Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Mokidugway]

What we need is some VERY cold weather.Then when the water freezes it can smashed up and trucked to the coast lol.

100 million tons of water probably 5 million truck loads , can you imagine the pot holes after that!!!....

[Bovril]

We have been very lucky in London up till now, escaped 90% of the bad weather almost feels like we're in a different country.

The  model runs posted a few pages back for next week looks like our luck is about to run out? 

[tinybill]

well as  our  friends  over  pond  would  say  the outer   reaches are  now  over  cornwall

Edited February 7, 2014 by tinybill

[R.P. McMurphy]

well as  our  friends  over  pond  would  say  the outer   reaches are  now  over  cornwall

 

Yup, tomorrow is looking horrible some some places, especially the SW, interesting developments. Been a strange old Winter.

[Storm Track]

Near-record low pressures right there.Looks like to be near or even match the 1987 storm

This is one of the most scary storms with even more powerful windstorm in hurricane force but hopefully to be downgrades

[Zenarcher]

Now using the NMM high res model for Saturdays storm,

 

Friday 8pm to Saturday 12am - Strong winds from the South East will move in from the West bringing gusts of 65mph around the coasts of Ireland, Wales and Southern England.

 

 

Rainfall totals up to this time will be high over Southern Ireland, Wales and the SW of England,

 

 

Saturday 1am to 7am - The strongest winds will now be over South Eastern England giving 50 to 60mph gusts. At the same time round 2 of the strong winds starts to move in from the West again across Southern Ireland bringing 60mph for them,

 

 

Rainfall totals continue to rise across the country with Northern England and Southern Scotland seeing a lot of rainfall during this time,

 

 

Saturday 8am to 8pm - Southern Ireland, Wales, Southern England, SW and SE England and the Midlands will see a long time period of constant strong winds. Along the coasts and exposed parts 60 to 70mph gusts and inland parts 45 to 55mph gusts,

 

 

The rain continues mostly across the West and North with parts of Ireland, Wales, S England, N England and S Scotland seeing high totals by this point,

 

 

Saturday 9pm to Sunday 9am - Eastern and South Eastern England by now have the strongest winds and into the early hours of Sunday they begin to drop. 45 to 55mph gusts for inland parts but I think some places may reach 60mph. Along the coasts 65 to 70mph gusts,

 

 

The highest total rainfall is the worst for Western Ireland, Wales, SW England and N England,

 

Edited February 7, 2014 by weathermaster

[Rustynailer]

The bad thing about this coming storm, is that people are generally home from work, near the coast this leads to nutters being brave and being in danger of getting swept away during daylight hours, during the week in Winter this does not usually happen because its dark and dangerous down by the sea at night when people are home from work IMO

Secondly, large coastal erosion events usually get worse during such prolonged rough seas, like now through to Sunday. Big slips are a real possibility, how big is any ones guess.....

Thirdly, the wind is going to blow the sea to such a state that will be bound to cause damage to already weakened structures that cost money to mend/replace.. 

Number Four, Trees are likely to become a problem again in Southern England like 87, its the big evergreens, they were at their limit during the last storm, just 10 mph more and lots of big evergreen trees will be blown either to bits or right over, the time these trees have been relentlessly blown in all directions is taking its toll aswell. I especially worry locally as we have lots of large evergreens still standing on the Isle of Wight

Good luck everybody, avoid the temptation to go where the sea or the wind might get you. Stay in Is best near the  Southern and Western coast's during the worst.

Edited February 7, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Tattooed Fox]

This is one of the most scary storms with even more powerful windstorm in hurricane force but hopefully to be downgrades

 

How come Fergie has not mentioned that this storm is supposed to be this powerful.  He just basically made it no more worse than tonights.  Any pointers as the papers and some radio stations were on about it was supposed to be one of the worse ones.

[Spikecollie]

 

 

4

inShare

The US National Weather Service's Global Forecast System keeps track of the world's weather. It's an incredibly valuable repository of information, but its data, shown in DayGlo charts peppered with numbers, isn't the easiest to visualize without a degree in meteorology. That's where the Earth Wind Map can come in handy. It takes the the Global Forecast System's data — updated every three hours — and applies it to a zoomable map. The result is a beautiful representation of the world's wind in almost real-time.

