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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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ECM has the potential storm on Monday down to 939mb, just north of Ireland. Seems to be significantly deeper on this one, which is probably why it's further north.

 

As if the ones we've had up until now weren't bad enough..

 

Posted Image

well thats going to blow more than just wheelie bins about , quite scary !!!...
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    ECM has the potential storm on Monday down to 939mb, just north of Ireland. Seems to be significantly deeper on this one, which is probably why it's further north.

     

    As if the ones we've had up until now weren't bad enough..

     

    Posted Image

    You don't get much deeper than that with the isobars so closely packed, could be overdoing it a tad but thats normally what the GFS is famous for!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    Are we looking at more coastal flooding with that storm?

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Anyone seen that rain over Wales!!! Out of nowhere they're seeing 100+mm/hr of rain :O

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Hell of a blow job.

     

     

    I am sick of wearing wellies.

    I am sick of muddy or flooded towpaths.

    I am sick of moving boats sideways (called crabbing by us in the know) against ridiculous winds.

    I really would like some ice on the canals and some crunchy crusty topping to the ground I walk on.

    I really would like to get my thermals on and not wear waterproofs for weeks on end.

     

    I moved a boat over Christmas/New Year and had one sunny crispy day.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Today had to get the chainsaw out to continue, and yes, guess what, it started to rain again

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

    Who do I see to get a refund on this crap Winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Yes, some serious rainfall developing over parts of Wales - Really bright colours on the radar, downpour! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    Yes, some serious rainfall developing over parts of Wales - Really bright colours on the radar, downpour! 

     

    That's got Flash Flood written all over it !

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    well  monday storm more of a worry  for  the  south coast this  one  going up the  english channel

    post-4629-0-94786300-1391716923_thumb.pn

    post-4629-0-14441700-1391716932_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Are we looking at more coastal flooding with that storm?

    Well the high tides have past , but have a look at this chart,

    post-6830-0-59509800-1391717144_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    Anyone seen that rain over Wales!!! Out of nowhere they're seeing 100+mm/hr of rain Posted Image

     

    I saw a line of very heavy rain on RainRadar, pure white passing over Carmarthen - it suggested at least 50+mm an hour - but i guess that it ran out of colours Posted Image

     

    Still there http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Anyone seen that rain over Wales!!! Out of nowhere they're seeing 100+mm/hr of rain :O

    Perfect timing with the front, strong PVA/vortmax has been progged all day, really ramps rain intensity up!post-15177-0-75399600-1391717545_thumb.p
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Hell of a blow job.

     

     

    I am sick of wearing wellies.

    I am sick of muddy or flooded towpaths.

    I am sick of moving boats sideways (called crabbing by us in the know) against ridiculous winds.

    I really would like some ice on the canals and some crunchy crusty topping to the ground I walk on.

    I really would like to get my thermals on and not wear waterproofs for weeks on end.

     

    I moved a boat over Christmas/New Year and had one sunny crispy day.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Today had to get the chainsaw out to continue, and yes, guess what, it started to rain again

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

    Who do I see to get a refund on this crap Winter.

     

     

    I certainly don't envy you in this weather M, done many many weeks or 2 weeks on most canals at varying times of the year, usually spring or autumn half terms but yuk glad I decided against living on a canal 20 years ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    I saw a line of very heavy rain on RainRadar, pure white passing over Carmarthen - it suggested at least 50+mm an hour - but i guess that it ran out of colours Posted Image

     

    Still there http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    rain alarm  saying  camarthen  getting bright  purple  bound  to be problems there at  the moment

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Latest on the late Friday and Saturday storm,

     

    Friday 6pm to Saturday 6am 55 to 65mph gusts mainly around the coasts of Ireland, Wales, Southern and South Eastern England. Inland parts could see 45 to 55mph gusts.

