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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    The German weather service model (GME) also has the centre a bit further north and west than previous runs.

     

    12z GFS has the central pressure 10mb deeper than for the same time on the 6z run, same position as the GME @ 48hrs.

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    The mature depression is decaying and starting to fill as it reaches our shores, isobars not a closely spaced so a slight downgrade in the strong wind potential, many more runs to come before we get there so expect some fluctuations in surface details.

     

    post-9615-0-18714700-1391356222_thumb.pn Still fairly potent though.

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Just happened on this one  

    Looks like the occasional rogue waves of rough seas like these we are experiencing this Winter will continue to catch people out.

     

    This Tuesday- Wednesday storm is already looking like the worst I have seen on the GFS this Winter for my area. I think it will be very dangerous all along the Channel, shipping loss is a great worry at these times.

    As this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-26006099 from the BBC shows.

     

    Have we had the worst yet? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    Just happened on this one  

    Looks like the occasional rogue waves of rough seas like these we are experiencing this Winter will continue to catch people out.

     

    This Tuesday- Wednesday storm is already looking like the worst I have seen on the GFS this Winter for my area. I think it will be very dangerous all along the Channel, shipping loss is a great worry at these times.

    As this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-26006099 from the BBC shows.

     

    Have we had the worst yet? 

    I don't think you have to worry unless nearer the time the models suddenly revert back to storm force winds even inland again. Storm force winds at sea however are not that unusual and thats what the latest models have began to show as the storm is weaker.

     

    There is clear signs on the models of the storm not being as strong, will probably end up the same as yesterdays wet and blowy maker.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No storms here until next Saturday possibly. Still too far away to say for sure and as last Saturday showed a last minute downgrade took us out of the firing line on the day.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    A very disturbed ECM from start to finish with no let up in the unsettled stormy weather, low pressure really ganging up on us.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

     

    Southerly winds picking up here ahead of another windy day during Monday with gusts predicted around 50mph, 60-70mph further NW.

     

    http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
     

     

    Southerly winds picking up here ahead of another windy day during Monday with gusts predicted around 50mph, 60-70mph further NW.

     

    Indeed, it seems like another round of severe weather is coming up for the UK. There seem to be two main low pressure areas which are likely to produce intense rain, heavy wind gusts, and finally high storm tides. This will provide a major concern of flooding in the western parts of the UK. I'll discuss the two features in somewhat more detail (with the emphasis on the first low).

     

    Low pressure area next wednesday

     

    The first main low pressure area is forecast to hit the UK with a minimum pressure around 950 hPa in about 60 hours. The low pressure area is already visible on the synoptic charts, as can be seen on the GFS below:

     

    Posted Image

    GFS MSLP T0

     

    The precursor low pressure area which is forecast to undergo rapid cyclogenesis is currently located over Newfoundland (sub-1010 hPa). 

     

    24 hours later, the low is forecast to have deepened to 980 hPa to the south of the steering low between Iceland and Scotland.

     

    Posted Image

    GFS MSLP T24

     

    On T54, the low is forecast to have reached its minimum central pressure, which is about 950 hPa. This means a deepening of 60 hPa in just 54 hours! Though it has happened quite often this winter, it remains an extraordinary rate of deepening. The low pressure area is then located near the southeastern tip of Iceland (check map below):

     

    Posted Image

    GFS MSLP T54

     

    Note the very tight isobars near the low pressure system, which are usually indicative of very strong winds.

     

    The main reason for the rapid deepening of this low is that it is fuelled by a very strong jet stream (winds above 200 mph), caused by a very steep temperature gradient over the Atlantic Ocean that has been there over much of this winter. The very intense jet stream can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

    Netweather forecast for the jet stream on Wednesday 03:00 UTC

     

    The low pressure area is visible just to the north of the jet stream, near Ireland.

     

    Winds

     

    The strongest winds forecast by the GFS are forecast to be above 50 kt, as can be seen on the wind map below:

    Posted Image

    GFS 10m wind (average) T60

     

    Note the large area of 50+ kt winds (>100 km/h) to the southwest of England. This means the maximum winds there could easily be a lot higher, with a maximum of 12 BFT not out of the rule (though this will mainly be confined over sea).

