Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Sainsbo]

Met Office wind map showing 80mph on the exposed coastline for Wednesday, and 50-60mph+ inland for the SW/Wales.

 

A few hours ago it was showing 60mph for exposed coastlines and 40mph inland, so it seems that they may have a better indication on where the main focus will be regarding the windspeeds.

 

[AWD]

Worth noting the high res EURO4 model shows a violent swaythe of winds at 48hrs offshore Southern Ireland;

Maybe a smidgen further south when you compare it to the main models at the same timeframe;

[Man With Beard]

GFS and ECM: Location of the low centre not actually that different at T48, but the strength of the winds are, ECM quite a bit stronger in the centre, must be force 11/12 on the Irish coast and likely to hit the Welsh coast a few hours later probably at force 10/11. Southern counties may escape the worst if the ECM is right, worst storm of the winter for M4 North though? Still, charts have been known to change up to 200 miles at T48 out.

 

 

EURO4 at T48 more like GFS, has strongest winds much further south from the low's centre. SW England would be back in trouble, orange symbols represent mean wind speeds of 69mph (nearly force 12), likely to hit Cornwall at at least 60mph according to this:

 

You can see the worst winds even more clearly below, they're heading ENE at this point:

 

One thing that won't change from run to run though - we're all going to get a good amount of rain on Wednesday, even a bit of snow in the northern hills

[ANYWEATHER]

Finally some good news the ECM and gfs is showing high pressure and dry conditions taking hold as early as t192 tonight. So looks like finally the end is in sight once we get this week out of the way.

Unfortunately, gfs does not show this.....

[stevofunnelcl]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Watch the embedded video there. Very large wind arrows across the South-West (Wednesday)

I watched another video earlier this evening, which showed the isobars really squeezed up. Certainly looked interesting

[JK1]

Winds don't look bad for southeast really, yes 60mph is pretty gusty but nothing that serious, I do understand the ground is very saturated in places

Edited February 10, 2014 by JK1

[vladthemert]

Winds don't look bad for southeast really, yes 60mph is pretty gusty but nothing that serious, I do understand the ground is very saturated in places

Which in itself worry. What risks of waves causing liquefaction

 

study showed waves could cause liquefactionits pdf small but very interesting.

 

http://www.bhs.idaho.gov/pages/Preparedness/PDF/Schools/7%20Why%20Should%20I%20Care%20-%20Liquefaction%20-%20That%20Sinking%20Feeling.pdf

 

hope this thing shifts like good storm but this scary.

[Snowshine]

The Environment Agency seems to lack issuing any flood risk warnings whatsoever in Warwickshire, surrounding areas have Medium Risk warnings and Low Risk warnings, but for some reason our area is always at a Very Low Risk of flooding even though a majority of the Flood Warnings are for rivers in Warwickshire, such as the River Avon, Leam & Stour which are always under a Flood Warning. Quite Annoying as 10mm is predicted in about 3 hours tomorrow.

 

Anyway... Currently what occurs next week is uncertain, however it is more likely to be dryer than wetter.

 

Strange how all the storm talk switched suddenly from a storm on Friday, which has been very heavily downgraded, to Wednesday's storm was has been quite heavily upgraded.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Cumulonimbus123

[Matty M]

ECMWF ensembles appear to broadly go with the operational s more northerly route.

[hec1]

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/long.html

Strong gale, 25 m/s from west-southwest, which is 55mph sustained

[Matty M]

Continued movement from the GFS towards the ECMWF track.

 

[Matty M]

Yes GFS definitely going for the northern track.

Some extreme winds over southern half of Ireland

 

[Sainsbo]

Continued movement from the GFS towards the ECMWF track.

 

 

Yep. Not only in relation to the track, but the intensity too.

[Man With Beard]

Yes, strongest winds over N England by 6pm on Wednesday ... and, more disconcertingly, still deepening, now under 955mb

Highest winds even stronger than 06Z and 12Z runs, though much better for SW

Having seen the EURO4 earlier, still all to play for with the track of this low

Edited February 10, 2014 by rjbw

[Zenarcher]

Ireland gets hit bad on the 18z gusts over 80mph or even 90mph likely,

 

 

[Liam J]

Further adjusts north of the track from the 18z, some extremely windy conditions over Ireland then N England parts of Wales & far south of Scotland. 

[Sainsbo]

GFS showing a small patch of purple on the sustained wind speeds chart from the 18z.

 

 

130km/h = 80mph. Very lucky that that isn't over land!

[weirpig]

Yes, strongest winds over N England by 6pm on Wednesday ... and, more disconcertingly, still deepening, now under 955mb

Highest winds even stronger than 06Z and 12Z runs, though much better for SW

Having seen the EURO4 earlier, still all to play for with the track of this low

yep according to the gfs  60 to 70 mph winds quite widely 

[Liam J]

Mean speeds in excess of 100km/h through the Irish Sea, very unpleasant ferry crossings! 

 

 

 

[January Snowstorm]

Well the 18z is on the cusp of a hurricane hitting Ireland. If this is showing in the morning models it's red alert time and a serious situation. Unlike previous storms aswell its hitting during daytime with many out and about.

[TwisterGirl81]

I think

Ireland and Wales have had it worse in regard to wind this winter than southwest England and going by tonight's track it looks like they are again although I think it'll change again tomorrow....

[Matty M]

Mean speeds in excess of 100km/h through the Irish Sea, very unpleasant ferry crossings! 

 

108.gif

Although the Dublin-Holyhead ferry would make it in super fast time!!

[Costa Del Fal]

For now at least it looks like Cornwall will now be spared of the worst of the winds though 70mph gusts or so still looking likely for a time.

[Matty M]

Just to update the latest 18z Hirlam also going for the northern track.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wednesdays storm is looking to be very fierce, but I mean look at Friday, look at all that rain that could be heading our way :O