Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Sainsbo]

72hr ECMWF with its better resolution ups the ante.

Track a little further north than other solutions.

 

 

 

Yep. Definitely not a chart you want to see at just 72 hours away!

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If that took a path a little more north than St Jude, I guess it will be a repeat of that day, but more of us involved? Not looking good this. Lets hear peoples thoughts on this, this is looking to be possibly severe.

[Rustynailer]

Although most of the most explosive developments come courtesy of the GFS, this is indeed looking like a very lively week ahead with a crazy mix of weather types all on offer. Even if I'm into active weather like many others, we surely need a break from all this raging zonal madness don't we? Are the weather gods listening? Yet another Winter for the record books whichever way one views things I suppose.

The Gods say the Pope released some Doves and the gull is the storm's, as can be plainly seen, the Gulls fly like any other day, where even the army wait (like yesterday), What is the Crow? 

 

I just don't see it being as bad as shown personally. The only way I see it being very bad is that it deepens very fast without anyone knowing about it.

 

Expect it to keep changing until nearer the event where a much less extreme version will happen.

 

Even if it did verify it would probably only be the same as the storm back in October last year. Nothing too devasting like the 87 storm, just one that may uproot a few trees.,

Spring tide, take no prisoners. We will see. 

 

Not strictly true that,October was really just alot of media hype,a few local gusts of 80mph but within an hour timeframe.However you forget its equal gust wise on Christmas eve in the SE,it went on for several hours and caused more widespread damage.

In 1987. When I finally got a train through to London from Herne Bay 9 days later (The railway was rusty and closed) The rout to the capital and the Capital looked like a war zone.....Yet by Watford Junction on a Northern bound train, on a proper railway with overhead electrified lines(!) there was barely a leaf out of place.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Liam J]

ECM tracks the storm over N Ireland towards W Scotland with severe gales wrapped round the eastern & southern flanks, very wet as well! 

 

 

925mb chart but you can see how tight the isobars are. 

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by Liam J

[gottolovethisweather]

The Gods say the Pope released some Doves and the gull is the storm's, as can be plainly seen, the Gulls fly like any other day, where even the army wait (like yesterday), What is the Crow? 

 

 

 

Good point Rusty, the Crows were shown to kill one of the doves as was one of the Gulls, both enough of them to go around that's for sure and not so many of the wee little birds anymore. If any of the other folk are wondering what on earth we are talking about, it was a true event just a couple of weeks back.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546218/Birds-released-Vatican-gesture-peace-immediately-attacked-vicious-seagull-crow.html

 

Not that we can blame god's creatures for Mother Nature's wrath, she's only doing what she does best after all. The worst will be over before too long and maybe another warm Spring and Summer will banish our current thoughts until its our turn again in the not too distant future, unfortunately.  

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Rustynailer]

Good point Rusty, the Crows were shown to kill one of the doves as was one of the Gulls, both enough of them to go around that's for sure and not so many of the wee little birds anymore. If any of the other folk are wondering what on earth we are talking about, it was a true event just a couple of weeks back.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546218/Birds-released-Vatican-gesture-peace-immediately-attacked-vicious-seagull-crow.html

 

Not that we can blame god's creatures for Mother Nature's wrath, she's only doing what she does best after all. The worst will be over before too long and maybe another warm Spring and Summer will banish our current thoughts until its our turn again in the not too distant future, unfortunately.  

As I said at the time, The pope was blown over ot the tent he was in, in South America just before the 1987 storm. I will always remember that about 87.

The Pope was unharmed, but looked shocked.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Rustynailer

[wimblettben]

I think at most this storm if it verified would be the same as the storm we had back in October last year for most places.

 

As mentioned in the other thread though there was no mention on BBC Points West of any storms or severe gales for us just flooding concerns and more heavy rain.

[matty40s]

To be honest, most of the damage rain-wise was done from the 6th-7th with 18 hours of persistent heavy rain from the Midlands southwards. This put already saturated land into spongesqueeze mode and filled watercourses immediately. Even canals rose above the towpaths. The Avon, Cherwell, lea and stort and many other rivers just couldnt cope, and now the Thames cannot cope either.

It us not so much the quick moving storms, but the fronts which arent quite driven by the jetstream and stall which are the greatest risk at the moment.