     

    Precipitation

     

    The biggest concern of the storm system is excessive precipitation, because of the risk on flooding mentioned in posts above.

     

    The first band of precipitation is forecast to move ahead of the system and impact mainly the southern parts of the UK. The rain is forecast to start in the southeastern part around Tuesday evening, as shown in the Hirlam chart below:

     

    Posted Image

    Hirlam T48 precipitation/hour

     

    Because the Hirlam model only goes out to 48 hours, a very detailed preciptiation forecast can't yet be made relying on this high-res model. What can be seen, though, is a band of frontal rain with intensities up to 4 mm/h moving toward the UK. Though the intensity isn't very extreme, the rain belt could be slow-moving and still cause a lot of precipitation to fall over some areas.

     

    Accumulated precipitation amounts could be up to 60 mm in 72 hours (including the precipitation that is forecast to fall before the storm will be arriving), according to the WRF model. The areas mainly impacted will be southeastern Ireland and southern Wales. This all can be seen in the chart below:

     

    Posted Image

    WRF accumulated precipitation amounts (T72)

     

    Storm system next Saturday

     

    Following up on the system above, there is also a general consensus between the models of a sub-960 low which is going to impact the UK in the 144H timeframe. The low is forecast to be located slightly to the north compared to the previous low mentioned above, when it arrives near the UK. There are some timing differences between the models, but regarding the strength and track of the low there is a very impressive consensus among the models.

     

    For comparison, The main models and their forecasted tracks can be seen below:

     

    GFS

     

    Posted Image

    GFS T132

     

    ECMWF:

     

    Posted Image

    ECMWF T144

     

    UKMO:

    Posted Image

    UKMO T144

     

    From the comparison once can see that all models agree remarkably well on a sub-960 low making landfall at the northwestern part of Ireland. The main difference is the timing, with the GFS being 12 h earlier compared to the ECMWF and UKMO. It is very impressive to see how well the models agree with each other at such extended timeframe.

     

    Concluding, all signals point toward continued very stormy weather across the UK. There seems to be very little chance of improvement, with the two storm systems mentioned above forecast to impact the UK bringing very unwelcome rain along with very gusty winds. 

     

    Sources:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140202/12/63/hgt300.png

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=25&map=5

    http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    For my home patch this is looking a bit stronger than anything else this winter (or Autumn) for S/E Devon and around Lyme Bay, with a SSE component to the wind so more exposed too.

     

    The Met Office currently go for 73mph gusts at Sidmouth, and 68mph at Exeter. This is slightly higher than we had in December when the strongest winds along the south coast seemed to develop slightly east of us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Tuesday evening and Wednesday's storm remains the same on the latest runs. It will affect the whole country but Ireland, England and Wales will be the worst hit with 60 to 70mph gusts and possibly even more around the coasts.

     

    Saturdays storm has been downgraded slightly overnight on both the GFS and ECM but they still show it to be bad with similar wind speeds hitting the same area's as on Tuesday/Wednesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    SE'ly gales here this morning gusting over 50mph the sound of the wind howling has become all to familiar this winter. 

     

    Dart board low from the 00z pushing in during Tuesday evening, looks like it's going to be a sleepless night for some people, howling gales and rain.

     

    post-9615-0-44036400-1391416278_thumb.gi

     

     

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Strong or not.. we don't need theses storms as many posters have said, if we had this say in November time.. without all these storms it would be exciting.. Now... Not really Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Strong or not.. we don't need theses storms as many posters have said, if we had this say in November time.. without all these storms it would be exciting.. Now... Not really Posted Image

    I still find it exciting! :)

    I feel for those who are affected by it but I cannot change the weather.

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    ECM still deepening that Thursday low more than the other models, heavy rain across southern parts, a problem to model this one it seems

     

    Posted Image

     

    Loads of rain forecast on the GFS. NMM accumulations for SW over next 3 days, shocking!

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Has anyone able to put the gust charts up for tomorrow's storm?

    I think you can only get then from the net weather plus site.

