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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Did you find out where there were courses on understanding them?!

    Lol - It's like trying to divide by zero, even Stephen Hawking was bamboozled!
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

     

    as one would say...

     

    oooooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

     

    no idea what that means?>

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    A change of wind direction to the south takes us out of the firing line once again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    One last comment on the expected wave heights off cornwall tomorrow - At Sennen Cove....

     

    post-11460-0-25471500-1391779347_thumb.p

     

     

    Still big !

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #010ISSUED: 1245UTC FRIDAY 7TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WALES & IOM, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN & NORTHWEST ENGLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHWEST SCOTLANDHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF FLOODING - WALES, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND

     

    IN EFFECT FROM 1800UTC FRIDAY 7TH UNTIL 1200UTC SUNDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    A DEEP LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TRANSITING NORTHEAST, GENERATING SEVERE GALES, HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE WAVES

     

    DISCUSSION:

     

    THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF THE UK DURING THE WEEKEND. A SUB-950MB LOW REACHES IT MOST INTENSE WEST OF IRELAND BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND. AHEAD OF THIS, A FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS THE UK BRINGING GALES WITH GUSTS UP TO 60MPH FOR MOST WESTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE REAR EDGE DURING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FROM EARLY MORNING SATURDAY ONWARDS, A TIGHTLY WRAPPED OCCLUSION WILL GENERATE FURTHER RAINFALL AND GUSTS THROUGH IRISH AND CELTIC SEA AREAS BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER FROM NOON ONWARDS.

     

    THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER GUSTS UP TO 70MPH THROUGH THE CHANNEL, SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF ENGLAND ALONG WITH HIGHER GROUND IN ALL WATCH AREAS. COASTAL AREAS OF THE CELTIC SEA MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVES WITH LONG SWELL PERIODS, THOUGH TIDES ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS OCCASIONS THIS WINTER. SOME INLAND GUSTS MAY REACH 70MPH OWING TO LEE WAVE EFFECTS AND WHERE STRONGER SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-30MM EXPECTED WIDELY OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND, WITH GREATER THAN 40MM EXPECTED FOR HIGH GROUND OF WALES, WESTERN ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND. AS A RESULT SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING. THIS WATCH MAY BE COMPLEMENTED BY A WARNING LATER. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. DIRECT COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT ADVISED.

     

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

     

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Posted Image

     

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Fri 07 Feb 2014 06:00 to Sat 08 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Thu 06 Feb 2014 17:22


    Forecaster: TUSCHY

     

    Two level 1 areas were issued for SE-France, the Vosges and NW/W-C Italy mainly for excessive rain. Coastal areas also see an isolated large hail, severe wind gust and tornado risk.

    A level 1 was issued for SW-UK mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

    SYNOPSIS

    A wavy upper streamline pattern persists over Europe. One sharp trough crosses the W/C Mediterranean from west to east while a less defined and broad trough over SE Europe slides east/southeast. Another intense extratropical cyclone develops southwest of Ireland and attendant rain and wind spread east to Portugal, Spain, France, UK, Scotland and Ireland until 06Z.

     

    Regarding fronts, a lengthened front runs from N-Algeria all the way to S-Sweden. Its structure becomes wavy due to the interaction with the Alps and falling pressure over the NW Mediterranean. The sub-950 hPa depression SW of Ireland sends pronounced fronts to W-Europe.

    As a side-note:
    A confined but intense onshore wind-event assumes shape over parts of Benelux and N-Germany as a sub-980 hPa depression over SE-UK (06Z) shifts to the northeast.
    Models like GFS still expect a fracturing cold front while moist air from the occluded front circles the center and forms a modest warm-seclusion. This scenario is most often seen in offshore marine cyclogenesis, but this time is forecast onshore. A confined area with 850 and 700 hPa winds in excess of 30 m/s evolves along the back-bent occlusion and affects Benelux and NW Germany until the late afternoon hours. Severe to isolated damaging winds are forecast. No DMC activity is forecast and hence this event won't be reflected with the issuance of a level area. Please refer to the latest forecasts of the respective national weather centers.

    DISCUSSION

    ... S/SE France and NW Italy ...

    Eastward moving cold front becomes wavy as the 980 hPa depression over the S-North Sea lifts to the N/NE while a temporal drop of the surface pressure N of the Balearic Islands occurs. This causes a temporal slow-down of the front especially over the NW Mediterranean area. Also, the mid/upper impulse splits into a less active northern part which lifts to the NE towards Denmark and a stronger southern piece, which enters the NW Mediterranean during the start of the forecast.

    Large-scale forcing and dynamics are favorable ... on the one hand due to modest QG forcing with the southern piece and on the other hand due to the right entrance of a powerful 45 m/s mid-layer jet, centered over NW Germany.

