Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Summer Sun]

UKMO keeps Friday fairly clam (though most likely wet in the south as the day progresses possibly some snow as this rain tracks north into the colder air during the evening and into the early hours of Saturday) before the next storm sweeps in on Saturday

 

 

By Sunday the next low is lining up in the Atlantic ready to strike

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

More heavy rain to come but the end may be in sight now for the south towards the end of this month and into March with the wettest weather expected to shift to the north west

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2923616

[stevofunnelcl]

Damn, don't want storms next weekend, as the spring tides will have returned

[ANYWEATHER]

The storm for Wednesday could well be the stormiest day for many years, for central England, that's even not thinking about the rain and more floods to come....Worrying times Im afraid....

[Liam J]

Just coming into the realms of the hi res 6km NMM model.

 

Last frame. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bovril]

The storm for Wednesday could well be the stormiest day for many years, for central England, that's even not thinking about the rain and more floods to come....Worrying times Im afraid....

This looks like the winds in London won't be anything to worry about now? Gusts look like all the other storms for here up to date now, that is a relief, hope it downgrades for rest of you as well. Stay Safe!

[sunnijim]

 Reality check needed guys, its obvious this low is going to miss us down south and give northern areas the big winds, unless it sneaks up on us by accident and sends 70mph constant winds blowing roofs off of allready flooded houses.

 

Life, don't talk to me about life!

I cant see how you can actually believe what you are saying ! Its being progged to slam the SW in particular ( check the expected track from the met office) Posts like this can give folk a false sense of security and are just as unwise as the over alarmist predictions we sometimes get here and in the media.

[Liam J]

Gusts not quite as ferocious on the 12z NMM.  Can we stop the bickering please peeps!

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[weirpig]

Gusts not quite as ferocious on the 12z NMM.  Can we stop the bickering please peeps!

 

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yep not quite as bad however still gusts 70 mph ish through wales and midlands  still potent enough.

[Matty M]

ECMWF sticking to it's guns with a more northerly track.

 

Looking very severe for parts of southern Ireland into Wales and central England.

 

[wimblettben]

I cant see how you can actually believe what you are saying ! Its being progged to slam the SW in particular ( check the expected track from the met office) Posts like this can give folk a false sense of security and are just as unwise as the over alarmist predictions we sometimes get here and in the media.

Yes but some models are not showing that now.

 

The worst isn't necessarily going to be for us in the southwest and may instead be for more northern areas.

[Sainsbo]

ECM 12z

 

Not quite as far north as the GFS and HIRLAM have been recently suggesting, but more north than the last run, and a tighter pressure gradient by the look of it.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Matty M]

ECM 12z

 

Not quite as far north as the GFS and HIRLAM have been recently suggesting, but more north than the last run, and a tighter pressure gradient by the look of it.

 

 

 No, it is quite a lot further north than the GFS and inline with Hirlam output

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[Sainsbo]

 No, it is quite a lot further north than the GFS and inline with Hirlam output

 

So it is. My mistake!

[Matty M]

ECMWF is extremely vicious @ 48hrs and would bring some damage to southern Ireland, into western Britain, Wales, northern England.

 

Winds could gust to 80 or even an isolated 90kt gust in parts with a sting-jet which would be likely in such a potent storm.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[Matty M]

Windy enough to the south of Ireland @ 850hPa

 

[weirpig]

ECMWF is extremely vicious @ 48hrs and would bring some damage to southern Ireland, into western Britain, Wales, northern England.

 

Winds could gust to 80 or even an isolated 90kt gust in parts with a sting-jet which would be likely in such a potent storm.

after a quick look at all of the models the ecm does look the most severe . caranage in some areas if it stays like that.  A more northerly track as developed also over the last model run,   chopping and changing no doubt over the coming hours  regarding the positon of the low   possibly the met office may alter some of there warning to cover more areas of the uk  if this trend continues

[Matty M]

after a quick look at all of the models the ecm does look the most severe . caranage in some areas if it stays like that.  A more northerly track as developed also over the last model run,   chopping and changing no doubt over the coming hours  regarding the positon of the low   possibly the met office may alter some of there warning to cover more areas of the uk  if this trend continues

ECMWF has been quite steady with a more northerly track in last few runs.

 

I expect perhaps some movement southeast in the track but still a more northerly track than any offered on the UKM possible track map.

[sunnijim]

ECMWF has been quite steady with a more northerly track in last few runs. I expect perhaps some movement southeast in the track but still a more northerly track than any offered on the UKM possible track map.

We must remain mindful that the Met office have several other models that they pay attention to,so i very much doubt they will alter their warnings on the basis of a couple of model runs.Should the inhouse models back the ECM by this time tomorrow and we have consistancy then other parts of England will join Southern counties at high risk.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Guys please,

 

It's one run, it will change again tonight and tomorrow before we really nail it on, then it may change too, some going north some going south some staying the same.. All I will say is we have cross model agreement on a very nasty storm. Making the flooding problems even worse than they already are..

[Zenarcher]

ECM seems confident the 12z run today has the low in the exact same location as it did 24 hours ago.

 

Wednesday 12pm the purple area wind speeds are between 57 to 68mph mean speeds to the South of Ireland,

 

 

3pm the strong winds head straight into Ireland giving mean speeds over at least 48mph,

 

 

6pm mean speeds across Ireland, Wales and parts of England reach between 40 to 52mph,

 

[Liam J]

ECM tracks the storm towards W/SW Scotland.

 

 

 

[January Snowstorm]

Looks like my location is primed for the largest gusts.

Really warrants a red alert for places like Cork

[terrier]

Finally some good news the ECM and gfs is showing high pressure and dry conditions taking hold as early as t192 tonight. So looks like finally the end is in sight once we get this week out of the way.

[Rammie]

Looks like my location is primed for the largest gusts.

Really warrants a red alert for places like Cork

met ie might give you one yet. Should be good down on Roches point