[geoffw]

i think the ecm would bring more than just force 9 severe gales

[Richie V]

Yes it is, sorry in light of recent events, that sounds really selfish. Take care folks in the south west.

Yep. Definitely not a chart you want to see at just 72 hours away!

 

[wimblettben]

i think the ecm would bring more than just force 9 severe gales

However its just one model run, and could very easily change fast.

 

To put things into perspective, the 1990 Burns day storm had inland mean speeds of gales to severe gales, and this was one of the most severe storms the UK has ever experienced in hundreds of years.

 

The chances of this coming weeks storm being worse then the severe gales of 1990 or 1987 are pretty slim.

[Matty M]

i think the ecm would bring more than just force 9 severe gales

 Sustained winds hitting the western Irish coast are near 60 knots @ 72hrs.

850hPa winds are > 100 knots, which gusts to surface likely hitting 90knots.

 

It would be definitely Violent Storm 11, ocassionally Hurriance Force 12.

[Rustynailer]

However its just one model run, and could very easily change fast.

 

To put things into perspective, the 1990 Burns day storm had inland mean speeds of gales to severe gales, and this was one of the most severe storms the UK has ever experienced in hundreds of years.

 

The chances of this coming weeks storm being worse then the severe gales of 1990 or 1987 are pretty slim.

There could be a pattern, in which case the worse storms coincide with the spring tides, this year for whatever reason the jet has lined up with the tides somewhat.

So you may not have seen the last or the worse, may being the word.....Of course your logic I find correct and I find what you say quite right in all the years I have lived always the same in the end, but this year may be not, indeed.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Summer Sun]

The image below shows the extent of the floods across somerset

 

[tinybill]

the river  Thames  has  now  gone past  the record  lev grave  problems  of flooding people have  been warned get ready  to get  out

[Rustynailer]

the river  Thames  has  now  gone past  the record  lev grave  problems  of flooding people have  been warned get ready  to get  out

Neap (slight tides) are till the 11th then the start to get bigger. The bigger the tide the more reason to close the Thames barrier,.....

This could make Somerset levels/West countryrailway the second most costly flood loss this winter any time it pleases.

COBRA you better have eyes like a snake and ears like....

Edited February 9, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Rustynailer]

As I said at the time, The pope was blown over ot the tent he was in, in South America just before the 1987 storm. I will always remember that about 87.

The Pope was unharmed, but looked shocked.

 

 

Good point Rusty, the Crows were shown to kill one of the doves as was one of the Gulls, both enough of them to go around that's for sure and not so many of the wee little birds anymore. If any of the other folk are wondering what on earth we are talking about, it was a true event just a couple of weeks back.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546218/Birds-released-Vatican-gesture-peace-immediately-attacked-vicious-seagull-crow.html

 

Not that we can blame god's creatures for Mother Nature's wrath, she's only doing what she does best after all. The worst will be over before too long and maybe another warm Spring and Summer will banish our current thoughts until its our turn again in the not too distant future, unfortunately.  

The rivers could be where the crows are from, especially if the tidal surges make the barriers need close with the fiver flooding. Check Mate.

Dove/Crow/Seagull.

Anyway its all probably nothing and we will be fine I am sure.

[tinybill]

country file weather  dire  storms  up to  next  sunday  appox 60  mm  of  rain or  more

[Mapantz]

Not to be taken at face value but still a good indicator of what may be lurking this week, courtesy of the NMM.

[cyclonic happiness]

the river  Thames  has  now  gone past  the record  lev grave  problems  of flooding people have  been warned get ready  to get  out

So if there were a northeasterly gale after the storm passed, would central london be at risk of floods?

[pip22]

London can be a huge concern if the Thames were to break its banks in the city center. I don't mind parliament gets flooded though because they deserved it.

[Rustynailer]

It seems that the wind will be blowing off shore, so the water will be driven down the river rather than up it.

At the Barrier this slightly Shakespearean question  may arise :-  "to close or Not to close" 

Maybe this is too worrying for further thought at the moment.....

Interesting times.

[Matty M]

Of course the ECMWF ensembles are delayed tonight!

[Summer Sun]

Of course the ECMWF ensembles are delayed tonight!

 

Not on wetterzentral http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html 3rd line down

[Matty M]

Not on wetterzentral http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html 3rd line down

Yep, thanks.

However i am interested in the individual member maps.