South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/01/14

[Snowangel-MK]

I'm just relieved you were driving, goodness knows how long it would have taken you to get back by train.

I don't think that would have been an option - not for the next few weeks anyway !

[john pike]

ecm london ensembles

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

too much spread on the 11th to take the op seriously

 

will see what the fax shows tomorrow night on that

 

me personally i am not convinced

[MAF]

Yep just watched it, but what I meant was, I think that the BBC are sometimes using the ECM in their graphics for forecast, not necessarily anything to do with the met. They have there own forecaster and weather office. I watched a vid about it not long ago.

 

i think theres a lot of things about Met Office that people either forget about or dont realise. for example; they have an analyst at most RAF bases in the UK, they provide data for the armed forces both land, sea and air, they provide data for the UK agencies (highway, environment, local governent)

personally i would trust a Met Office forecast over any other

[alexisj9]

I don't think that would have been an option - not for the next few weeks anyway !

image.jpg

Exactly.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yes, home after driving 450 miles today, so a little bit tired. I'll post more tomorrow.

Glad your home safe and sound ..... feeling a bit let down that you didn't give us a live OB from the front line though ...

[john pike]

i think theres a lot of things about Met Office that people either forget about or dont realise. for example; they have an analyst at most RAF bases in the UK, they provide data for the armed forces both land, sea and air, they provide data for the UK agencies (highway, environment, local governent)

personally i would trust a Met Office forecast over any other

 

hi maf

 

thats why i use the fax charts

 

they are not always perfect

 

but they are normally pretty close to the mark

[Jax]

Jax, in all fairness, I do take the Micky out of my wife, but I am more in love with her now, than those first few years of marriage, I couldn't think what it would be like coming home to an empty house, without the warm feeling of wondering what the hell I have done this time and how do I get out the latest cock up I made. I think its the knowledge that she is there to support me through the difficult times, the bad days at work, when all you want to do is kick the cat (we haven't got one, but I still want to kick it), the fun times, the birth of the grand kids, the death of a family friend. I know that she will always be there criticising, trying to turn me into her perfect husband, she knowing deep down, that the best she can hope for is the slob that I am. Its a partnership, you give and take, you bend to suit each, and Jax when you meet the right one, something deep down inside tells you, it will be hard, it will be infuriating, you will put your fist through a door in shear rage, but, always there will be that warm glow that I suppose is that terrible thing called love. Man, its fun, I am pleased I done it, and I sincerely hope you will get that bloody annoying bug.But my friend, enjoy your freedom, because you never know when you will get struck down, enjoy everything that is thrown at you. I did and somehow I got a wonderful wife whose 60 today, I been married for more years than I can remember, (but I did get 5 50's and took 5 wickets on 40 occasions) but tomorrow I can absolutely guarantee that I will do something wrong and the battle will re commence.Sorry about this pile of old gobbly gook, but I have had a great night, fine food, no drink and fine company, of her indoors. Can't think of anything to do with weather to finish off with. So goodnight, and everybody have a great evening and day tomorrow.

CK I know and more so I know the hard way, enganged and married the wrong one, divorce to prove it too, and engaged and lost the right one becase I was a poor as a partner and an idiot.

 

In short I know you love your wife and I jest, like you, we all hold close who we care for, near or far.]]]EDIT: no idea why I was an angel delight due to the filter

Edited February 5, 2014 by Jax

[MAF]

hi maf

 

thats why i use the fax charts

 

they are not always perfect

 

but they are normally pretty close to the mark

well i know how much effort goes into the Met Office data input (having seen the RAF weather analysts) so am pretty confident they have got a good handle on things. plus using other data from resources such as ECM then i reckon they've got it pretty well sorted (IMHO)

well as Zebedee said most nights in my very early life....time for bed

night all

[MAF]

I don't think that would have been an option - not for the next few weeks anyway !

image.jpg

i stayed in one of those houses when i was a kid! :o

we holidayed in dawlish warren every summer for 4 years organised by our school. it was a camping holiday, but one year we got put up in local places as the farm was so flooded we couldnt camp on it

