Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Matty M]

GEM takes the more northern track.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[Sainsbo]

GFS looking slightly less severe, but still a very strong storm. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM and UKMO say tonight.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tomorrow we will know or find out the fine details, this is just one run so I would expect changes again tonight lets see..

[Matty M]

@ Liam J

 

[sunnijim]

I wonder whether this thing will retain its strength but end up further north, hitting the usual areas such as scotland or northern england the worst. Some latest models have just started to indicate this, so either it will dramatically downgrade by tomorrow or just end up in a more usual area for the strength of this type of low.

Are you saying that unless it hits Scotland then the whole thing will be downgraded tomorrow? I think thats just wishful thinking,the experts seem certain of a serious Wind event for large parts of England on Wednesday,a very damaging one for some folk.

[Liam J]

I think the track will depend partly on how it interacts with the area of low pressure to the north, if it phases sooner the track will be further NW. 

[vladthemert]

sounds to me best solution make it holiday for the day looking those runs.  Help at moment in firing line lot wind from 3pm onwards.  Time live in the bath get lid .  I actually excited and petrified at the same time live in highrise where the area increases winds like vortex. Not good when we could see 70mph gusts.

 

Which brings the question is it now time for uk to invest in storm measures at homes like america.

[Liam J]

@ Liam J

 

Thanks Matty, the Hirlam models takes the strongest winds further to the NW through S Ireland and into the Irish Sea. Where can I view these charts?

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[wimblettben]

Are you saying that unless it hits Scotland then the whole thing will be downgraded tomorrow? I think thats just wishful thinking,the experts seem certain of a serious Wind event for large parts of England on Wednesday,a very damaging one for some folk.

Well no its not wishfull thinking, just an impression I have looking at the latest models.

 

Quite a few are changing the track of this, so it is quite likely that it will end up in a more usual place and many southern parts would have the usual 40-60mph gusts.

[Mapantz]

Well no its not wishfull thinking, just an impression I have looking at the latest models.Quite a few are changing the track of this, so it is quite likely that it will end up in a more usual place and many southern parts would have the usual 40-60mph gusts.

I'm not being funny but just yesterday, you made a post in the SW/Southern regional thread that implied nothing noteworthy would happen in terms of stormy conditions this week. A few of your posts have been quite blasé about it which is odd, as you're not normally like that. Edited February 10, 2014 by Mapantz

[Matty M]

Thanks Matty, the Hirlam models takes the strongest winds further to the NW through S Ireland and into the Irish Sea. Where can I view these charts?

Denmark one here: http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

 

Various versions of the Hirlam though.

Estonian here: http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

[Eskimo]

The wind will be a problem of course, but the rain will be the biggest issue for sure. 

[Matty M]

GFS Ensembles have made a significant jog north with the track from the 6z.

Hirlam type track now more preferred.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Matty M

[Matty M]

Think the focus now could turn more to places like Wales and Liam J's back yard!

[Zenarcher]

12z runs so far,

 

GFS - Storm force winds hitting Southern Ireland, Wales and England.

 

 

UKMO - Same track as the GFS although not as deep.

 

 

JMA - Slightly more South than the GFS and the UKMO but about the same deepness as the UKMO.

 

 

GME - Very similar track to the JMA and the same deepness as well.

 

 

GEM - Slightly more North than the rest bringing the stronger winds more inland for Ireland but still shows high winds for Wales and England.

 

 

NAVGEM - Similar track to the UKMO and GFS.

 

 

Overall - The UKMO and GFS have good agreements with some other models but the JMA and GEM both show there is a slight chance it could track more South or North.

 

GFS Ensembles =

 

Out of the 20 members about 11 of them agree with the current track that is shown. 5 Show the low to be more South and 4 have it slightly more North.

[Sainsbo]

Very handy graphic, courtesy of the Met Office on Twitter:

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Sainsbo

[wimblettben]

 Reality check needed guys, its obvious this low is going to miss us down south and give northern areas the big winds, unless it sneaks up on us by accident and sends 70mph constant winds blowing roofs off of allready flooded houses.

 

Life, don't talk to me about life!

[weirpig]

Think the focus now could turn more to places like Wales and Liam J's back yard!

Track could and will change  but as it is at the moment middle third of country looks most at risk at the  mo.

[Rammie]

The wind will be a problem of course, but the rain will be the biggest issue for sure. 

Could you please clarify something for me? Is there rain due before that low arrives? ie, between now and Wed PM?

[Sainsbo]

 Reality check needed guys, its obvious this low is going to miss us down south and give northern areas the big winds, unless it sneaks up on us by accident and sends 70mph constant winds blowing roofs off of allready flooded houses.

 

Life, don't talk to me about life!

 

What makes you so certain? The 6z runs had good agreement that the low was going to track further south, and now on the 12z, the emphasis has shifted slightly north. There's nothing to say that that won't change, and I think that the fact that the early Amber Warning from the Met Office span quite a large area hilights the uncertainty in the possible track and intensity.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Liam J]

GEFS mean @ 54 & 60hrs, still a few options on the table. Lots to iron out over the next 24 hours or so!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=60

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[Man With Beard]

Very handy graphic, courtesy of the Met Office on Twitter:

 

So the northerly track actually puts more areas in the firing line. METO perhaps not seeing it as intense as some models (80 mph max gusts rather than 90/100 mph on GFS). Tonight's models shows the deepening of the low ending just before the point it makes landfall, so possibly less severe than it looked earlier. But we're talking small margins, still as strong as anything this winter and maybe more.

[wimblettben]

What makes you so certain? The 6z runs had good agreement that the low was going to track further south, and now on the 12z, the emphasis has shifted slightly north. There's nothing to say that that won't change, and I think that the fact that the early Amber Warning from the Met Office hilights the uncertainty in the possible track and intensity.

Yes but that was the point of my post. Life is stressful.

 

The track is very uncertain, we could end up with people in southern areas thinking it will be fine and then wake up on Thursday morning with their roof blown off and trees uprooted.

[Matty M]

Very handy graphic, courtesy of the Met Office on Twitter:

 

Think they really ought to have another alternate track further northwest!!

[Liam J]

Think they really ought to have another alternate track further northwest!!

Looks that way on the most recent model data, I expect we'll know more tomorrow as the event gets nearer and the depression is undergoing cyclogenesis out in the Atlantic, the models will get a better handle on it, it could phase with the main trough to the north and this will result in the depression taking a turn to the north sooner. 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J