Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Eskimo]

 

The Low for Friday | Saturday has not ''come from nowhere'' 

 

It's been showing on the charts for almost 5 days, it's just that it's moved North. 

 

The modern generation are really blinkered, if it doesn't fit onto your mobile phone screen you just don't bother to look do you !!

• Peripheral vision .... is a wonderful thing kids, try it sometime !!

 

Come on EML, there's no need for that. 

[r_dancing]

I'm visually impaired and can't make out the fine lines on those charts. Could someone please tell me how Manchester is going to be affected please?

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS 12z just out and has made the low slightly deeper and upgraded the wind speeds a touch this storm is look really serious now,

 

12pm Wednesday - Mean speeds to the South of Ireland over 70mph,

 

ukwind.png

 

Gusts of 60 to 70mph across England and Wales while the South of Ireland could see 90mph or slightly more,

 

gust.png

 

3pm is when the high winds will move inland across Ireland, Wales and England. Mean speeds inland ranges from 35 to 45mph,

 

ukwind2.png

 

While the gusts look very severe with 90mph looking likely for the West of Wales and elsewhere across Ireland and England 60 to 75mph,

 

gust2.png

 

6pm The strong winds start to head North into Northern England. Mean speeds for inland area's across Northern England 30 to 45mph,

 

ukwind3.png

 

60 to 70mph gusts across Northern England and parts of Wales. Some places could see over 80mph,

 

gust3.png

 

All I can say is do not under estimate this storm of all the storms I have watched closely this winter I haven't seen charts looking this bad for Ireland, England and Wales and they have had some really high winds already and it makes you wonder what this one will bring that is forecast to be stronger.

 

And if this one does indeed turn out to be as potentially dangerous as shown, I wonder how the TV forecasts will approach the arrival of this Friday/Saturday's surface feature, because as I said earlier they already seemed concerned about that one.

[Snowshine]

Forecast's show the storm downgraded in the Midlands, also the Amber Warning is further West. The storm wont last long either... Especially the rain.

[johnholmes]

I'm visually impaired and can't make out the fine lines on those charts. Could someone please tell me how Manchester is going to be affected please?

 

the latest charts suggest very windy but not disastrously so for the north Manchester area along with a lot of rain. Perhaps you may find the Met O web site and their maps easier to understand. We all enjoy trying to predict the weather from the many charts available to us but they are the experts and are, as they should be, more often right than wrong.

In spite of your visual imparment I hope you enjoy being on Net Wx-don't hesitate to ask questions there is always someone who will be happy to answer you.

[r_dancing]

the latest charts suggest very windy but not disastrously so for the north Manchester area along with a lot of rain. Perhaps you may find the Met O web site and their maps easier to understand. We all enjoy trying to predict the weather from the many charts available to us but they are the experts and are, as they should be, more often right than wrong.In spite of your visual imparment I hope you enjoy being on Net Wx-don't hesitate to ask questions there is always someone who will be happy to answer you.

Thanks very much. Really appreciated.

[scotto]

Can somebody tell me how badly I am likely to be affected by the winds tomorrow, as I am rather confused.  Looking at the models they seem to be showing gusts in the region of 110-120 kph (gfs), and mean speeds of 55-60 kph (euro4) at 18.00, yet the metoffice has it's amber warning much further north than me with wind speeds of 50-60 mph.

Who is right, especially as I thought the metoffice and bbc forecasts used the euro4 model, for their short range forecasts...

[Summer Sun]

M2 sinkhole near Sittingbourne in Kent

 

[Supacell]

The pink area is showing convective gusts of 90 knots, that translates to 103mph!!! 

 

[wimblettben]

I have a feeling that the low showing for Saturday has moved north out of france because as time goes on its just going to end up being over Ireland again giving the worst winds for northern areas.

[Sussex Jules]

I have a feeling that the low showing for Saturday has moved north out of france because as time goes on its just going to end up being over Ireland again giving the worst winds for northern areas.

Wouldn't bank on that it's coming from a different direction.

[Barking_Mad]

What's the likelihood at this stage of the winds being stronger than expected? Is it just the track of the storm that might continue to move?

