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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    I think there will be a fair bit more sea wall dissappear along there in the coming week.

     

    Its always been thought of as a rubbish place to put a railway line, but its rather hilly around there so difficult to find an alternative.

    Very pretty train ride along there though.

     

    Yep -  stupid place to build a trainline. I don't know what people expect when you build houses 5 yards from the sea. The collapse of that Sea Wall isn't really that surprising either, given the amount of bashing it's had over the decades.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    Yep -  stupid place to build a trainline. I don't know what people expect when you build houses 5 yards from the sea. The collapse of that Sea Wall isn't really that surprising either, given the amount of bashing it's had over the decades.

     

     

    Not really this was Victorian Britain where their actually would build defences to defend it, Plus was a Brunel masterpiece taking in the scenery of the coast

     

    The only stupidity is the governments by taking money away from flood/sea defences

    Edited by lfcdude
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    Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

    Not really this was Victorian Britain where their actually would build defences to defend it, Plus was a Brunel masterpiece taking in the scenery of the coast

     

    I understand it's all about Scenery, but building a train track on the edge of a country, known for it's wetness... Hmmmm

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Just spoke to my Mum and Dad who live in Dawlish, fortunately up near the top of a hill. House still has its roof. She's never seen so many camera crews, even some foreign ones. Police preventing access to the seafront.Being a chartered civil engineer for the last 23 years and looking at that failed structure, there isnt a lot to it when waves come over the top. Hydrostatic loading on the back , no tensile strength, granular backfill and over she goes !!

    The really interesting thing I noticed and have noticed in past storms is the hydraulic fracturing, when the waves keep hitting the walls they start moving ever so slightly the older they are it seems, the pressure release of material, by ocean pounding, it is as though the concrete goes porous with age too, for instance, tarmac layers blew off from within today, so it looked to me, the wall I was looking at was set in 1951, it must have started its moving death walk, for its joints are now ever so slightly displaced to the naked eye.I have never seen them come back from such. Various ages and states of abandoned sea walls exist on the Isle of Wight for my reference. I have been looking at them since 1990 LOL

    Basically I noticed the sea pressure fractures the land, as it eats it. The hydraulic fracturing weakens the resistance of the land.

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    Yes of course, but it is so important to preserve the appearance of Dawlish and Brunel's Broad gauge railway seawall, the first mainline next to the sea, ever, I do hope they face it with good stone (later on when fuss is no more). Its mainly for the Grockles, without those Dawlish will wither.....Looking at the pictures of the damage on the news, I am pleased that the tide actually went out away from the wall, the waves around Freshwater bay (my place) stayed in till dusk all the way to the wall.If the authority's dared they could be working on that wall now, just like we all know the British Royal Engineers, would be all over it like ants, ever resourceful.....

    yes a lovely place to visit , when my kids were little the yougest was fascinated by the trains being so close to the little path along the coast ,so we had to walk it every day so he could see the them !!.... grockles =tourist ,like it !.... Edited by Mokidugway
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    As hilighted already, the potential storm on Monday is looking very severe at the moment. I don't think I have ever seen the isobars as tight as the ECM are showing them, would be absolutely devastating if it is to come to fruition, especially where the ground is so saturated down hee in the south west, even though trees aren't in full leaf, I expect it wouldn't take much to uproot shallow rooted trees in waterlogged fields, not to

    mention how damaging the storm surge could be if it coincides with high tide, with sea defences already damaged.

     

    Luckily, it's still quite a while away, and currently it's the only one of the main models to show anything this serious.

     

    Posted Image

     

    As for the storm Saturday: The GFS Hi-Res has the storm bottoming out at 944mb, and still sub 950mb as it tracks across the UK, so a lot of unneeded rain and strong winds yet again.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    yes a lovely place to visit , when my kids were little the yougest was fascinated by the trains being so close to the little path along the coast ,so we had to walk it every day so he could see the them !!.... grockles =tourist ,like it !....