     

    Friday 9pm

     

    post-6686-0-84942500-1391716788_thumb.pn

     

    Saturday 3am

     

    post-6686-0-63393700-1391716820_thumb.pn

     

    Saturday 6am to 12pm is the time period where the strongest winds are expected to arrive the second round of this storm. It will move in from the West during early Saturday bringing 60 to 70mph gusts along the coasts of Ireland, Wales and the SW of England,

     

    post-6686-0-53893800-1391717056_thumb.pn

     

    Saturday 12pm to Sunday 6am Southern Ireland and all of England and Wales see inland gusts of around 40 to 55mph meanwhile the coasts 60 to 70mph is possible. After 6am on Sunday the winds will ease off as the day goes on.

     

    post-6686-0-88040200-1391717218_thumb.pn

     

    The rainfall totals over the next 3 days does look bad for Wales, Western parts of Ireland, along the South coast of England and some places in Northern England.

     

    post-6686-0-32926500-1391717350_thumb.pn

     

    The next storm may arrive on Tuesday the ECM has been going on about it for a day now so lets take a look at the situation,

     

    GFS: Doesn't form a storm anything like the ECM in fact it doesn't go for a low pressure system at all.

    UKMO: Sends in a 960mb low across Southern Ireland and looks similar to yesterdays ECM run.

    post-6686-0-98577700-1391717528_thumb.gi

    JMA: Not interested.

    GEM: Forms something like the UKMO but weaker.

    NAVGEM: Similar path to the UKMO but about 10mb lower and sends it straight across England

    post-6686-0-93584000-1391717642_thumb.gi

    CMA: Also sends a deep low over England.

    post-6686-0-86903000-1391717679_thumb.pn

    ECM: Only one to send it that far North and is the deepest out of the bunch tonight giving Ireland storm force winds.

    post-6686-0-45324000-1391717788_thumb.pn

     

    Lots of disagreements between them tonight just have to wait and watch now.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    the  south  coast  should  look out very heavy rain heading  over  iow  heading towards  Portsmouth  area  they  soon

    Edited by tinybill
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    If CMA comes off, that will surely bring scenes similar to 1987, that would seriously rival it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    rain alarm  saying  camarthen  getting bright  purple  bound  to be problems there at  the moment

     

    Although to be fair they are Welsh, probably just a light shower ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    ECM ensembles are out the control run completely downgrades the low hitting Ireland,

     

    post-6686-0-70980400-1391718236_thumb.pn

     

    Out of the 50 members 10 show something similar to the ECM run with a storm to the NW. 11 members show a storm hitting England and Wales although much weaker. The remaining 29 members don't go for anything note worthy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts (Home) Witney, Oxon (work)
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts (Home) Witney, Oxon (work)

    looks like another serious amount of precip about to hit Carmarthen

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM has the potential storm on Monday down to 939mb, just north of Ireland. Seems to be significantly deeper on this one, which is probably why it's further north.

     

    As if the ones we've had up until now weren't bad enough..

     

    Posted Image

     

    Looks like the ECM op run is over doing that low significantly thankfully

     

    ECM ensemble

     

    Posted Image

     

    Op

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    looks like another serious amount of precip about to hit Carmarthen

    Yes. And everyone seems to have stopped posting in the Wales thread!

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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Weather Preferences: Windstorm, Thunderstorm, Heavy Squally, Blustery Winds
  • Location: East London

    Anyone seen that rain over Wales!!! Out of nowhere they're seeing 100+mm/hr of rain :O

    Yes of courses there will be lot of amounts up to 100+mm/hr of rainfall out there but just check them out with the meteociel accumulation precipitation. Edited by Storm Track
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Looks like the ECM op run is over doing that low significantly thankfully

     

    ECM ensemble

     

    Posted Image

     

    Op

     

    Posted Image

     

    Seems like it may have been overdone, but with the UKMO going for a fairly potent storm, and the GFS starting to catch on, I still think it might be a problem.

     

    If it's weaker, it may also track further south, which isn't good news for the already battered south west.

    Edited by Sainsbo
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