Atlantic Storms February 2014

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm going to stand naked on my lawn

Seriously though, stay safe guys.

 

Might not be much lawn left 

[Man With Beard]

Latest GFS has sustained winds touching 65mph into the southwest, gusts easily hitting 85mph and with potential sting-jet likely nearer 95mph.

 

Widespread swathe of inland gusts to 60mph and more likely hitting 70mph as wrap around pushes through.

However i expect this track to be slightly further north come the event. 

 

This storm has large swathe of sustained Hurricane Force winds (a number of 65kt barbs can be seen) just before it makes landfall...

 

I think this system will be the big wind event of the winter and i would think a gust to 100mph is actually very reasonably achieved from this set-up in some exposed southwestern spot.

 

I think this is fairly accurate assessment. An extra issue, though, is that the storm is hitting during a working day. Wednesday evening rush-hour looking really dangerous. The storm surely deserves the same media attention as the St Judes storm?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think this is fairly accurate assessment. An extra issue, though, is that the storm is hitting during a working day. Wednesday evening rush-hour looking really dangerous. The storm surely deserves the same media attention as the St Judes storm?

 

Once the media catch and latch onto it then they will, give it till tonight and I think we will start to see the headlines, as of tomorrow its less than 48 hours out.. The fact it is still on the models this morning is a worry.. It's track will be key to see where the strongest winds are.. If it goes further south then the winds will be strongest in the channel, current track makes the winds strongest over the south further north and the Irish sea and Midlands will see the strongest winds..

[Liam J]

 

Im just going to lift up my rock and get under it..

150km/h gusts for SW England! Just what they need, NOT! So, the stormy spell goes on and on.... Looks like the worse has been saved until last!

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[Matty M]

I would be a little suprised if the MetOffice don't release some Warning in their 11/1130am updates.

 

Certainly deserves to be some mention of potential damaging winds for Wednesday.

[wimblettben]

Everytime a deep low shows up, it gets downgraded downgraded downgraded day by day, everyone espically the southerners seem to forget LOL

Yes exactly!

 

I think people are forgetting this and this is why they are getting so worried, without realising that the models tend to do this with lows every other year.

[Sussex Jules]

Yes exactly! I think people are forgetting this and this is why they are getting so worried, without realising that the models tend to do this with lows every other year.

Sorry to my eyes this is getting upgraded with every set of data coming in. I say upgraded tongue in cheek 'cos that one in December was more than enough for me and I certainly don't want to see anything like that again in a hurry.

[Liam J]

It's happened a few times over the last week or so where the models have overdone the storms slightly and there has been downgrades in wind potential at the last minute. I'm not saying it's going to happen this time but worth bearing in mind and we're still a few days away for the next event. 

[Candice]

Looks like GFS 6Z has completely binned Fri/Sat storm for the moment

[Matty M]

It's happened a few times over the last week or so where the models have overdone the storms slightly and there has been downgrades in wind potential at the last minute. I'm not saying it's going to happen this time but worth bearing in mind and we're still a few days away for the next event. 

 Yea this system was actually dropped from the models for a few days and only reappeared yesterday morning.

 

I personally feel the storm will occur but the track is very much open to debate, further north bringing the worst through Ireland and Northern England or it could go south into the channel.

 

Still i think a wind-storm hitting some part of UK&IRE during Wednesday is now nailed on.

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I pointed out earlier today that yes the models may be over playing the lows this winter..

 

But actually, they have been picking them up at 5 days out and only getting the track nailed on at about 24 hours out, but never really downgrading them.. in fact upgrading them 

[wimblettben]

Sorry to my eyes this is getting upgraded with every set of data coming in. I say upgraded tongue in cheek 'cos that one in December was more than enough for me and I certainly don't want to see anything like that again in a hurry.

But one model has allready completely got rid of the one on Friday into Saturday which is more then just a downgrade.

 

Stands to my point really. The models are all over the place at the moment so I wouldn't take any one particular run as gospel at the moment, even the one for Wednesday.

[Man With Beard]

It's happened a few times over the last week or so where the models have overdone the storms slightly and there has been downgrades in wind potential at the last minute. I'm not saying it's going to happen this time but worth bearing in mind and we're still a few days away for the next event. 

What I've seen is a couple of storms forecast at T144 not materialising by T60 (such as Tuesday's), other than that I don't think the models made too many mistakes once they got within T96. Last Wednesday/Saturday I never saw any forecasts for gusts above 80 mph at any time.

 

The key is when the storms stop deepening - that's when they lose the damaging winds. Last week's storms were always programmed to peak just before reaching the SW. All the forecasts for this Wednesday's storm have been different - it now being consistently forecast to peak over land in the SW - and of course we are now at T60. Remember the St Judes day storm wasn't so strong here because it actually deepened too late, after reaching the UK, giving Force 12 mean wind speeds off The Netherlands.

