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Coast

Atlantic Storms February 2014

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Costal defences are naff in this country , a few 2 or 3 ton boulders , nead to use acropods or 50 ton concrete blocks like they do in canary islands !!....

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Costal defences are naff in this country , a few 2 or 3 ton boulders , nead to use acropods or 50 ton concrete blocks like they do in canary islands !!....

To protect the the whole coast would cost a very large amount of money. If you protect one area you just create faster erosion in another place.

Anyway back on subject looking interesting for Saturday may actually provided a stormy day. The GFS has the strong winds a lot more widespread than the warnings.

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To protect the the whole coast would cost a very large amount of money. If you protect one area you just create faster erosion in another place.Anyway back on subject looking interesting for Saturday may actually provided a stormy day. The GFS has the strong winds a lot more widespread than the warnings.

my point was that highly vulnerable areas are inadequately protected , I well understand coastal erosion , longshore drift etc as some of my work includes coastal defenses !....

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Bad planning from the year dot ...... We've stolen our natural sea defences and built promenades over them. Bulldoze the lot I say LOL.

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Bad planning from the year dot ...... We've stolen our natural sea defences and built promenades over them. Bulldoze the lot I say LOL.

I agree a good pebble beach is better than any concrete , stone or sheet piling ..
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Here's my view on the stormy weather over the next few days.

 

Currently Saturdays storm is in development in the Atlantic the image below shows where it currently is and over the next few hours it is going to exit the jet steam and bomb out,

 

post-6686-0-41652500-1391110398_thumb.pn

 

So here it is at 12pm Friday in the Atlantic with mean speeds between 60 to 70mph,

 

post-6686-0-41683400-1391110499_thumb.pn

 

During Friday afternoon and the evening a strong wind from the South East will affect most parts with 45 to 55mph gusts likely,

 

post-6686-0-64876700-1391110556_thumb.pn

 

Friday will also be a very wet day across all of the UK,

 

post-6686-0-58353300-1391110939_thumb.pn

 

The storm by Friday evening has created a very large swell out in the Atlantic as well at over 50ft,

 

post-6686-0-12498200-1391110727_thumb.pn

 

Onto Saturday the wind will start to pick up at 6am across Ireland and as the day progresses the wind speed will increase over Wales and England as well. Ireland can expect 60 to 70mph gusts meanwhile England and Wales 45 to 55mph.

 

post-6686-0-84250000-1391111014_thumb.pn

 

post-6686-0-79969000-1391111038_thumb.pn

 

Saturday morning the 50ft swell hits Western Ireland,

 

post-6686-0-16981900-1391111132_thumb.pn

 

By the afternoon and evening it slowly goes down to the West of Ireland but a 24 to 28ft swell reaches the SW of England,

 

post-6686-0-24851300-1391111263_thumb.pn

 

Here's a chart that shows the next 72 hour rain totals. So Western Ireland. Wales, SW England, N England, E Scotland look to see the most rainfall over the next 3 days,

 

post-6686-0-31373000-1391111374_thumb.pn

 

Overall Friday to Saturday night looks wet and windy. The wind is nothing out of the ordinary we have seen these wind speeds already many times this winter but add in the high tides, the large swell heights and heavy rainfall then it is an event that needs to be watched closely.

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well looking  at the  models  to-night  feb  could  be the wets for a  long  time  lots of  rain heading our way  not what the  flooded  parts want   nor  the  farmers

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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A look at the GFS 12z wind gust charts for Friday/Saturdays storm.

 

Gusts in excess of 60mph sweeping into western parts during tomorrow morning.

post-9615-0-12598500-1391112592_thumb.pn

 

Strongest winds transferring to the NE into Friday evening with the Northern Isles taking a battering.

post-9615-0-89588600-1391112620_thumb.pn

 

The main circulation of the depression makes landfall over Western Ireland during Saturday morning with gusts around 80mph maybe higher on the extreme coast.

post-9615-0-16212600-1391112897_thumb.pn

 

Into Saturday afternoon the severe gales cross the Irish Sea into the mainland with gusts 60-70mph maybe more, mean speeds in excess of 50mph.

post-9615-0-06876900-1391112634_thumb.pn Gusts post-9615-0-76172800-1391113169_thumb.pn Mean

 

Further heavy rain affecting the already flood hit counties which will just exacerbate the numerous problems many people are facing right now, combined with high tides and storm surge the ground conditions unfortunately could become a whole lot worse. 

post-9615-0-21487200-1391113811_thumb.pn

 

Further land & coastal flooding, wind damage for some and blowing snow for others (Highlands) - A very active spell of weather coming up and yet again likely to make the headlines for all the wrong reasons. 

