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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Saturdays storm look like it will last 24 hours going by the GFS eek!  And looks like it may be stronger than tonights/wednesday storm....the southwest looks like in the direct path too.

     

    I'm going to be a serious curtain twitcher tonight and Saturday lol

     

    I love this kind of weather! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    Saturdays storm look like it will last 24 hours going by the GFS eek!  And looks like it may be stronger than tonights/wednesday storm....the southwest looks like in the direct path too.

     

    I'm going to be a serious curtain twitcher tonight and Saturday lol

     

    I love this kind of weather! 

    Twister Girl dont let your neighours see your curtains twitching. You might get classed as a nosey neighbour lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    Saturdays storm look like it will last 24 hours going by the GFS eek!  And looks like it may be stronger than tonights/wednesday storm....the southwest looks like in the direct path too. I'm going to be a serious curtain twitcher tonight and Saturday lol I love this kind of weather!

    Oooh! Me as well, TG but there are no warnings for us in East Anglia.
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Twister Girl dont let your neighours see your curtains twitching. You might get classed as a nosey neighbour lol

     Luckily there are no neighbours opposite :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Storm at around 946 mb (as of 12pm) with hurricane force winds on the southern flank

     

    Posted Image

    Gales to set in across the SW in the next few hours, this at 6pm

     

    Posted Image

     

    This is all well a fine.. But to me.. It looks slightly more east??

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Here is the NMM prediction at 12pm, about the same position just a bit deeper than forecast

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    That looks better under hi res still though Posted Image  This morning I thought it looked slightly more deeper than forecast.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Weather Preferences: Windstorm, Thunderstorm, Heavy Squally, Blustery Winds
  • Location: East London

    Storm at around 946 mb (as of 12pm) with hurricane force winds on the southern flank

     

    Posted Image

    Gales to set in across the SW in the next few hours, this at 6pm

     

    Posted Image

    She is going to be stronger than this tonight and tomorrow for this weekend with hurricane force winds up to 80-90mph winds or higher gusts. The heaviest rainfall will also be accompanied by the very heavy squally showers with an another larger storm system for this weekend that could be a lot of amounts up to 50-250mm with even possible.
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A good few warnings for here, the thunderstorm warnings are not a bad shout either..

    post-15177-0-02771000-1391529521_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #008ISSUED: 1530UTC TUESDAY 4TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

    STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, SOUTH WALES

     

    IN EFFECT UNTIL 1800UTC WEDNESDAY 5TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER, GENERATING SEVERE GALES, STORM SURGE AND LARGE WAVES

     

    DISCUSSION:

     

    THIS WARNING IS INTENDED TO COMPLEMENT WATCH #007, WITH AN UPGRADE FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO SUB-950 AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHER EIRE. THE INITIAL OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY BY NWP SUITES. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, STRONG GUSTS POTENTIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL AFFECT THE WARNING AREAS, MOST LIKELY ON THE FAR TIP OF BOTH PENINSULAS AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT. COASTAL AREAS AND HIGH GROUND MAY SEE MEAN WINDS OF ABOVE 50MPH, POSSIBLY TOUCHING ON 60MPH, WITH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS TO ABOVE 80MPH. MOST AREAS OF THE WARNING REGIONS MAY SEE GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH.

     

    THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, POST-FRONTAL WINDS SOUTH OF THE WRAPPING OCCLUSION WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE ABOVE 50MPH MEAN WIND SPEEDS FOR A TIME, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH ON EXPOSED COASTS. STRONG GUSTS ABOVE 60MPH MAY BE EXPERIENCED FURTHER INLAND OWING TO OROGRAPHY, DRY INSTABILITY AT LOW LEVELS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ROLL-TYPE CONVECTION. AREAS ALONG THE CHANNEL MAY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE INTO THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN COAST OF FRANCE MAY BE AFFECTED MORE. ATTENTION MUST BE GIVEN TO MODELLED WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 30FT INTO THE WESTERN CHANNEL, WHICH MAY GIVEN LONG SWELL PERIODS MAY CAUSE OVER-TOPPING OF DEFENCES AND COASTAL FLOODING WHEN COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER TIDES, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION, A STORM SURGE DRIVEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ADD UP TO 1 METRE TO TIDAL HEIGHTS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ALSO ABOUT THE OCCURRENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERN BORE LATE MORNING. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. DIRECT COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT ADVISED.

