Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Lynxus]

Apparently, there's going to be a press conference at number 10 this afternoon, "A plan of action" was mentioned. I expect that he'll announce a charge for holding water in your living room?!

 

A new boat tax will be added.

Due to the lack of cars on certain roads they have deemed it necessary to charge boat owners for the use of roads.

 

In all honesty the lack of response from the Gov is terrible. the fact that now oxford / Thames are now being affected suddenly makes it all so much more serious.

 

Gah. im so tired of this Gov.

 

/rant . no more from me.

 

With regards to the weather tomorrow.

Im somewhat happy and saddened by the fact that it wont hit here.

 

We are all storm enthusiast here, We love extreme weather. So im somewhat excited and worried.

To me, its not a matter of who is happy or sad about the weather.. It makes ZERO difference. So if it hits you, Enjoy it while you can ( if you can )

 

Tomorrow is going to be very bad for a lot of people. but at the end of the day, its the UK weather and we are lucky its hitting now when the trees are not in full bloom!

 

The gov need act and to be honest, i think they should force some parts of the country to stay home. Dont go commuting.

 

Its almost impossible to get into tewksbury at the moment due to the floods yesterday and the weekend. Why travel?

.

[Snow free zone]

Is there really any need for this bickering & picking on people? Please cut it out! 

 

Liam - looks like we are right in the firing line for this one at the moment.  We have done well, within reason, to escape the worst of it up to now this winter will have to wait and see if this changes. Looking at the latest meto warnings things could get a little nasty over the next 24-36 hrs.

[Ian Suffolk]

I think having a jab at the government is a little unfair. There is no blame to apportion here; it isn't due to the action or inaction of the government. Unfortunately it is catch 22 for them; whatever they may have done beforehand would never have prevented this from happening; we are talking about one of the biggest rivers in the country here! If that can't cope, then there's not a lot that can be done. If we really need to blame someone it is the planners of these grand homes, who built them on flood plains in the first place. And I don't in any way mean that disrespectfully towards those poor people who may have lost their homes or livelihoods due to this disaster.

Anyway, the storm looks like it will pass slightly further north than the GFS was initially progging. It will be interesting to watch the storm develop on the satellite; as always with these things, its a matter of nowcasting!

[Mapantz]

The BBC's latest graphic..

[Man With Beard]

I think having a jab at the government is a little unfair. There is no blame to apportion here; it isn't due to the action or inaction of the government. Unfortunately it is catch 22 for them; whatever they may have done beforehand would never have prevented this from happening; we are talking about one of the biggest rivers in the country here! If that can't cope, then there's not a lot that can be done. If we really need to blame someone it is the planners of these grand homes, who built them on flood plains in the first place. And I don't in any way mean that disrespectfully towards those poor people who may have lost their homes or livelihoods due to this disaster.Anyway, the storm looks like it will pass slightly further north than the GFS was initially progging. It will be interesting to watch the storm develop on the satellite; as always with these things, its a matter of nowcasting!

Yes strongest winds for Wales and N England, people should be on their guard for tomorrow afternoon, but that doesnt mean no winds at all further south, 50-60mph is still a fair bit inland and I still foresee the odd 70mph on the south coast.On the gvmt response - well type in Hambledon flood into Google and then decide for yourself if the gvmt response is purey media led or not - Hambledon is a small village in Hampshire that has been flooded for weeks, yet last week had a request for flood defence funding turned down - hasn't been on national news much though, co-oincidence?

[laserguy]

Apparently, there's going to be a press conference at number 10 this afternoon, "A plan of action" was mentioned. I expect that he'll announce a charge for holding water in your living room?!

 

Or someone will wheel out some 'global warming' claptrap and suggest that if we all stop using cars and shut the factories for a day, it might be averted! And yes the weather cops are out in force again - be sure to make out that you hate all this stuff that is visited upon us or you may be arrested. I don't wish woe and despair on anyone but if it would alleviate the suffering of the South I'll happily take your storms, thanks.

[TwisterGirl81]

The BBC's latest graphic..1392120616.jpg

interesting, it looks like Exeter is right on the boundary line for 60 - 70mph gusts....December 23 2013 Exeter airport reported a gust of 62mph and that storm was bad so I guess it'll be similar to that in my neck of the woods...weather outlook.com have us pegged at getting 71mph and xc weather it's 68mph....Metcheck, met office it's a little lower.

Keep safe everyone and enjoy the interesting weather

[weirpig]

interesting, it looks like Exeter is right on the boundary line for 60 - 70mph gusts....December 23 2013 Exeter airport reported a gust of 62mph and that storm was bad so I guess it'll be similar to that in my neck of the woods...weather outlook.com have us pegged at getting 71mph and xc weather it's 68mph....Metcheck, met office it's a little lower.Keep safe everyone and enjoy the interesting weather

yeah xc weather also has me down for 70 mph   believe me for being this far inland  that is very windy. interesting times ahead

[Liam J]

Latest from the BBC weather centre, looks different from the graphic posted above regarding the shading and gust speeds - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26137369

 

[weirpig]

Latest from the BBC weather centre, looks different from the graphic posted above regarding the shading and gust speeds - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26137369

 

bbc.png

yep gust speeds have cranked up a notch   developing into a nasty storm.

[E4-Fatboy]

Earlier in the week, there was a mention of a potential storm on Friday/Saturday. Has this threat now passed or is this still a goer.

[alanwh]

Latest from the BBC weather centre, looks different from the graphic posted above regarding the shading and gust speeds - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26137369

 

bbc.png

 

Yep looks like most of West Yorkshire and a touch of South Yorkshire in Firing line now on South East limit of that orange band, where as Met office orange band further North East.

