Atlantic Storms February 2014

[JK1]

 

This chart shows it all really. 80mph gusts for the south west, and on exposed coastlines and hills I expect that would be considerably higher. Even inland, gusts getting up to 60mph as the storm moves North East.

For the gust chart they use Knots for wind instead km/h so 100 knots would mean 115 mph and 130 knots would mean 149mph it seriously can't be that high? confused

Edited February 10, 2014 by JK1

[alexisj9]

For the gust chart they us Knots for wind so 100 knots would mean 115 mph and 130 knots would mean 149mph it can't be that high? confused

I think it's KPH on those charts.

[Eskimo]

I think it's KPH on those charts.

It is yes. 

[JK1]

It is yes. 

it says nouedes in brackets which is French for knots. unless it labelled wrong

Edited February 10, 2014 by JK1

[Eskimo]

it says nouedes in brackets which is French for knots. unless it labelled wrong

It's strange I know, although according to the graphic above, there would be 150kt gusts or 172mph. I think it represents kph, so 150kph would be 93mph, which is far more sensible. 

[NL]

The barbs are in Knots and the colours represent KPH..

[Sainsbo]

Slight upgrades rather than downgrades on the overnight runs, with the GFS now getting the low down to 961mb. UKMO and ECM agreeing more with the GFS, and some of the ensembles still look very nasty.

[alexisj9]

Looked on five different models and the first low is now on all of them. Looks like it has been decided that it is coming. Hoping for downgrades in the next few runs though, as it looks like a very potent little bugger.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Will post some charts up soon but anyone noticed anything this winter..

 

When the models are picking lows up 5 days out.. they are not mistakes.. they are actually picking up nasty lows and developing them further...

 

Something we don't usually see..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Currently this morning there are 2 lows we need to watch...

 

Number one is Wednesday Night..

 

This would bring some VERY strong winds to the Southern half of the UK with some exceptional gusts on the coast..

 

 

 

Very good model agreement on this.. Track not nailed but we will know tomorrow... 

 

Then Fridays...

 

This is one bad boy storm.. Un like the other one that will pack a punch it rattles through pretty quick.. This one hangs about a bit..

 

[Chris K]

Everytime a deep low shows up, it gets downgraded downgraded downgraded day by day, everyone espically the southerners seem to forget LOL

 

Depends in what context. The winds may 'downgrade' (or 'upgrade' for those who don't want it...), but that just means it is more likely that the Low pressure systems will have more time to deposit its piddle over areas for longer.

 

Bit of a lose-lose situation really. Either it is really strong winds & rain with its associated hazards (but at least it tends to blast through more quickly), or it is less windy with a tendecy to have more rainfall accumulation.

 

Good to see signs of things slowly calming down after this week....but it would be nice to start seeing that enter the reliable timeframe...and less trough influence...

Edited February 10, 2014 by Chris K

[johnholmes]

not sure about the models showing things 'calming down' and the Exeter 120h Fax shows yet another active system, wind and rain wise for just those areas that require at least two weeks of dry sunny weather to help their situation

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

note also on the above Fax just how far south in the Atlantic the 528dm thickness line is predicted to get, not often the Azores is north of it!

Edited February 10, 2014 by johnholmes

[Liam J]

Powerful depression on the fax charts heading N&E over the UK with severe W to NW'ly gales on it's southern flank with the wrap around occlusion. 

 

 

[alexisj9]

not sure about the models showing things 'calming down' and the Exeter 120h Fax shows yet another active system, wind and rain wise for just those areas that require at least two weeks of dry sunny weather to help their situation

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

note also on the above Fax just how far south in the Atlantic the 528dm thickness line is predicted to get, not often the Azores is north of it!

yuk I hope that changes, loads of rain in the Thames catchment area off of that.

Powerful depression on the fax charts heading N&E over the UK with severe W to NW'ly gales on it's southern flank with the wrap around occlusion. 

 

fax.giffax1.gif

Another yuk, that looks dangerous.

[cobbett]

Could be a quite a hefty swell around Cornwall on Wed/Thurs, but low seems to pass through pretty quickly, so brief

 

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display1.cgi?a=euro_wave

[Matty M]

Could be a very damaging storm for some parts, exact track still not nailed down but somewhere is likely to get hit hard.