[PiggiePalace]

Peaceful and quiet here now apart from the odd gust.....until Round 2  tomorrow afternoon/evening

 

St Ives storm surge- fascinating as well as sad to watch....yet the music is strangely soothing.......bit "Titanic meets "The Mission"http://stivestv.co.uk/all-st-ives-tv-videos/storm-surge-strikes-st-ives-harbour/

 

xxx

Edited February 5, 2014 by PiggiePalace

[john pike]

fax for saturday

 

 

the low showing is going to shift slowly north east

 

hence the problem the isobars will tighten up mid pm

 

this will likely give strong to gale force winds when it does

 

somewhere 50mph again

 

60 mph plus south coastal regions

 

temps

 

 

around 8 degrees

 

rainfall

 

looks wet early am

 

dry for a little while

 

then gusty showers pm

 

overnight showers and still gusty winds but slowly easing overnight

 

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sunday

 

 

still a gusty but not overstrong westerly wind

 

poss veering north westerly later

 

temps

 

 

feeling quite cold around 6-8 degrees

 

there will be gusty showers running in from the west

 

but showers not persistant rain

 

i love the way the 528 dam air keeps swerving the uk

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

no ready yet

 

will follow soon

[john pike]

fax for monday

 

 

interesting chart but just to far out to verify

 

the low to our south is heading north east

 

now first of all that would be rain

 

however as the low head north east will will get an east then a north east flow

 

the 528 air should be over us at the time the winds veer east

 

uppers

 

 

there is a chance we may see something wintry from this

 

however its only an observation and the track of that low is not certain yet

 

now heres ukmo at 120

 

 

fax charts are running with ukmo at present

 

ecm at 120

shows the low a lot further south

 

 

at 144 ukmo shows this

 

 

 

now ecm shows this

 

 

just slightly different

 

i will run fax now on these

 

and should get a better picture tomorrow on that

Edited February 5, 2014 by john pike

[Iceni]

Evening all, got to get away early in the morning, so doubt if I have time to post. Funny talking about emigrating to Canada, one of my old cricketing mates went out about 40 years ago, he was an expert in refrigeration and was snapped up by the government, never really made sense needing refrigeration experts out there, but they do and boy he had a good life. Thought about it myself, but like most never took the plunge.Meal was surperb tonight, think I might have gained a few browny points, makes a change, properly only a few million to get back to evens.MK warning, makes me wonder why people takes such risk, never understand why, perhaps I just not a risk taker, but when you see and feel the power of the winds and wave, then why, what is the thrill I'm missing. Mother Nature has tremendous powers stored within its systems, which are released with such a fury, they can destroy the defences and constructions of men. I been at sea in force 11 and 12 gales, the power is ore inspiring, I was on a large cruise ship, being driven by goodness knows how many horsepower, when it hit a freak wave, captain estimated it at well in excess 40' despite all the momentum and power of the engines, the cruise ship was stopped dead by the force of that single wave, that is power. I suppose because I seen the force of the sea at first hand, I can't see the fascination. As MK everyone please stay safe, it silly to risk yours and others life for a great photo, taking your dog for a walk etc..Funny old night out there, crescent moon, scudding clouds, fairly windy and warm, mostly dry, but a few quick passing showers.

 

Actually it looks very beautiful - Jupiter is due WSW and W is the most lovely (almost) half moon very low and about to set, but the wind is roaring in the trees. What's about to hit us tomorrow night seems almost impossible.

[Iceni]

hi maf

 

thats why i use the fax charts

 

they are not always perfect

 

but they are normally pretty close to the mark

 

 

Isn't that because as John Holmes says there's quite a lot of human input in the production of a fax as opposed to raw model gobbledegook?

 

Can't beat an experienced weatherman's judgement.

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

yep that have the human input added to them

 

shame they come out so late though

[Steve C]

Here are some pictures from this morning (or yesterday morning now) These were taken about an hour and a half after high tide, so earlier ones would have been more dramatic - from Polperro.