    I fully admit to Grockling my self of course, recently for instance I, would you believe, as a grockle, walked along Dawlish sea wall just last year LOL

    944mb for Saturdays LOW eh? That is a lot, the wind will surly be 100mph, the sea will be beyond furious. All the lowest bits of the beaches with their black stinking sands scoured and thrown in the heaving broth of a sea.....Like today.

    Take care all.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Oh my god if that comes could be utterly disastrous for the whole country and I mean this sincerely any deeper and goodbye

    that  not  looking  very  good

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    As hilighted already, the potential storm on Monday is looking very severe at the moment. I don't think I have ever seen the isobars as tight as the ECM are showing them, would be absolutely devastating if it is to come to fruition, especially where the ground is so saturated down hee in the south west, even though trees aren't in full leaf, I expect it wouldn't take much to uproot shallow rooted trees in waterlogged fields, not to

    mention how damaging the storm surge could be if it coincides with high tide, with sea defences already damaged.

     

    Luckily, it's still quite a while away, and currently it's the only one of the main models to show anything this serious.

     

    Posted Image

     

    As for the storm Saturday: The GFS Hi-Res has the storm bottoming out at 944mb, and still sub 950mb as it tracks across the UK, so a lot of unneeded rain and strong winds yet again.

     

    Posted Image

    Do you think that Saturdays storm will drop much rain, or will it move through quickly?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    The really interesting thing I noticed and have noticed in past storms is the hydraulic fracturing, when the waves keep hitting the walls they start moving ever so slightly the older they are it seems, the pressure release of material, by ocean pounding, it is as though the concrete goes porous with age too, for instance, tarmac layers blew off from within today, so it looked to me, the wall I was looking at was set in 1951, it must have started its moving death walk, for its joints are now ever so slightly displaced to the naked eye.I have never seen them come back from such. Various ages and states of abandoned sea walls exist on the Isle of Wight for my reference. I have been looking at them since 1990 LOL

    Basically I noticed the sea pressure fractures the land, as it eats it. The hydraulic fracturing weakens the resistance of the land.

     

    Yes, all unreinforced masonry, segmental or granular will move 'inelastically' ie. move a bit and then be permanently displaced. Then they get displaced a bit more and then accelerate towards their doom ! Elastic structures move back to their original position, so retain their form, within limits of course. The wall's been there a long time, but met its match today. It'll be rebuilt of course but I stand by my comment that more of it will go before they get to fix it - judging by what the weather experts on here say. There may be some alleviation if there is a Westerly or northerly wind component, - off the land. Sorry for the houseowners, horrific mess.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    Not really this was Victorian Britain where their actually would build defences to defend it, Plus was a Brunel masterpiece taking in the scenery of the coast

     

    The only stupidity is the governments by taking money away from flood/sea defences

     Plenty of people would like to strangle Beeching right now. Used to be more resilience to the network. Probably seemed like a good idea at the time........

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Do you think that Saturdays storm will drop much rain, or will it move through quickly?

     

    Met Office going for 20-40mm fairly widely, and with the current state of the ground that's more than enough to cause problems.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    Met Office going for 20-40mm fairly widely, and with the current state of the ground that's more than enough to cause problems.

    True. Anything like 40mm would be a disaster for the SW especially.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    The winds later on around 3am tonight should start to ease off. But it won't be long before the wind picks up again along Southern England on Thursday late afternoon another low will move and pass over England,

     

    post-6686-0-30210800-1391632172_thumb.pn

     

    This low looks to bring 40 to 55mph gusts along the Southern and South Eastern coasts of England,

     

    Late afternoon and early evening for Southern Coasts,

     

    post-6686-0-71947500-1391632241_thumb.pn

     

    Late evening into the early hours of Friday morning for the South Eastern coasts,

     

    post-6686-0-49241000-1391632278_thumb.pn

     

    And just as this low leaves Saturdays storm starts to move in at Friday 6pm. At first between Friday 6pm to Saturday 6am for Ireland, Wales, Southern and South Eastern England gusts between 40 to 65mph are possible and slightly higher for exposed parts along the coasts,

     

    post-6686-0-74978300-1391632492_thumb.pn

     

    From 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday Southern Ireland, Wales and all of England apart from the far North can expect 60 to 75mph gusts along the coasts and gusts around 40 to 55mph could reach inland parts,

     

    post-6686-0-28989000-1391632677_thumb.pn

     

    After 6am on Sunday the storm moves away and it stays windy for a while but the strong winds will be gone.