 

[Nick F]

Wednesday's low looking nasty, with wind gusts of 60-70mph even inland across southern/central Britain, perhaps 80mph around southern and western coasts, maybe odd isolated 80-90mph on exposure SW England/ SW Wales. This probably one of if not the strongest storm yet to pass this winter for southern Britain. Plus another 20-30mm in places on top of the 10-20mm tomorrow. Deeply concerning this rain and the strong winds.

 

Saturday's low concerns me too, though uncertainties wrt to track and depth. GFS and UKMO suggest a deep low tracking NE across England and Wales, however, ECM for now has a shallow low moving across southern England. GFS has performed well so far with these Atlantic depressions, ECM has been jumping all over the place. A look at the EC ensembles for Sat show a fair few members bringing a deeper low NE as per UKMO and GFS:

 

 

As do GEFS ...

 

[Liam J]

Anywhere from N England southwards looks to be at risk ATM as the depression tracks NE. Might be a few days before we know the exact path this storm will take. 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[alexisj9]

Anywhere from N England southwards looks to be at risk ATM as the depression tracks NE. Might be a few days before we know the exact path this storm will take. 

 

2.png1.png

Is that the mean wind on those charts?

[Liam J]

Is that the mean wind on those charts?

Those are the gust speeds from the 6z GFS.

[Nick F]

Is that the mean wind on those charts?

 

No, they are gusts, mean wind speeds for those time frames 30-45mph inland, 40-55mph along coasts.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Nick F

[Richie V]

I've always said for the large part, the gfs is fantastic for these weather types. Anything else though, and it really struggles bad.

Wednesday's low looking nasty, with wind gusts of 60-70mph even inland across southern/central Britain, perhaps 80mph around southern and western coasts, maybe odd isolated 80-90mph on exposure SW England/ SW Wales. This probably one of if not the strongest storm yet to pass this winter for southern Britain. Plus another 20-30mm in places on top of the 10-20mm tomorrow. Deeply concerning this rain and the strong winds.

 

Saturday's low concerns me too, though uncertainties wrt to track and depth. GFS and UKMO suggest a deep low tracking NE across England and Wales, however, ECM for now has a shallow low moving across southern England. GFS has performed well so far with these Atlantic depressions, ECM has been jumping all over the place. A look at the EC ensembles for Sat show a fair few members bringing a deeper low NE as per UKMO and GFS:

 

ENS120.gif

 

As do GEFS ...

 

gfsens_120.png

Wednesday's low looking nasty, with wind gusts of 60-70mph even inland across southern/central Britain, perhaps 80mph around southern and western coasts, maybe odd isolated 80-90mph on exposure SW England/ SW Wales. This probably one of if not the strongest storm yet to pass this winter for southern Britain. Plus another 20-30mm in places on top of the 10-20mm tomorrow. Deeply concerning this rain and the strong winds.

 

Saturday's low concerns me too, though uncertainties wrt to track and depth. GFS and UKMO suggest a deep low tracking NE across England and Wales, however, ECM for now has a shallow low moving across southern England. GFS has performed well so far with these Atlantic depressions, ECM has been jumping all over the place. A look at the EC ensembles for Sat show a fair few members bringing a deeper low NE as per UKMO and GFS:

 

ENS120.gif

 

As do GEFS ...

 

gfsens_120.png

[Matty M]

Latest GFS has sustained winds touching 65mph into the southwest, gusts easily hitting 85mph and with potential sting-jet likely nearer 95mph.

 

Widespread swathe of inland gusts to 60mph and more likely hitting 70mph as wrap around pushes through.

However i expect this track to be slightly further north come the event. 

 

This storm has large swathe of sustained Hurricane Force winds (a number of 65kt barbs can be seen) just before it makes landfall...

 

I think this system will be the big wind event of the winter and i would think a gust to 100mph is actually very reasonably achieved from this set-up in some exposed southwestern spot.

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Im just going to lift up my rock and get under it..

[Richie V]

I'm going to stand naked on my lawn

Seriously though, stay safe guys.

 

Im just going to lift up my rock and get under it..