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I'm not sure why Met Office high wind warnings are not more widespread for tomorrow as this looks at least as bad for most of Northern England as some of the storms from before Xmas which all had fairly widespread warnings ?

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More worrying about the accumulation of rainfall up to 100-150mm across the nationwide but heavy squally showers with flooding rain in the next few days away.

Posted Image

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Not a good weekend for building card towers in the garden then !!!.....

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Good grief it's horrendeous out there. Persistent heavy driving rain and the gusts have picked up quite a bit just recently, getting a bit stormy now.

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Same here lashing down road getting big puddles already looks very angry looking radar

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I have to thank you folks on here, this is far far more informative than the forum which is supposed to be the model watching/commenting one, but simply turns into a 'when will it snow' thread. Thanks all, very very useful information!! 

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The Midlands rivers, Avon, Soar, Trent , Nene are all at the top of their banks, and have not had chance to drop much since the last downpours as it has been drizzle and rain all week.

With the expected rain, all will enter the flood warning and maybe even Severe warning stage over the weekend so I am suprised that the Met hasn't given wider warnings. I think in a time of normal weather patterns, they would have done with a storm like this, perhaps they are getting a bit of deja vu with these storms and only concentrating on the Cameron soundbite areas.

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NMM showing a wet 3 days coming up, 2inches widely across higher ground in SW England and Wales, up to 3 inches in places. A lot more to come after that too. I expect we'll see significant flooding on the Severn soon and on other rivers in SW England, W Midlands and Wales.

 

Posted Image

 

Strong winds tomorrow as well through the SW, 60-70mph gusts likely

 

Posted Image

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Well tomorrows storm day has started it's run up and bomb out as they say.

My interest is split between said storm and a nasty looking LOW sliding along the Channel on Wednesday, The Isle of Wight and the South coast will fare worse with the latter storm I think.

Interesting times indeed.....

Oh yes and the LOW on Tuesday too... Love the weather it is never boring from the Atlantic at all is it? LOL

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The Midlands rivers, Avon, Soar, Trent , Nene are all at the top of their banks, and have not had chance to drop much since the last downpours as it has been drizzle and rain all week.

With the expected rain, all will enter the flood warning and maybe even Severe warning stage over the weekend so I am suprised that the Met hasn't given wider warnings. I think in a time of normal weather patterns, they would have done with a storm like this, perhaps they are getting a bit of deja vu with these storms and only concentrating on the Cameron soundbite areas.

Yep, the nene through the lower levels are at their highest point :/ all the lowlands East of Peterborough are completely underwater. We could be doing without all this rain.  

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I have to thank you folks on here, this is far far more informative than the forum which is supposed to be the model watching/commenting one, but simply turns into a 'when will it snow' thread. Thanks all, very very useful information!! 

 

My thoughts exactly, I'm not even going to bother having a gander in the model watching, talk about clutching straws.....I would love to see snow but it certainly wont be any major snow fall in the south in the next few weeks if at all this winter.

 

No one mentions about all these storms and rain hardly, it should be renamed 'Snow Watching'

 

If its not going to snow i'd rather we have these storms every now and then instead of boring murkey weather from a winter high....

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Just had a snow shower around 1pm here.

 

Windy across the West of the UK at the moment with the Western Isles reporting gusts up to 72mph. Over the next few hours the winds will start to ease. Saturdays storm currently is still in the Atlantic and the pressure is dropping like a bomb down to 940mb. The storm will slowly weaken slightly before it reaches Ireland at 6am on Saturday morning but still gusts around 70 to 80mph are likely for Ireland and 60 to 70mph for Wales and England.

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Pelting it down with rain here after the earlier snow, winds gusting in excess of 50mph, not a patch on what tomorrows potential holds! And indeed throughout the next week or so. Looking like the most unsettled period of weather of the winter (is that even possible!!) Relentless... 

 

Some colder uppers wrapped up in the depression predicted to make landfall tomorrow, looks like a snowy window in some northern & western areas especially with elevation, accompanied by very windy conditions with damage possible. 

 

post-9615-0-07100500-1391176559_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-00350900-1391176662_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-31565900-1391176944_thumb.pn

 

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