 

Anyway, we will see!

[Matty M]

But one model has allready completely got rid of the one on Friday into Saturday which is more then just a downgrade.

 

Stands to my point really. The models are all over the place at the moment so I wouldn't take any one particular run as gospel at the moment, even the one for Wednesday.

 Wednesday system is now well within range.

 

Looking through the GFS Ensembles it is clear there will be a wind event, but large spread on exact track, the centre could be over the Isle of Wight or Glasgow.

[stevofunnelcl]

It's only 48 hours away, and time to get concerned

Because Saturday was bad enough, with the mean speeds in the 20's & 30's - gusting 50's & 60's

Nearby garden shed roof sustained a little damage from that

 

Now think sustained 55 to 65, gusting 85 to 95, gives me an idea about how bad it could be (worst case)

 

Winds that high, would be trouble for bridges, high-sided vehicles, structural damage to tree's & buildings

 

Hoping that the models are over cooking this one

Edited February 10, 2014 by stevofunnelcl

[Darandio]

I think this is fairly accurate assessment. An extra issue, though, is that the storm is hitting during a working day. Wednesday evening rush-hour looking really dangerous. The storm surely deserves the same media attention as the St Judes storm?

 

Seems the Express are more interested in Friday, naming the storm the 'Valentines Day Massacre'

 

Although reading above, it seems that the Friday/Saturday one is becoming more unlikely! The Express do it again.

[robb]

Looks like GFS 6Z has completely binned Fri/Sat storm for the moment

06Z GFS ensembles show some very worrying charts though for Fri/Sat, especially coming so soon after Wednesday's storm

[wimblettben]

Seems the Express are more interested in Friday, naming the storm the 'Valentines Day Massacre'

 

Although reading above, it seems that the Friday/Saturday one is becoming more unlikely! The Express do it again.

Please don't listen to the papers, they are awful and confusing the general public!

 

Now people will be expecting a damaging storm only on Friday when in reality there would have allready been one on Wednesday and with no one expecting it.

[cobbett]

Please don't listen to the papers, they are awful and confusing the general public!

 

Now people will be expecting a damaging storm only on Friday when in reality there would have allready been one on Wednesday and with no one expecting it.

It's a bit odd though that the BBC forecasts I've seen this morning just mention wet and windy weather for wednesday. Either the models are overplaying this one or BBC/Met office just being cautious. Next Met office update this morning should tell us one way or the other I suppose

[Costa Del Fal]

Extreme charts for Wednesday now. Could be substantial damage in Cornwall from this if things stay as projected now. Worse than last week.

[Sainsbo]

The last 3 GFS runs have all been consecutively upgrading the wind speeds from the storm. the 18z yesterday showed 80mph gusts for the far southwest, and the 6z is showing that to be 90-95mph. I know it's still a little early to pinpoint specific numbers, but when we are less than 60 hours from a potentially devestating storm, and we are still seeing upgrades, I think it's time to start paying close attention.

 

 

Incase people don't know the conversions, the brightest purple is 93mph,  and the darker purple surrounding it is 87mph. A large swathe of the southwest coastline could be in for 80+mph if this verifies.

 

Sorry if it sounds like I'm ramping, but this generally seems very concerning to me.

 

The WRF NMM just heightens concerns, by showing off the chart gust speeds for coastal areas.

 

 

And still very strong as they move inland,

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Sainsbo

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Extreme charts for Wednesday now. Could be substantial damage in Cornwall from this if things stay as projected now. Worse than last week.

 

I think the whole south coast and southern England need to brace IF the charts continue to show this... 70mph inland with such a wet ground means a lot of trees down ETC.

[Matty M]

This storm has the potential to be the severest wind-storm to hit land in southern UK for 20 odd years.

 

Certainly expected more coverage from the UK MetOffice.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The last 3 GFS runs have all been consecutively upgrading the wind speeds from the storm. the 18z yesterday showed 80mph gusts for the far southwest, and the 6z is showing that to be 90-95mph. I know it's still a little early to pinpoint specific numbers, but when we are less than 60 hours from a potentially devestating storm, and we are still seeing upgrades, I think it's time to start paying close attention.

 

 

Incase people don't know the conversions, the brightest purple is 93mph,  and the darker purple surrounding it is 87mph. A large swathe of the southwest coastline could be in for 80+mph if this verifies.

 

Sorry if it sounds like I'm ramping, but this generally seems very concerning to me.

 

Also notice right in the middle of the deep purple "black" .. of the chart.. never seen that before on these charts..

[Gael_Force]

Also notice right in the middle of the deep purple "black" .. of the chart.. never seen that before on these charts..

 

Talking of the off the scale black - look at the 925hPa wind speeds. Is there a chance of these gusts being brought down to the surface?