Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Matty M]

Talking of the off the scale black - look at the 925hPa wind speeds. Is there a chance of these gusts being brought down to the surface?

 

 

Yes, if a sting-jet was to develop which is possible during such rapid developments, although likely to occur in the southwest as the low is still rapidly deepening here.

 

These winds could reach the surface in such conditions.

[Sainsbo]

The Met Office wind map doesn't show anything more than 65mph gusts on the exposed southwest coastline, possibly still a lot of uncertainty on the intensity?

[kate1]

The Met Office wind map doesn't show anything more than 65mph gusts on the exposed southwest coastline, possibly still a lot of uncertainty on the intensity?

I notice the MetO haven't updated their warnings today (they are very late doing so) and yesterday's warning referred to considerable uncertainty on the intensity - it will be interesting to see what today's warning says.

[Mapantz]

Here's the GFS and NMM 18KM gust charts, quite an intense period of winds showing up..

All the main models show it developing quite nicely..

JMA:

ECM:

UKMO:

GEM:

GFS:

The MetOffice will have their own blend but there does seem a pretty good consensus for a period of very strong winds, possibly damaging.

I would expect warnings to appear today unless there's something we're missing, or they are awaiting one more run to get the track and intensity nailed before doing so. The 12Z later should be interesting, like Sainsbo said, there has been a fair few upgrades.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The Met Office wind map doesn't show anything more than 65mph gusts on the exposed southwest coastline, possibly still a lot of uncertainty on the intensity?

 

They will be sitting in the office right now going..

 

Dave: "Mick you seen Wednesday overnight?"

 

Mick: "No one second"

 

slight pause..

 

Mick: "oh lord have mercy"

 

Dave: "What should we do? Issue warnings or update the website?"

 

Mick: "we panic first"

[TwisterGirl81]

I am concerned!  Basically the whole southwest peninsula/south coast having 80+mph gust....This has Burns Day storm written all over it! 

 

I posted a few days ago that the month of February 1990 was a windy month and it ended with the Burns Day Storm on the 26/27/28 of February 1990 even Exeter got 85mph gusts....Well it's been pretty windy for a few months now on and  off, this was just waiting to happen....The Great Storm of 1987 was not as severe in the south west as the Burns Day Storm was in 1990

 

It's all about patterns I guess sometimes.....

[Gael_Force]

The Met Office wind map doesn't show anything more than 65mph gusts on the exposed southwest coastline, possibly still a lot of uncertainty on the intensity?

 

The 06Z Hirlam has near 65mph as the sustained wind speed - track further north than GFS.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Personally I don't think we need to be second guessing what the UKMO will actually do with the warnings but I'd imagine the focus will ultimately be on the rain, yes the winds could potentially get very strong and then there would be another warning to confirm this within say 24 to 36 hours of the event IMHO, if they believe it to be necessary. We are currently under assault from Mother nature down in the South and that is most likely why the winds aren't getting the attention required just yet. My advice as always would be to inform your friends and relatives to simply be aware of the potential. Another week of weather drama ahead and so many depressions to contend with, it is crazy for anyone that ultimately has the responsibility to inform those of us unaware of current developments.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Heres my thoughts on this week..

 

Rain... Wind and rain (poss very windy) more rain even more rain and wind (again poss VERY VERY WINDY)

 

Thats just tomorrow 

[Jimmyh]

i was thinking that, late in updating the warnings. They will come and the matrix will be interesting

[Jimmyh]

bang and the first one has landed warning rain

 

You are subscribed to London & South East England for Met Office.

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England

 

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England : Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham valid from 1500 Fri 14 Feb to 2345 Fri 14 Feb

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The way things are looking, St Jude could well be a teddy bear compared to what we could be seeing Wednesday. Think the media should be getting a move on in alerting joe public about this one tbh.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

bang and the first one has landed warning rain

 

You are subscribed to London & South East England for Met Office.

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England

 

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England : Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham valid from 1500 Fri 14 Feb to 2345 Fri 14 Feb

 

 

The way things are looking, St Jude could well be a teddy bear compared to what we could be seeing Wednesday. Think the media should be getting a move on in alerting joe public about this one tbh.

 

Thing is... Us in this forum could do a better job than them at forecasting it.. that's what annoys me..

[gottolovethisweather]

Nothing else to be said, really.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=7;sess=f2f95321e0ccfe9902bc95a7ff6ded62

Edited February 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[johnholmes]

Thing is... Us in this forum could do a better job than them at forecasting it.. that's what annoys me..

 

Is that a serious comment or simply looking for a wind up?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thing is... Us in this forum could do a better job than them at forecasting it.. that's what annoys me..

Too right we could! We should be putting them out of a job really lol

[legritter]

I think wind warnings will possibly get added over the next few hours ,there is a lot of severe weather too come ,so today the basic stuff then tomorrow any upgrades or downgrades .Late fridays system could go several ways synoptically as its 4 days away ,but if all the right things come together COULD be the bad boy of this winters nightmare ,along with this wednesdays .Met office doing a grand job in a sciense that is so complex ,cheers all .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Is that a serious comment or simply looking for a wind up?

 

John, this was aimed at the Telegraph  Not the met office as I admire them  

Edited February 10, 2014 by Surrey

[johnholmes]

Too right we could! We should be putting them out of a job really lol

 

nd another one-with a deep understanding of meteorology

one does have to admire the confidence in themselves of our younger members.

John, this was aimed at the Telegraph 

 

my apologies

[wimblettben]

Thing is... Us in this forum could do a better job than them at forecasting it.. that's what annoys me..

Not really, I'm shure they have more information then we have with these coming lows.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

nd another one-with a deep understanding of meteorologyone does have to admire the confidence in themselves of our younger members. my apologies

Thing is, I think we do know a lot more than the media about meteorology! For a start they think there's such thing as a mini tornado! Fail...

[johnholmes]

I apologise again if it is directed at the media, my old eyes misreading what you two posted about-apologies

[NO LONGER POSTING]

nd another one-with a deep understanding of meteorology

one does have to admire the confidence in themselves of our younger members.

 

my apologies

 

No worries buddy 

Getting nice and friendly in here today I like it   Unlike the storms coming look a bit "un-friendly"  

[stevofunnelcl]

Wind could really be a feature, looking at some of the charts.

Obviously the flooding issue is the big issue

Once that wind gusts above 50mph, we move into the 'damage' threshold

 

I personally rate it something like:

 

50-70mph gusts - damage possible, slight (mostly)

70mph+ - more significant damage.. the higher the gusts, the more likely

 

Factor in, that recent storms / very high tides, may have weakened structures

 

I'm paying attention to this one

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I apologise again if it is directed at the media, my old eyes misreading what you two posted about-apologies

Haha no worries fella.