[johnholmes]

Can somebody tell me how badly I am likely to be affected by the winds tomorrow, as I am rather confused.  Looking at the models they seem to be showing gusts in the region of 110-120 kph (gfs), and mean speeds of 55-60 kph (euro4) at 18.00, yet the metoffice has it's amber warning much further north than me with wind speeds of 50-60 mph.

Who is right, especially as I thought the metoffice and bbc forecasts used the euro4 model, for their short range forecasts...

 

I would suggest the Met O is likely to be nearer the mark, I often comment on the differences between BBC web outputs and Met O. No idea why they differ but they do substanially sometimes.

[Sainsbo]

Can somebody tell me how badly I am likely to be affected by the winds tomorrow, as I am rather confused.  Looking at the models they seem to be showing gusts in the region of 110-120 kph (gfs), and mean speeds of 55-60 kph (euro4) at 18.00, yet the metoffice has it's amber warning much further north than me with wind speeds of 50-60 mph.

Who is right, especially as I thought the metoffice and bbc forecasts used the euro4 model, for their short range forecasts...

 

I really don't think it's possible to answer that question. The situation is very volatile at the moment, and while the potential is there for some very, very strong winds, there is still a sense of uncertainty (I'd say the update from the Met Office also emphasises that fact, being on the highest severity level but one step away from highest on likeliness). I would go by what the Met Office are saying rather than the models, as they have many more models than what we have available to us. Wind and Gust speed can be viewed on the Met Office website, and is updated every hour or so if you want a more local idea, but obviously with the frequent changes in the track (allbeit small), the windspeeds will likely change.

 

Like always in these situations though, it will probably come down to nowcasting as to where the worse hit areas will be.

[wimblettben]

What's the likelihood at this stage of the winds being stronger than expected? Is it just the track of the storm that might continue to move?

To be honest I would say its the track which is causing the most headaches as I think the intensity is pretty much spot on now.

 

Winds for southern areas similar to what we had over the weekend, but something much more menacing for northern areas.

[ANYWEATHER]

Im afraid everyone from the M4 northwards up to northern England, better be prepared for some disruption. Im not sure computer models will have a completely accurate of windspeeds. It a fast moving depression so it wont hang around for too long, but some potentially  serious weather during late morning, afternoon /evening tomorrow, and that's not including the rainfall!

Edited February 11, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Cyclonic]

Looking pretty however on the other hand looking ugly

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-16.40,52.76,3000

[The PIT]

In the firing line tomorrow once the winds swing to the South West. The low I noticed swung a little further south so we're bang in the firing line gusts 70 mph plus should be some damage. Of course it maybe like a lot of the others and simply not turn up.

[Barking_Mad]

I would suggest the Met O is likely to be nearer the mark, I often comment on the differences between BBC web outputs and Met O. No idea why they differ but they do substanially sometimes.

Main difference is bbc doesn't show gust speed, just average wind speed. Which is a bit lame.

[Man With Beard]

Worst winds still away from us though. Good news for most around here I guess.

Hey good call yesterday about the storm correcting north. SW Wales really needs a red warning. This could be an 1987 equivalent for them if the current charts persist. I don't think that's an exaggeration based on what I see on the models - mean winds over 60 mph and perhaps up to 70 mph, gusts well you could say 90mph ish but bet it will be higher. Minor wind damage also possible in a large part of England and Wales.

[terrier]

One saving grace is rain won't hang around long and tides are at there lowest at moment.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though Pembrokeshire will bear some of the the worst of the wind tomorrow ,and the strongest winds a little bit further south on the 12z compared to the 06z...

[Alpine glow]

Hi all. I have been lingering and reading all day - it's the best entertainment and that's meant in the best way

As far as I can see, yes it's shifted north and those further north of the M4 as someone said earlier need to batten down the hatches! But.. The South do too. There is no escaping the fact that the majority of England are going to see some pretty fierce wind speeds tomorrow. We're all in for a rough ride

[The PIT]

One saving grace is rain won't hang around long and tides are at there lowest at moment.

7 hours worth here according to met local forecast and that's excluding any early snow.

[vladthemert]

noticed media focusing on the floods been little mention potential of its powerful winds tomorrow its bad but people need to kept informed this system as well ongoing flood problem.  Without this website all you posters providing model data those in firing line would hardly know.  Wonder if government taking eye on seriousness its developing into.

 

I thank you all updating data.