    This storm will probably be on par with the storm we had in the southwest on 23rd December which was pretty bad...strangely enough when I went onto the climate history page of TuTiempo.com the highest gust recorded at Exeter airport was 61mph on 23rd December 2013 but at the time of the storm it felt stronger....during the burns day storm in 1990 I think Exeter airport recorded a gust of 83mph on 28th February 1990....

    A few days ago weather outlook had Exeter pegged at getting up to 78mph gusts so it seems to have been downgraded since then as it's saying we'll get up to 62mph....

    Thankyou

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Has anyone able to put the gust charts up for tomorrow's storm?I think you can only get then from the net weather plus site.This storm will probably be on par with the storm we had in the southwest on 23rd December which was pretty bad...strangely enough when I went onto the climate history page of TuTiempo.com the highest gust recorded at Exeter airport was 61mph on 23rd December 2013 but at the time of the storm it felt stronger....during the burns day storm in 1990 I think Exeter airport recorded a gust of 83mph on 28th February 1990....A few days ago weather outlook had Exeter pegged at getting up to 78mph gusts so it seems to have been downgraded since then as it's saying we'll get up to 62mph....Thankyou

     

    I've looked through this site many times but I do wonder about the accuracy of some of the data that goes in. Locally to me, Lulsgate (Bristol International Airport) is the closest station but temperatures are often a little odd and frequency of rain and fog on dry and fogless days appears. I would think finding a local wunderground station would be better.

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    Has anyone able to put the gust charts up for tomorrow's storm?

    I think you can only get then from the net weather plus site.

    This storm will probably be on par with the storm we had in the southwest on 23rd December which was pretty bad...strangely enough when I went onto the climate history page of TuTiempo.com the highest gust recorded at Exeter airport was 61mph on 23rd December 2013 but at the time of the storm it felt stronger....during the burns day storm in 1990 I think Exeter airport recorded a gust of 83mph on 28th February 1990....

    A few days ago weather outlook had Exeter pegged at getting up to 78mph gusts so it seems to have been downgraded since then as it's saying we'll get up to 62mph....

    Thankyou

     

    Here's the NMM's take, 60-70mph or more gusts across SW England SW Wales at first

     

    Posted Image

     

    Later the strongest winds for N Devon/Cornwall, S Wales and S England coast especially

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Yes I agree, I'd love to get my own weather station one day?

    Exeter airport is only about 5 miles away so it's pretty accurate I guess and not sure if there's any more local weather stations for me

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Here's the NMM's take, 60-70mph or more gusts across SW England SW Wales at first Posted Image Later the strongest winds for N Devon/Cornwall, S Wales and S England coast especially Posted Image

    Thankyou very much Bobby, so maybe a little more potent than the 23rd December storm...I hope everyone stays safe....

    I wonder if there's worse to come for the remainder of February!

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    Thankyou very much Bobby, so maybe a little more potent than the 23rd December storm...I hope everyone stays safe....

    I wonder if there's worse to come for the remainder of February!

     

    Yep looks pretty nasty. There's a huge swell coming as well, could be some coastal flooding at high tides in south Cornwall and Devon especially. Swell at 3am Wednesday + wind at same time, not good

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Really not looking good for west/south at all and like said with high tides this is most certainly going to add too the already super saturated grounds/river levels and sea defences

     

    Time to burrow my head and hide away and hope the IOW stays firmly situated 6 miles from the mainland  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Some big old waves going up the channel too on those charts..

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee on solent .. hampshire
  • Location: Lee on solent .. hampshire

    Met office have put wind warnings out tues / wed

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391472000

    Very strong winds and heavy rain will return to southwestern parts during Tuesday afternoon and evening, eventually spreading into some eastern parts of Northern Ireland later in the evening. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected in many coastal areas, perhaps reaching 80 mph in the most exposed spots Further inland, gusts of 50 to 60 mph are more likely. Strong winds may cause some disruption, particularly due to fallen trees. Large waves and high tides may again give rise to some coastal flooding.

    Edited by Maxum
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Present system looks stalled over the south west which isn't good.

    Slight chance on Wednesday we may get a gust to 50 mph as the winds swing more south westerly otherwise for us Saturday is the one.

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