Earth Wind Map is interactive. Click and drag the globe and you'll spin it in place, then wait a few seconds before the data appears in the form of snaking lines. Gentle breezes are thin strands of green, strong winds are long streaks of bright yellow, while the strongest currents are an angry red. Take a trip around Earth Wind Map's globe now and you'll be able to compare the light summer winds currently wafting across northern Brazil with the swirling gusts off the north-east coast of Japan, a hypnotic and colorful reminder of our planet's wildly changing weather.

 

 

This supercomputer-powered site, called simply "earth," takes global weather mapping to a whole new level. Software developer Cameron Beccario built this visualization of global weather patterns, which updates ever 3 hours.

You can turn the animated globe, and you can zoom in on particular locations. You can also see the earth from different heights, and use different overlay options (such as temperature and sea level pressure) to make the globe that much more beautiful.

 

 

The map relies on data compiled by NOAA's Global Forecast System to update its global wind patterns every three hours, and OSCAR Earth and Space Research to update its ocean surface current patterns every five days.

Details are thin on the ground on the sparsely-designed website, created by software engineer Mr Beccario, but it describes itself as a 'visualisation of global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers'.

It follows an interactive global wind map, also created by Mr Beccario. Studied together, they reveal just how unpredictable our planet’s weather system can be.

Ocean currents transport huge amounts of heat around the world, making them one of the most important driving forces of climate.

Perhaps the most striking example is the Gulf Stream, which makes northwest Europe milder than other regions at the same latitude.

 

The currents are generated from the forces acting upon the water like the Earth's rotation, the wind, the temperature and salinity differences and the gravitation of the moon.

 

 

Hope that helps

 

 

It is a truly beautiful modelisation...

Now using the NMM high res model for Saturdays storm,

 

Friday 8pm to Saturday 12am - Strong winds from the South East will move in from the West bringing gusts of 65mph around the coasts of Ireland, Wales and Southern England.

 

G1.png

 

Rainfall totals up to this time will be high over Southern Ireland, Wales and the SW of England,

 

R.png

 

Saturday 1am to 7am - The strongest winds will now be over South Eastern England giving 50 to 60mph gusts. At the same time round 2 of the strong winds starts to move in from the West again across Southern Ireland bringing 60mph for them,

 

G2.png

 

Rainfall totals continue to rise across the country with Northern England and Southern Scotland seeing a lot of rainfall during this time,

 

R2.png

 

Saturday 8am to 8pm - Southern Ireland, Wales, Southern England, SW and SE England and the Midlands will see a long time period of constant strong winds. Along the coasts and exposed parts 60 to 70mph gusts and inland parts 45 to 55mph gusts,

 

G3.png

 

The rain continues mostly across the West and North with parts of Ireland, Wales, S England, N England and S Scotland seeing high totals by this point,

 

R3.png

 

Saturday 9pm to Sunday 9am - Eastern and South Eastern England by now have the strongest winds and into the early hours of Sunday they begin to drop. 45 to 55mph gusts for inland parts but I think some places may reach 60mph. Along the coasts 65 to 70mph gusts,

 

G4.png

 

The highest total rainfall is the worst for Western Ireland, Wales, SW England and N England,

 

R4.png

Can I be heard howling from here in Dijon? As I have said to others, I will let you know what it was like to traverse Ruth and her entourage tomorrow evening (or if I am totally knackered and hit the wine bottle and then the bed, Sunday!)

[Spikecollie]

The bad thing about this coming storm, is that people are generally home from work, near the coast this leads to nutters being brave and being in danger of getting swept away during daylight hours, during the week in Winter this does not usually happen because its dark and dangerous down by the sea at night when people are home from work IMO

Secondly, large coastal erosion events usually get worse during such prolonged rough seas, like now through to Sunday. Big slips are a real possibility, how big is any ones guess.....

Thirdly, the wind is going to blow the sea to such a state that will be bound to cause damage to already weakened structures that cost money to mend/replace.. 

