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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

     

    Is that Emsworth area? Looks like it to me. They have been having a bit of a problem that way. I have to head over there on the 20th and the charts aren't looking good for then either.  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Hope it's ok to ask these questions in here, seems like the best place but please move if not.

     

    How are "storm lovers" feeling about what's going on? Because of the problems in the South-West (and all around my area too, just not making the nationals), have you started feeling a little embarrassed about wanting big storms to hit? I've lived near the coast most of my life and I love seeing massive waves crash on the beach and feeling the force of a strong gale. But I'm now feeling I can't look forward to these storms any more because you know the trouble they are causing.

     

    Or is anyone after another 1987 and are actually getting excited by what next week might bring? I was just a boy in 1987, living slightly inland in the South East, and I remember being scared out of my mind waking up at 2am in the morning, and looking out of my window, it really did seem like the world might end - but I'm kind of glad I got to experience it. Maybe some on here are too young to remember,or maybe lived in a different part of the country, and would like to know what the fuss was all about.

     

    I imagine it's a tricky thing if you love storms or want to experience the extremes of nature. Some of the charts for next week clearly fit that category, though far from nailed on. But with the winter we're having, has it become wrong to want the worst charts for next week to actually happen?

     

    A very good question, but a very hard one to answer. I'm a storm lover myself, I love the thrill of it, but when I see scenes of flooded homes and peoples lives ruined, it does break my heart. It would be horrible to have to go through something like that, and I would never wish it on anyone. That being said though, we can't change the weather - we can merely make the most out of a bad situation, so if they are here, I'll try to "enjoy" them, but I really do hope that local councils and public services are able to help people protect their properties, I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

     

    As for the storms next week, the ECM this evening doesn't seem quite as potent as it's last few outputs, which is a bit of good news, however it does bring in another storm like we have had this week again on the 13th, which does have some backing from the GFS, which makes it into a very nasty looking low that would likely do a lot more damage than some of the storms as of late. The GFS also has it intensifying as it travels over the UK rather than weakening, which isn't good. None of the modesl agree on the timing, and may get rid of it completely give it a few runs. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

     

    ECM:

     

    Posted Image

     

    GFS a bit more progressive, and has the potential low showing about 12 hours earlier.

     

    Posted Image

     

    UKMO also showing signs of a low on the 13th, but looking more similar to the ECM, rather than the GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Looking like after early next week we should see a slow improvement thankfully. The ECM and ukmo doesn't look as potent in the storms for early next week now thank god. And at least we are seeing neap tides this weekend so we shouldn't see much coastal flooding thankfully. All in all hopefully light at the end of a very long tunnel next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    Looking like after early next week we should see a slow improvement thankfully. The ECM and ukmo doesn't look as potent in the storms for early next week now thank god. And at least we are seeing neap tides this weekend so we shouldn't see much coastal flooding thankfully. All in all hopefully light at the end of a very long tunnel next week.

    I really hope you are right terrier but for the South Coast it looks like almost non-stop rain still for the next couple of weeks at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    If a solitary image could sum up the entire winter thus far, this would be the one!

     

    Bish

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    After this weekends storm there may be another 1 on the way on Tuesday or Wednesday and possibly a second one on Thursday.

     

    Tuesday/Wednesday storm

     

    GFS: Sends a low to the NW of Scotland bring severe gales.

    post-6686-0-26284700-1391808881_thumb.pn

     

    ECM: Shows the low to the NW of Scotland but much weaker. It also sends a low pressure system through the English channel. On the 00z run it had this very deep but on the 12z it's been downgraded slightly. Over the past few runs the ECM has changed around a lot and is clearly struggling with this current set up. At least that very deep low it had yesterday hitting Ireland has gone,

     

    Yesterday

    post-6686-0-04062300-1391809041_thumb.pn

    Today

    post-6686-0-64149400-1391809077_thumb.pn

     

    UKMO: It has been the most consistent out of them all and sticks with a low crossing Ireland, Wales and England giving severe gales.

    post-6686-0-48229000-1391809156_thumb.pn

     

    JMA: Similar to the ECM.

    GEM: Also similar to the ECM.

    NAVGEM: Looks like the GFS but has the low over the NW of Scotland more inland.

    CMA: Showed a deep low over England yesterday but thankfully has got rid of it today.

     

    Overall - The models remain uncertain about about this storm either we may see both a low head to the NW of Scotland and bring severe gales and a English channel low also bringing strong winds. Or as the UKMO shows a low passing over the UK.

     

    Thursday Storm

     

    GFS: Shows storm force winds hitting Ireland and Northern England the worst.

    post-6686-0-34073200-1391809458_thumb.pn

     

    ECM: Also brings in a storm however not as strong as the GFS.

    post-6686-0-67766200-1391809490_thumb.pn

     

    UKMO: Similar to the ECM a low sits to the West of the UK bringing severe gales to Ireland.

    post-6686-0-12399800-1391809576_thumb.pn

     

    JMA: Brings a low across Southern England but the worst of the winds are out at sea and miss land but still severe gales along the coasts would be possible.

    GEM: Weak low pressure over Southern Scotland bringing wet and windy weather with it but nothing severe.