     

    Here's the next 72 hours of rainfall totals Southern Wales look to see the most with Northern England, parts of Ireland and the SW and S coasts of England,

     

    post-6686-0-50802400-1391632852_thumb.pn

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
    Oh my god if that comes could be utterly disastrous for the whole country and I mean this sincerely any deeper and goodbye
    [quote name="Jimmyh" post="2918752" timestamp="1391628109

    Well, that looks awful... Is there a chance, however remote that it could downgrade in the next day or so. I sincerely hope so for the sake of us all

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Saturday storm is looking horrible

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1#

     

    looking deep in to fantasy world its  not looking any better

    post-4629-0-52700800-1391633137_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    Oh my god if that comes could be utterly disastrous for the whole country and I mean this sincerely any deeper and goodbye

    a slight overreaction don't you think? Yes it could be really windy etc but you sincerely think the country will be no more ! Hilarious and melodramatic
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Well, that looks awful... Is there a chance, however remote that it could downgrade in the next day or so. I sincerely hope so for the sake of us all

     

    The ECM is the only one to show it and at 144 hours it could disappear on the next run. The ECM didn't have it from it's previous 00z run so it could be wrong. None of the other models show it either so at the moment it goes with little support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

    The ECM is the only one to show it and at 144 hours it could disappear on the next run. The ECM didn't have it from it's previous 00z run so it could be wrong. None of the other models show it either so at the moment it goes with little support.

    The storm for Mon/Tue has been mentioned on the BBC Weather (long range) forecast, they're saying it's one to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Yes, all unreinforced masonry, segmental or granular will move 'inelastically' ie. move a bit and then be permanently displaced. Then they get displaced a bit more and then accelerate towards their doom ! Elastic structures move back to their original position, so retain their form, within limits of course. The wall's been there a long time, but met its match today. It'll be rebuilt of course but I stand by my comment that more of it will go before they get to fix it - judging by what the weather experts on here say. There may be some alleviation if there is a Westerly or northerly wind component, - off the land. Sorry for the houseowners, horrific mess.

    Yes and the Neap tides will help, but the liquefaction- at the pace of a Snail, begin. Large weights will yield inexorably. The pounding motion has set a hydrological pressure wave, within solid rock at varying degrees according to porosity and solidity, with or without local pounding vibration, of course not all solids respond, but most sediment responds to the tide in the end with a little help.....

    Saturday should command great respect, Insurance underwriters will watch with, a clear and lucid vision, not seen since Napoleon I think. Or I am a Dutchman* LOL

    Regards.

    * No offence to the Dutch.

    I share your worry and love for people like us caught in the maelstrom.

    Edited by Rustynailer
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    NAVGEM also shows it, only the timing doesn't correlate with the ECM, and it arrives a day later.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    a slight overreaction don't you think? Yes it could be really windy etc but you sincerely think the country will be no more ! Hilarious and melodramatic

    Welcome to netweather badger the post was not melodramatic. If that low pressure came off and it still if as is basically if then there would be widespread damage. Wind speeds would be faster than anything seen do far this winter. I hope it doesn't come off as potential for damage us immense.
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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Weather Preferences: Windstorm, Thunderstorm, Heavy Squally, Blustery Winds
  • Location: East London

    Oh my god if that comes could be utterly disastrous for the whole country and I mean this sincerely any deeper and goodbye

    She could be a develop to give her cats up with catnado but tornado picked up feral cats in the UK as we should be aware of this. Edited by Storm Track
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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow

    She could be a develop to give her cats up with catnado but tornado picked up feral cats in the UK as we should be aware of this.

    lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    ECM at +144, crikey!

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Now that really is nasty, getting into 1987 territory.

    None of the weather sites are picking this feature up that I can tell, although things may change?

    Generally my experience is that there would be hints on these weather sites but I can't see anything on the ones I've searched...

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