Number Four, Trees are likely to become a problem again in Southern England like 87, its the big evergreens, they were at their limit during the last storm, just 10 mph more and lots of big evergreen trees will be blown either to bits or right over, the time these trees have been relentlessly blown in all directions is taking its toll aswell. I especially worry locally as we have lots of large evergreens still standing on the Isle of Wight

Good luck everybody, avoid the temptation to go where the sea or the wind might get you. Stay in Is best near the  Southern and Western coast's during the worst.

Big evergreens like overgrown leylandii should be banned and/or compulsorily removed. They are a landscape eyesore and, in these kinds of conditions, a danger by being in the wrong place.

[Eero Hermann]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/07/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-17.17,44.29,477

 

160 km/h

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=boen&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

[Skullzrulerz]

This is one of the most scary storms with even more powerful windstorm in hurricane force but hopefully to be downgrades

There better be downgrades soon or its going to be one of the strongest storm or storms in recent times else.

[Eero Hermann]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=boen&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

[joanna1971]

It's been a good dry day here in Shrewsbury , although the Severn is looking worrying..I'm off to criccieth tomorrow, sea view room to watch it safely and warmly...do you think I will get a good show from the seas and winds?

[R.P. McMurphy]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/07/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-17.17,44.29,477

 

160 km/h

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=boen&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

 

Thats the upper atmosphere, 850hPa.

 

You need 1000.

[towbar0]

It is a truly beautiful modelisation...

Can I be heard howling from here in Dijon? As I have said to others, I will let you know what it was like to traverse Ruth and her entourage tomorrow evening (or if I am totally knackered and hit the wine bottle and then the bed, Sunday!)

....I once proposed to a Ruth. Nice girl. She was 8, I was 6... Ok, off topic, ..sorry....

[Mapantz]

I'm taking a trip to Durdle Door tomorrow, camera and anemometer charged!

[Mokidugway]

Concidered driving down to cornwall myself but other half not keen on an 800mile round trip this weekend !!...

[Man With Beard]

Hope it's ok to ask these questions in here, seems like the best place but please move if not.

 

How are "storm lovers" feeling about what's going on? Because of the problems in the South-West (and all around my area too, just not making the nationals), have you started feeling a little embarrassed about wanting big storms to hit? I've lived near the coast most of my life and I love seeing massive waves crash on the beach and feeling the force of a strong gale. But I'm now feeling I can't look forward to these storms any more because you know the trouble they are causing.

 

Or is anyone after another 1987 and are actually getting excited by what next week might bring? I was just a boy in 1987, living slightly inland in the South East, and I remember being scared out of my mind waking up at 2am in the morning, and looking out of my window, it really did seem like the world might end - but I'm kind of glad I got to experience it. Maybe some on here are too young to remember,or maybe lived in a different part of the country, and would like to know what the fuss was all about.

 

I imagine it's a tricky thing if you love storms or want to experience the extremes of nature. Some of the charts for next week clearly fit that category, though far from nailed on. But with the winter we're having, has it become wrong to want the worst charts for next week to actually happen?

Edited February 7, 2014 by rjbw

[terrier]

At least looking after mid week hopefully things will settle down. Models showing less rainfall later next week so hopefully a time to dry out. And at least we are seeing neap tides this weekend so shouldn't see the awful over topping and coastal flooding with the tides been much lower. Which I suppose is a small blessing.

[coldfingers]

Concidered driving down to cornwall myself but other half not keen on an 800mile round trip this weekend !!...

Looks like the other half is the sensible half. I personally wouldn't want to be either there or in South west Ireland.

[coldfingers]

Hope it's ok to ask these questions in here, seems like the best place but please move if not.

 

How are "storm lovers" feeling about what's going on? Because of the problems in the South-West (and all around my area too, just not making the nationals), have you started feeling a little embarrassed about wanting big storms to hit? I've lived near the coast most of my life and I love seeing massive waves crash on the beach and feeling the force of a strong gale. But I'm now feeling I can't look forward to these storms any more because you know the trouble they are causing.