 

At least these boats had a safe harbour!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[john pike]

 

mmmmmmmmmmm

 

messy

 

but some interest of some colder conditions 15th on

 

note the big warm jump shown a few days ago is now just above average

 

 

shame its the pub run

[john pike]

early night for me

 

goodnight all

 

same again tomorrow night

 

[Iceni]

Here are some pictures from this morning (or yesterday morning now) These were taken about an hour and a half after high tide, so earlier ones would have been more dramatic - from Polperro.

 

At least these boats had a safe harbour!

 

050214a.jpg050214b.jpg050214c.jpg050214d.jpg050214e.jpg050214f.jpg050214g.jpg050214h.jpg050214i.jpg

 

If only it had been like that last time I visited Polperro.

 

My dog Louis did the most enormous 'you-know-what' (aggravated because he'd been on a long car journey) right on the crowded harbour footpath and it was a very hot day.

 

One of those little blue plastic bags was totally inadequate - in fact I had to run to the nearest pub for a mop and a couple of buckets of water... I won't go on...

Edited February 6, 2014 by Iceni

[alexisj9]

If only it had been like that last time I visited Polperro.

 

My dog Louis did the most enormous 'you-know-what' aggravated because he'd been on a long car journey right beside the harbour footpath. One of those little blue plastic bags was totally inadequate - in fact I had to run to the nearest pub for a mop and bucket of water... I won't go on...

oops lol.

[Steve C]

If only it had been like that last time I visited Polperro.

 

My dog Louis did the most enormous 'you-know-what' (aggravated because he'd been on a long car journey) right on the crowded harbour footpath and it was a very hot day.

 

One of those little blue plastic bags was totally inadequate - in fact I had to run to the nearest pub for a mop and a couple of buckets of water... I won't go on...

Oh dear! :lol:

[Snowangel-MK]

i stayed in one of those houses when i was a kid! :owe holidayed in dawlish warren every summer for 4 years organised by our school. it was a camping holiday, but one year we got put up in local places as the farm was so flooded we couldnt camp on it

Showing your age there Mick....' When I was a lad only the fields flooded now I'm a grandad it's the houses as well ' *runs and hides* .....only one thing worse than being kept awake by a crying baby in the house is the sound of a crying baby when there isn't one in the house - stuff of nightmares !!

[Charltonkerry]

Jax, what surprised me and what writing that load of old cods wallop last night, was that I realised that I loved her for as long as I can remember, and that she wasn't just the person who cooked the dinner, done the washing etc. sometimes when you have been married as long as I have you take your partner for granted and writing that shook me and made me realise that exactly what I have been doing. Still won't stop me taking the mick, or getting in the bad books. To be honest it all came as a bit of a shock to me, always think its strange how writing something down, often for me, makes the answer / solution perfectly clear, that's prober why I write so much old rubbish on here.

Managed to get in the dog house already this morning, by expressing my new found feeling of love to her indoors, ok 6:45 might be a bit early for some old bald headed git, to say he loves you, but just to sit there and laugh, well it kind of hurts, think I will now go back and be my normal grumpy old miserable self, anyway if she loved me as much as I loved her would you expect her to moan and whinge at you, just because you happened to mention if she's got her bus pass yet and reminding her that she make the coffee in the morning, therefore she should get herself out of bed and get the kettle on, surely that's a truly loving request and the answer I thought was yes my dear, not what impossible to with the poor kettle and my posterior.

Dry out and bright out there this morning, slight tint of red in the slowly brightening blue sky's, hopefully it will stay that way, got that rotten trip up to Peterborough via the Little Chef, to interview someone, then got all day meeting re how we going to handle this work and what more resources we require, should be fun, having everyone spending money for me.

Have a great day everyone.

Edited February 6, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[Storme]

Morning from the sleepy haze.

We just had the most red sky ever. It's gone now but will attempt to upload the piccy I took which being as it is on a phone, doesn't show the intensity of the red so well.

* Sorry for waffle. I am tired*

[Captain Shortwave]

Clouding over here, ready for round 22,374 of wind and/or rain of the winter season.