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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

12z GFS developing serious Atlantic storm @ 72hrs.

 

Posted Image

Very unlikely to verify!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Very unlikely to verify!

Why? obviously the exact chart will not verify but i do believe a significant wind-storm hitting some parts of UK & Ireland at that time range is increasingly likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Crikey 16 severe flooding warnings at the moment, 14 in the south East.

 

Its all that welsh rainfall I bet, Bobby. Can I blame you now or would that not be fair? Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79339-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-050214-16z/?p=2921471

 

No joke though given that this is a serious situation and anybody away from such watercourses should count themselves very lucky. Just been over to the model discussion thread and suffice to say, another very active week is ahead of us.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

UKM beginning to pick up developing low in the southwest approaches @ 72hrs on tonight's 12z.

 

Posted Image

think eyes should now  look at  the Thames cobra  has  gone in to session again

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

UKM placement of low @ 96hrs.

 

In reality the low would likely be somewhat deeper than shown on this low-res output.

 

--- And probably as a result further northwest.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Matty M
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Its all that welsh rainfall I bet, Bobby. Can I blame you now or would that not be fair? Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79339-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-050214-16z/?p=2921471

 

No joke though given that this is a serious situation and anybody away from such watercourses should count themselves very lucky. Just been over to the model discussion thread and suffice to say, another very active week is ahead of us.

 

Probably, 74mm recorded here since Friday evening, all running straight off saturated ground into the rivers and downstream. Posted Image

A lot more to come next week as well, can only see the flooding getting worse, crazy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Events
  • Location: Haverhill - Suffolk - East Anglia - UK

Today's GFS 12z is an upgrade compared with Saturday's GFS 12z with regards to Wednesday's storm.

 

It's well within the reliable time-frame now at T+80.

 

This really is a storm to watch, with further upgrades possible. Especially so with the rapid drop in atmospheric pressure prior to the storm hitting England and Wales. Bombogenesis!!

 

Widespread gusts inland of 75mph and 90mph arounds coasts and exposed locations if the 12z varifies.

 

One to watch!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Probably, 74mm recorded here since Friday evening, all running straight off saturated ground into the rivers and downstream. Posted Image

A lot more to come next week as well, can only see the flooding getting worse, crazy weather.

 

Thanks for that, I don't pop into your regional very often and did wonder what sort of amounts you had suffered, scary stuff. A bleeding big does of patience needed for those in the line of fire so to speak, all our thoughts are with you I'm sure. I'm looking forward to a different week after next, here's hoping. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Today's GFS 12z is an upgrade compared with Saturday's GFS 12z with regards to Wednesday's storm.

 

It's well within the reliable time-frame now at T+80.

 

This really is a storm to watch, with further upgrades possible. Especially so with the rapid drop in atmospheric pressure prior to the storm hitting England and Wales. Bombogenesis!!

 

Widespread gusts inland of 75mph and 90mph arounds coasts and exposed locations if the 12z varifies.

 

One to watch!!!

 

Although most of the most explosive developments come courtesy of the GFS, this is indeed looking like a very lively week ahead with a crazy mix of weather types all on offer. Even if I'm into active weather like many others, we surely need a break from all this raging zonal madness don't we? Are the weather gods listening? Yet another Winter for the record books whichever way one views things I suppose. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex

Today's GFS 12z is an upgrade compared with Saturday's GFS 12z with regards to Wednesday's storm.

 

It's well within the reliable time-frame now at T+80.

 

This really is a storm to watch, with further upgrades possible. Especially so with the rapid drop in atmospheric pressure prior to the storm hitting England and Wales. Bombogenesis!!

 

Widespread gusts inland of 75mph and 90mph arounds coasts and exposed locations if the 12z varifies.

 

One to watch!!!

This has been popping up in the various models a few times in the last 24 hours; a small but very potent system deepening quickly and reaching peak depth as it crosses the UK with some very nasty winds to its south.  So far, except for the end of October, the southeast has avoided anything particularly nasty wind-wise. This would be a bad one.

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Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

Today's GFS 12z is an upgrade compared with Saturday's GFS 12z with regards to Wednesday's storm.

 

It's well within the reliable time-frame now at T+80.

 

 

These days, I no longer believe there is any such thing as reliable time frame Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I just don't see it being as bad as shown personally. The only way I see it being very bad is that it deepens very fast without anyone knowing about it.

 

Expect it to keep changing until nearer the event where a much less extreme version will happen.

 

Even if it did verify it would probably only be the same as the storm back in October last year. Nothing too devasting like the 87 storm, just one that may uproot a few trees.,

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I just don't see it being as bad as shown personally. The only way I see it being very bad is that it deepens very fast without anyone knowing about it. Expect it to keep changing until nearer the event where a much less extreme version will happen. Even if it did verify it would probably only be the same as the storm back in October last year. Nothing too devasting like the 87 storm, just one that may uproot a few trees.,

On recent runs, it has been shown to bomb across southern parts on Fri/Sat, you can't really compare storms until after they've occurred but suffice to say, synoptically, comparable to the burns day storm.
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

This has been popping up in the various models a few times in the last 24 hours; a small but very potent system deepening quickly and reaching peak depth as it crosses the UK with some very nasty winds to its south.  So far, except for the end of October, the southeast has avoided anything particularly nasty wind-wise. This would be a bad one.

Not strictly true that,October was really just alot of media hype,a few local gusts of 80mph but within an hour timeframe.However you forget its equal gust wise on Christmas eve in the SE,it went on for several hours and caused more widespread damage.
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Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

What is the highest number of severe flood warnings you've ever seen at one time? I'm not sure I remember seeing sixteen.

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

I really hope we don't need an "Atlantic storms March 2014" thread.

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