    NAVGEM and CMA: Similar looking nothing stormy just a low bringing wet and windy weather to the West.

     

    Overall - Most of the models point to a low pressure system arriving so there is a chance. The GFS is the most extreme out of them all and goes with little support as the other models go for something less severe.

     

    I know these storms are getting a bit tiring I can't remember a time when the Atlantic was so active, this pattern we are in now is just the perfect recipe with all the correct ingredients for powerful storms to reach our shores. I hope this update clears any confusion on next weeks potential storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    The wind is now blowing, the customary rattle and whoosh of the storm we are so familiar with , the sea is in a state, such that only gulls await the smashed remains of life, in the flotsam all along the coast, how they fly in this weather is amazing and a demonstration pure superiority. We are so small. I am sure they laugh at us in this weather, they know full well that one mistake and your dinner.....

     

    LOW 946mb West of Ireland, satellite photographs are looking menacing, animation shows a high rotation rate around the eye IMO.Posted Image

    Edited by Rustynailer
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    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    The wind is now blowing, the customary rattle and whoosh of the storm we are so familiar with , the sea is in a state, such that only gulls await the smashed remains of life, in the flotsam all along the coast, how they fly in this weather is amazing and a demonstration pure superiority. We are so small. I am sure they laugh at us in this weather, they know full well that one mistake and your dinner.....

     

    LOW 946mb West of Ireland, satellite photographs are looking menacing, animation shows a high rotation rate around the eye IMO.Posted Image

     

    Hi Rusty, "only gulls await the smashed remains of life, in the flotsam all along the coast" how true this remark is! So much flotsam on the shore at the moment that it is really interesting to take a stroll along the strand line. Stay safe tomorrow and watch out for Tuesday/Wednesday, I feel that has more potential than tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Hi Rusty, "only gulls await the smashed remains of life, in the flotsam all along the coast" how true this remark is! So much flotsam on the shore at the moment that it is really interesting to take a stroll along the strand line. Stay safe tomorrow and watch out for Tuesday/Wednesday, I feel that has more potential than tomorrow.

    How do.

    Had a great time beach combing this winter. Got a yard full of driftwood LOL The Magicseaweed wave charts look like Saturday and Sunday for the roughest seas in just shy of 50 year period http://magicseaweed.com/news/the-50-year-storm/6070/

    It is never endingPosted Image

    Edited by Rustynailer
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    Really hammering down for a few hours, especially heavy now. Analysis suggests the low was at 942mb at 6pm carrying hurricane force winds, probably around the max depth, could possibly go a bit lower though.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Fairly windy out there but I imagine nothing like later tomorrow as the occluded front moves in, looks worse than the last storm and that was probably the strongest we've had here this winter.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Hi Rusty, "only gulls await the smashed remains of life, in the flotsam all along the coast" how true this remark is! So much flotsam on the shore at the moment that it is really interesting to take a stroll along the strand line. Stay safe tomorrow and watch out for Tuesday/Wednesday, I feel that has more potential than tomorrow.

    and what about the jetsam half of the cornish coast must be in the sea by now !!!...
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    Posted
  • Location: S.N. Herefordshire N.S.W.
  • Location: S.N. Herefordshire N.S.W.

    Hammering it down here. Becoming concerned. Even two/three hours with rain like this will cause big issues.

    What sort of issues do you fear? Marden, Sutton & Bodenham are becoming difficult to access as it is...

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    What sort of issues do you fear? Marden, Sutton & Bodenham are becoming difficult to access as it is...

     

    About an inch of rain here already from this front, all heading off the saturated Welsh mountains into the Severn and other rivers, not good for those downstream for sure...

     

    A lot more forecast tomorrow as well. Seems the flooding will just get worse and worse into next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Southern Flank of the low, frankly looks dangerous

     

    https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/431912679645540352/photo/1

    Ohhh Boyyy !!! 

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Batten those hatches..

    Stay safe guys

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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Weather Preferences: Windstorm, Thunderstorm, Heavy Squally, Blustery Winds
  • Location: East London

    Really hammering down for a few hours, especially heavy now. Analysis suggests the low was at 942mb at 6pm carrying hurricane force winds, probably around the max depth, could possibly go a bit lower though.

    Posted Image

    Fairly windy out there but I imagine nothing like later tomorrow as the occluded front moves in, looks worse than the last storm and that was probably the strongest we've had here this winter.

    I imagine that wind speed could cause higher gusts up to 140mph winds with a sea level pressure of 942mb, as a Cat 4 hurricane that will make landfall in Ireland, South West of England and the Southern England. Edited by Storm Track
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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Some T and L over S Ireland atm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: T/Storms, Snow, Extreme Rain, Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level

    Has this been underestimated?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Has this been underestimated?

    I think we will find out pretty soon http://www.xcweather.co.uk/  According to this strongest winds for my area not til tomorrow lunchtime tho.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    ^^^ Oh I know Rich hence I have never taken the bait to any of his previous posts but this was a step too far. Im chilled

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

    ^^^ Oh I know Rich hence I have never taken the bait to any of his previous posts but this was a step too far. Im chilled

    It does wear thin I must admit mate!! Glad you've chilled!!

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