    Influx of moist and unstable Mediterranean air towards SE-France is forecast with forward trajectories showing a good hookup to the offshore plume of 9-10 g/kg mixed-layer mixing ratios. With steep lapse rates aloft, 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE off the SE coast of France are epxected. Setup supports a N-S aligned cluster with showers and thunderstorms over SE France, probably back-building to the south. Weak MUCAPE spreads far onshore and the lightning area was expanded north conform to that scenario. With moisture having enough time to advect far north and with the entrance region of the intense mid-layer jet displaced to the north, a broad area from SE France to Switzerland will see heavy rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms. Those storms should remain non-severe but they should add local bursts of heavy rain which could bring 12-h rainfall amounts well in excess of 50 mm ... especially over the Vosges and SW-Switzerland.

    Regarding DMC probabilities, the immediate coastal areas of SE France will see the highest risk ... especially tail-end storms of anticipated N-S aligned clusters. DLS in excess of 30 m/s and rather steep mid-layer lapse rates add an isolated large hail risk including severe wind gusts. We can't rule out an isolated tornado event along the coast, as MLCAPE plume and increasing ageostrophic coastal flow overlap. Heavy to excessive rain will be the main hazard however!

    During the evening and overnight hours, this cluster also affects NW and W-C Italy with similar risks.


    ... Bay of Biscay, Ireland and UK ...

    06 - 12 Z Bay of Biscay and W-France:

    Cold mid-layers atop warm SSTs support modest SBCAPE and active marine convection is forecast. Sleet and gusty winds accompany strongest storms, which affect the W-coast of France until noon. Beyond noon, mid-layer warming ahead of the major depression to the west should induce a weakening of any ongoing convection.

    18 - 06 Z the complete area :

    Another pronounced occlusion crosses the area with postfrontal convection approaching the Bay of Biscay and UK from the west. Forecast soundings show a deepening of the mixed marine layer and with 850 hPa winds aoa 30 m/s, severe wind gusts will be a risk with any shower/isolated thunderstorm. Once again no risk for a forced line of convection exists, but any deeper updraft and attendant downdraft could bring severe winds down to the surface.

    Only a small level 1 was issued for SW-UK, where overlap of modest SBCAPE and intense shear points to the highest convectively induced wind gust risk unitl 06Z. In addition, with increasing SRH-1, an isolated tornado event seems possible.

    Between 03 and 06Z, strongest winds along the back-bent occlusion should start to affect SW-UK, but this risk won't be covered by our rules of action.

     

    http://estofex.org/

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    Some nasty charts popping up for next week, looks like we'll be in the firing range with a possible very nasty storm or two, possible worse than anything we've seen yet.

     

    First batch of winds from the next storm arrive this evening then the worst hitting around tomorrow evening, Met Office mentioning storm force winds across coasts. This storm looks worse than the last one

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

     

    Storm is currently around 947mb and expected to deepen to around 943mb on the FAX charts, very nasty. Another 2inches or more rain in places too

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Some nasty charts popping up for next week, looks like we'll be in the firing range with a possible very nasty storm or two, possible worse than anything we've seen yet.

     

    First batch of winds from the next storm arrive this evening then the worst hitting around tomorrow evening, Met Office mentioning storm force winds across coasts. This storm looks worse than the last one

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

     

    Storm is currently around 947mb and expected to deepen to around 943mb on the FAX charts, very nasty. Another 2inches or more rain in places too

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    How much rain did you manage yesterday bobby? Were you under that intense rainfall in the evening?
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    Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

    Greetings "RUTH" we will meet more intimately tomorrow Posted Image

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    How much rain did you manage yesterday bobby? Were you under that intense rainfall in the evening?

     

    Escaped the worst of it, still a good 26mm, looks like huge amounts fell to the west over Camarthen area - what did you record?

     

    Next soaking incoming! Cirrus from the approaching storm now in the skies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Saturdays storm currently gaining strength in the Atlantic at the moment,

     

    post-6686-0-44054100-1391780421_thumb.pn

     

    Not much to add from my post last night for a more in depth look at it see here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/?p=2919701

     

    The Met Office have a wind and rain warnings out,

     

    post-6686-0-68283100-1391780591_thumb.pn

     

    Their warning maps aren't exactly clear sometimes so this is what they say,

     

    Rain Warning For = Northern Ireland, Wales, West and East Midlands, South West England, London and South East England.

     

    Another band of rain, heavy at times, accompanied by coastal gales will affect southwest England and Wales during Friday evening, moving quickly east across the UK early on Saturday. This rain will clear the east coast on Saturday morning but will be followed by frequent heavy and squally showers. 

     
    The public should be aware that further disruption due to flooding is likely.
     