     

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

     

    **** alerts contd ****

     

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #007ISSUED: 1200UTC TUESDAY 4TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

    STRONG POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN, SOUTHEAST & EASTERN ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, IOM & CHANNEL ISLANDS

    HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND

     

    IN EFFECT FROM 1400UTC TUESDAY 4TH UNTIL 0100UTC THURSDAY 6TH FEBRUARY 2014

    DEEP LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER, GENERATING HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE GALES AND LARGE WAVES

     

    DISCUSSION:

     

    THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUB-950MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER AND BEGINS TO INFILL, BROADEN AND SLOW AS IT TRANSITS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AFFECTING ALL WATCH AREAS WITH MEAN WINDSPEEDS POSSIBLY ABOVE 40MPH WITH GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 70MPH, MOSTLY AROUND COASTAL AREAS AND HIGH GROUND BUT POSSIBLY ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE REAR OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOVE 20MM IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME ARE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS LEADING TO RAPID RUN-OFF AND EXCESS SURFACE WATER. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH GROUND AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES, GIVEN STRONG WIND ENHANCEMENT.

     

    THEREAFTER, FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARDS, SOUTHWEST AND MOST OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAPPING OCCLUSION, WITH MEAN SPEEDS OF POSSIBLY ABOVE 50MPH AND GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 80MPH OWING TO DRY INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF A STING-JET FEATURE. FROM MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, THESE WINDS LESSEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING WALES, SOUTHEAST AND ENGLAND THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FURTHER 30MM RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCCESSIVE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WALES MOSTLY, PERHAPS ALSO NORTHWEST ENGLAND. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. DIRECT COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT ADVISED.

     

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

     

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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    She is going to be stronger than this tonight and tomorrow for this weekend with hurricane force winds up to 80-90mph winds or higher gusts. The heaviest rainfall will also be accompanied by the very heavy squally showers with an another larger storm system for this weekend that could be a lot of amounts up to 50-250mm with even possible.

    10 inches of rain !! That would lead to catastrophic life threatening flash floods , I dearly hope the rainfall is much less !!....
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Hi Mapantz what app is that? Cheers.

    Yup, Weatherpro. I've tested so many apps but found that one to be the most accurate for my area, not everybody will agree of course, it will always come down to personal preference. :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Is this storm shaping up to be a bit more potent than first thought? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    This seems a very worrying situation down here both witht he wind and the rain, the rivers wont cope neither will saturated ground.

     

    The channel Islands aswell is a worry also I reckon

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Is this storm shaping up to be a bit more potent than first thought? 

    Not sure, but massive fall of pressure now taking place to the Southwest of the British Isles. I think the centre is around 948mb at 4pm. Wind is going to be a big problem later this evening along the South coast.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Not sure, but massive fall of pressure now taking place to the Southwest of the British Isles. I think the centre is around 948mb at 4pm. Wind is going to be a big problem later this evening along the South coast.

     C

    I know it's exposed. Isles of Scilly - a recent gust 78mph

    Seems like 80mph gusts will be topped, my gut feeling

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Not sure, but massive fall of pressure now taking place to the Southwest of the British Isles. I think the centre is around 948mb at 4pm. Wind is going to be a big problem later this evening along the South coast.

     C

     

    I would agree and inland will still see some massive gusts!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Saturdays storm looks to have downgraded a bit if you look at runs from yesterday and the days before its slowly been moved south over time meaning the strongest winds will be out at sea. Still however the English Channel and the coasts beside it look to get hit by 60 to 70mph gusts perhaps slightly more but the worse doesn't look to venture inland.

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Saturdays storm looks to have downgraded a bit if you look at runs from yesterday and the days before its slowly been moved south over time meaning the strongest winds will be out at sea. Still however the English Channel and the coasts beside it look to get hit by 60 to 70mph gusts perhaps slightly more but the worse doesn't look to venture inland.

    Sometimes, the time intervals between charts is not helpful, and things fall in between. This may be the case here. Just looked at Saturday with the TWO chart viewr which goes in smaller steps, and it looks horrendous for the SE

    Edited by warrenb
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