[bma79]

Earlier in the week, there was a mention of a potential storm on Friday/Saturday. Has this threat now passed or is this still a goer.

 

 

Defo still a goer with alot more rain in this one.

[Summer Sun]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #013ISSUED: 1130UTC TUESDAY 11TH FEBRUARY 2014

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WALES, ENGLAND, EASTERN NORTHERN IRELAND & ISLE OF MANHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF FLOODING - WALES, SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH UNTIL 0200UTC THURSDAY 13TH FEBRUARY 2014

 

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING A VERY DEEP 958MB LOW AS IT REACHES THE IRISH SEA, GENERATING SEVERE GALES WITH HEAVY RAIN

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THIS WARNING IS INTENDED TO COMPLEMENT WATCH #012, PLEASE REFER TO THAT FOR GENERAL SYNOPSIS. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE SPECIFIED PERIOD. AS THE DEEP LOW TRANSITS IRELAND, THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF ABOVE 40MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH TO WALES AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ENGLAND THROUGH TO 2100UTC. BEHIND THIS, CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTRE AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WESTERLY WINDS OF ABOVE 50MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LUNCHTIME THROUGH TO MIDNIGHT FOR WALES, IRISH SEA COASTS AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. INTENSE RAINFALL FROM THE INTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE UP TO 20MM WIDELY THROUGH THE AREAS SPECIFIED, WITH PERHAPS ABOVE 50MM FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF WALES AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, LEADING TO A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND EXACERBATING CURRENT FLOODING ISSUES. A SHOWERY POST-FRONTAL REGIME MAY ADD TO TOTALS HERE AND ELSEWHERE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER, PARTICULARLY MID TO SOUTH WALES, THERE MAY BE LARGE WAVES OF UP TO 20FT ATOP A STORM SURGE ADDING POSSIBLY ABOVE 1M TO HIGH TIDE LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING. DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ADVISED. PLEASE REFER TO WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

**** alerts contd below ****

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #012ISSUED: 1130UTC TUESDAY 11TH FEBRUARY 2014

 

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - WALES, ENGLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHERN & EASTERN SCOTLAND, ALL ISLES (EXCEPT WESTERN SCOTLAND)HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF FLOODING - WALES, SOUTHERN & NORTHWESTERN ENGLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SCOTLANDHEAVY LOCALLY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL - WESTERN, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, WESTERN NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH UNTIL 0800UTC THURSDAY 13TH FEBRUARY 2014

 

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING A VERY DEEP 958MB LOW AS IT REACHES THE IRISH SEA, GENERATING SEVERE GALES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THIS WATCH IS INTENDED TO COMPLEMENT WARNING #013, PLEASE REFER TO THAT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE UK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS UNDER THE JET NOSE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UK AS IT TRANSITS NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND IT'S SOUTHERN FLANK, STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CELTIC SEA TRANSLATING TO SEVERE GALES FOR WALES AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS WITH GALES ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE WINDS OF ABOVE 40MPH WITH UP TO 70MPH GUSTS BRIEFLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH REGIONS SHOULD SEE WINDS OF ABOVE 40MPH WITH POSSIBLE 70MPH GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRAPPING OCCLUSION. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20MM WIDELY, WITH IN EXCESS OF 40MM FOR HIGHER GROUND. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW OVER THE AREAS SPECIFIED, WITH POSSIBILITIES OF GREATER THAN 10CM EVEN TO LOW LEVELS, THOUGH THIS RISK DIMINISHES FURTHER SOUTH. DIRECT OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT ADVISED AS WINDS COULD BE DAMAGING. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Lynxus]

Wow, looks like we will miss the majority of it all now.

This time yesterday we were looking to take the brunt of it ( including the rain )

 

However now its looking like ( here at least ) will miss most of the wind and most of the rain. it seems to "split" north south of here

 

Still as before, Im in two minds if this is good or bad.

[wimblettben]

Well what can I say, utterly pathetic really.

 

Just another proper good wind storm gone again for us and just more rotten flooding concerns where it isn't needed.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

wait

Edited February 11, 2014 by Surrey

[Liam J]

Is it just me that thinks that skywarn warning is rather confusing 

[wimblettben]

Spot the difference.. Laughable!

 

 

 

 

Thats got to be a joke!

 

There won't even be a storm if that happens!!!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thats got to be a joke!

 

There won't even be a storm if that happens!!!!!

 

My bad changing now..

Sorry used the wrong graphics here we go

 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Surrey

[A.J]

Thats got to be a joke!

 

There won't even be a storm if that happens!!!!!

First things first, there will be a nasty wind storm accompanied by heavy rain sadly.....and secondly, a lot of folk would breathe a big sigh of relief though if you are right. So might be worth baring that in mind when posting the 'wall banging' emoticon

[Liam J]

My bad changing now..

Sorry used the wrong graphics here we go

 

Looks like it's going to plan comparing those two charts. Incoming! Shouldn't be long before rapid cyclogenesis begins. 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

Here's our storm on the left at 997mb as of 12pm, rapidly intensifying with developing hurricane force winds

 

 

Forecast to be across NW Ireland by 12pm tomorrow

[wimblettben]

Noticed somones post got deleted, don't know why.

 

Anyway yes it will be a bad storm for whoever it hits, but thats not the point. I am annoyed as its just going to end up like a typical blowy day for us down here.

[Rammie]

Noticed somones post got deleted, don't know why.

 

Anyway yes it will be a bad storm for whoever it hits, but thats not the point. I am annoyed as its just going to end up like a typical blowy day for us down here.

You somehow seem pretty confident about that.