically the block to our east which has been threatening to come west has not helped either

 

it had threatened to do it for a few weeks but in the end it has not helped now

 

if it had caused a low to undercut the outlook would have been different

 

my way of thinking is the atlantic normally slows down in february so that should give us a chance of a change

 

feb is believe it or not one of the years driest months

 

there is a slim chance we may tap into a cold north westerly with cold uppers

 

the only snag with that is it will still cause more flooding problems

 

if you look at ecm at 216

 

yes i know fi etc

 

 

 

 

 

 

we might see something wintry

 

however another problem is the block still holds up the low

 

where we need it is to go south east

 

this would help try and shift the colder air to our north east towards us

 

again another snag is high pressure there as well

 

i actually think we may see something change in the charts soon

 

but patience is needed

 

so for now i will keep watching the jet

[john pike]

and 96 looks interesting on ukmo

 

but will update when i do the fax charts later

[SteveCoops]

Well, knowing it's only 3 or 4 posts that have been removed, I'm no longer worried Let's move on everyone and business as usual!

 

Any issues over on the East coast/Thames Estuary with the direction of the wind and the high tides over the next few days?

[Eskimo]

I was just about to do it John lol

As you can see from these charts, the low heads northwards. On its north and west flank, there could be some wintriness as colder air wraps around it from the West...yes...the west. 



Here is the 850's

[Bluebreezer54]

Just to put things in perspective - I've just had a trawl of all the deleted posts in the last week and can only find 3 or 4 posts from this thread which have been removed - so when you consider the number and diversity of posts in that time, it really is a tiny number. So there really is no need to worry about posts being gratuitously removed just because they aren't strictly weather related

 

 Good post Paul, and as you say, it puts things into perspective.

 

Come on folks, lets not overreact and throw the toys out of the pram, there are other topics out there to do that.

 

Keep the faith regionairs.

[Bluebreezer54]

Anyway, cahoots to the weather for now  ( it's getting breezy here ), I'm tuning in to the game of the season so far......Come on the Chels.

 

Have a good evening all

[A.J]

Hi Paul.

 

personally I have had a pretty terrible day today for reasons I won't go into and I generally find posting on here to be a bit of light relief, I haven't got a bad word to say about MKsnowangel who is the best forum host around, my issue is with aipoolshark's hammer to crack a nut approach which has, not for the first time, upset posters on this regional forum.

 

There you go I've said it now, ban me if you want, tbh I've got more important things to worry about at present. 

 

Thanks.

for the record, I have never (to my knowledge) ever moderated anyone of your posts, and indeed after 5 years on the site team have moderated only a handful of posts from this (or any other thread for that matter)......This is a regional weather thread just like all the others and is subject to the same guidelines as the other threads. 99.9% of posts are fine, indeed the thread (and others) would be lost and monotonous if not for the more irreverant/humourous posts that are made in here.....I don't really see what your issue is (other than you seem to want to attack me personally)....I'm also not quite sure what you think gives you the right to post whatever you want and not be subject to the same guidelines as every other member on this forum?.......I'm quite happy to be contacted by pm, but will not be entering into any more on the matter in this or any other thread.....

 

Thank you

[tinybill]

i think in our neck of  the  woods  little fellow  need  looking at   low going  up the channel,