    Wind Warning For = Wales, South West England, London and South East England,
     

    Southerly gales will affect south facing coasts of southwest England and south and west Wales during Friday evening, moving east along English Channel coasts overnight into Saturday. 

     
    After a short lull, winds will increase from the southwest during the course of Saturday with severe gales affecting coastal districts, bringing gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated 80 mph at the most exposed locations within the Amber warning area. Large waves are also expected to affect southwest facing coasts. Further inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely.
     
    The public should be prepared for disruption to transport and locally to power supplies, particularly when combined with the impacts of heavy rainfall.

     

    Link for the warnings page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391731200&regionName=sw

     

    As for the next storm on Wednesday there is still disagreements between the models,

     

    GFS - Develops a weak low heading over NW Scotland givng severe gales.

    post-6686-0-24350400-1391781110_thumb.pn

     

    ECM - Sends a deep low across the English channel.

    post-6686-0-95820600-1391781170_thumb.pn

     

    UKMO - Sticks to what its been saying for over a day now it sends a low over Ireland, England and Wales bringing severe gales,

    post-6686-0-58368800-1391781245_thumb.pn

     

    JMA- Still doesn't develop anything.

    GEM - Sends a low to the NW of Scotland like the GFS.

    NAVGEM - Similar path to the ECM but no where near as strong.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Escaped the worst of it, still a good 26mm, looks like huge amounts fell to the west over Camarthen area - what did you record? Next soaking incoming! Cirrus from the approaching storm now in the skies.

    32mm up to midnight, another 3mm just after midnight. I went out in Bournemouth last night, the flooding on the roads was insane!
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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    Will East Anglia/Suffolk area be affected by tonight's storm at all, guys. I know there is no weather warning for us but I just wondered if we may get heavy rain if not wind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Posted Image

     

    Imagine that hitting, goodbye and goodnight! Some nasty storms in the ensembles for next week.

     

    Posted Image

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Posted Image  Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    Imagine these hitting, goodbye and goodnight! Some nasty storms in the ensembles for next week.

    1987 repeated all over again, if not, worse...

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    Posted Image  Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    Imagine these hitting, goodbye and goodnight! Some nasty storms in the ensembles for next week.

     

     

    careful bobby someone on here will tell you off for that comment Badger 001

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    David Cameron is in Somerset to assess the flood damage, Downing Street says

     

    Satellite image showing the storm brewing off the Atlantic

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

    A change of wind direction to the south takes us out of the firing line once again.

    not too sure pit, xc maps suggest southerly for the most part. Think comes sat eve we will score this time :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    There is now a Yellow warning for rain for next 3 days.

     

    Issued at: 

    1514 on Fri 7 Feb 2014
     
    Valid from: 
    1900 on Fri 7 Feb 2014
     
    Valid to: 
    0600 on Sun 9 Feb 2014
     
    Following the very wet weather that affected many southern areas on Thursday night, another band of rain, heavy at times, accompanied by coastal gales will affect south west England and Wales during Friday evening, moving quickly east across the UK early on Saturday. This rain will clear the east coast on Saturday morning but will be followed by frequent heavy and squally showers and some bands of more persistent rain too.
     
    The public should be aware that further disruption due to flooding is likely.
     
    This is an update to the warning to extend the risk period into early Sunday.
     
    An area of low pressure and its associated fronts gave some 15-30 mm of rain across many southern areas during Thursday and Thursday night.  This has led to further flooding in places.
     
    A further Atlantic frontal system will bring a band of rain quickly eastwards during Friday night and early Saturday, with the heaviest rain again likely to be across parts of southern England and south Wales. This will be followed in turn by heavy showers and some bands of more persistent rain rotating around the major depression centre as it crosses northern areas. Winds will also be a feature with severe gales possible around coasts in the south and southwest of England and parts of Wales.
     
    Regions under the warning.
    Bath,North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Isles of Scilly, North Somerset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire
    Edited by Skulltheruler
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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    Posted Image  Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    Imagine these hitting, goodbye and goodnight! Some nasty storms in the ensembles for next week.

    I have to admit, these look pretty scary!Posted Image

     

    I like very windy weather, but something like this would probably be enough to cause widespread structural damages on houses and buildings.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Posted Image  Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    Imagine these hitting, goodbye and goodnight! Some nasty storms in the ensembles for next week.

    Near-record low pressures right there.Looks like to be near or even match the 1987 storm

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    One last comment on the expected wave heights off cornwall tomorrow - At Sennen Cove....

     

    Posted ImageSennen.png

     

     

    Still big !

     

    Fortunately, there is a Neap Tide this weekend, with high tides at their lowest heights this Sunday, so this may help alleviate a little the effects of the large swells/waves during the high tides ... but I imagine with the expected storm surge tomorrow - there will still be coastal flooding - but not quite as bad as if there was a Spring Tide this weekend.

    Edited by Nick F
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