 

Or is anyone after another 1987 and are actually getting excited by what next week might bring? I was just a boy in 1987, living slightly inland in the South East, and I remember being scared out of my mind waking up at 2am in the morning, and looking out of my window, it really did seem like the world might end - but I'm kind of glad I got to experience it. Maybe some on here are too young to remember,or maybe lived in a different part of the country, and would like to know what the fuss was all about.

 

I imagine it's a tricky thing if you love storms or want to experience the extremes of nature. Some of the charts for next week clearly fit that category, though far from nailed on. But with the winter we're having, has it become wrong to want the worst charts for next week to actually happen?

Personally rjbw I think if you enjoy storms then carry on enjoying them. Nothing you feel about them will change what happens or doesn't happen. I was down on the coast here in '87 aged 36 and I slept through the worst of it. Horrified the next day by the devastation and loss of life but that did spark my continuing interest in the weather and as I couldn't have made one iota of difference to the outcome then I say enjoy it if you wish to. And yes, I feel very sorry for some people severely affected but I also realise they most often made the choice to live where they did, despite living in 'dodgy' areas. In Somerset I feel very sorry for the people as that was mainly caused by mismanagement of the watercourses, not by nature alone.

Edited February 7, 2014 by coldfingers

[Laurie61]

It's been a good dry day here in Shrewsbury , although the Severn is looking worrying..I'm off to criccieth tomorrow, sea view room to watch it safely and warmly...do you think I will get a good show from the seas and winds?

 

I watched a piece on Midlands today yesterday about the Vyrnwy dam being full. Any extra rain will now come straight over the dam and into the river, it runs into the Severn so this will only add to river levels. 

[Barking_Mad]

Hope it's ok to ask these questions in here, seems like the best place but please move if not.

 

How are "storm lovers" feeling about what's going on? Because of the problems in the South-West (and all around my area too, just not making the nationals), have you started feeling a little embarrassed about wanting big storms to hit? I've lived near the coast most of my life and I love seeing massive waves crash on the beach and feeling the force of a strong gale. But I'm now feeling I can't look forward to these storms any more because you know the trouble they are causing.

 

Or is anyone after another 1987 and are actually getting excited by what next week might bring? I was just a boy in 1987, living slightly inland in the South East, and I remember being scared out of my mind waking up at 2am in the morning, and looking out of my window, it really did seem like the world might end - but I'm kind of glad I got to experience it. Maybe some on here are too young to remember,or maybe lived in a different part of the country, and would like to know what the fuss was all about.

 

I imagine it's a tricky thing if you love storms or want to experience the extremes of nature. Some of the charts for next week clearly fit that category, though far from nailed on. But with the winter we're having, has it become wrong to want the worst charts for next week to actually happen?

 

VIdeo of flooding in Portsmouth area.

 

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/bad-weather-leads-to-flooding-across-the-area-1-5785095

[Barking_Mad]

I watched a piece on Midlands today yesterday about the Vyrnwy dam being full. Any extra rain will now come straight over the dam and into the river, it runs into the Severn so this will only add to river levels. 

 

Interesting. From Wikipedia. 59 gigalitres is 60,000,000,000 litres of water. That's a lot of rain water.

 

The reservoir is Severn Trent Water's largest. When full, it can take as much as up to 59.666 gigalitres (1.3125×10¹⁰ imp gal), and it covers an area of 4.53 square kilometres (1,120 acres) of land, the equivalent of around 600 football pitches. The lake has acircumference of 11 miles (18 km) with a road that goes all the way around it. Its length is 4.75 miles (7.64 km). On a clear day the lake, along with many others in North Wales, can be seen from space.

311 streams, waterfalls and rivers flow into the lake and are named after the mountains or hillsides they flow from. Some are no more than a trickle, while others cascade down the mountains. 

 

 

Seems the Dam is actually already spilling over into the river:

 

Water was cascading over the dam at the Lake Vyrnwy Reservoir in Mid Wales today sparking fears today’s rain will cause more flooding as it feeds into the River Vyrnwy, joining the River Severn near Melverley. 

 

 

http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2014/02/07/flood-barriers-back-up-as-shropshire-flooding-continues/

Edited February 7, 2014 by Barking_Mad