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Coast

Atlantic Storms February 2014

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Here we go again!

 

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Of course, there's a shed load more rain:

 

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In years gone by we'd be really interested in a deep low like this coming in off the Atlantic. But with the continual bombardment we've had this Winter, the Met O fax chart is almost unremarkable despite a circa 956 mb centre:

 

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Certainly a great concern and also must not forget any snow goes melted into the rivers and streams! 

 

 

 

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I have also heard fergie talking about high tides all the way down the western side of the uk concerning as well. This little island is in danger of being blown away. Really is a cause for concern

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post-6667-0-08838600-1390996695_thumb.pn

 

Yellow warning of Rain
 
Issued at: 
1138 on Wed 29 Jan 2014
 
Valid from: 
0800 on Fri 31 Jan 2014
 
Valid to: 
0300 on Sat 1 Feb 2014
 
A further area of heavy rain will spread eastwards across the UK on Friday, clearing the southeast of England during the early hours of Saturday. 20-30 mm of rain will fall quite widely, with around 40 mm on some high ground in the southwest of England and south Wales. The heavy rain will be accompanied by strong to gale force winds. The public should be aware of possible disruption, primarily due to further flooding, chiefly in areas already, or recently, affected.
 
This is an update to the warning first issued on Tuesday. 
 
Another very deep area of low pressure will spread heavy rain and strong to gale force winds eastwards across the UK during Friday, before the associated frontal systems clear the southeast of England during the early hours of Saturday. Following recent wet weather, the areas highlighted have saturated ground and are particularly sensitive to further heavy rain.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391212800&regionName=wl

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In years gone by we'd be really interested in a deep low like this coming in off the Atlantic. But with the continual bombardment we've had this Winter, the Met O fax chart is almost unremarkable despite a circa 956 mb centre:

 

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Yes I agree, it would be all over the news and the forum would be buzzing about it LOL

My thoughts about this next stormy period can not help going down the "winter will save the best storms till last" route, maybe it is wishful thinking.

 One thought that springs to mind, less old people die from winter storms than from winter cold spells, so nature is cruel to be kind.....

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Ireland looks the worst place to get hit on Saturday according to the 06z GFS with 60 to 75mph gusts being possible from the morning into the late afternoon. Other places across the West look to see severe gales as well. Heavy rain with the high tides and swell heights puts places under more risks of flooding.

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Can anyone is going to make it a red alert with the map is just look like a small craft, gale, storm or hurricane warning flags on the marine signal flags for this weekend? Stay away from the beaches could cause swell heights, due to the safety from the storm surges.

And I went out to a riding on the bike from the promenade, due to a strong winds are very difficult to ride on the bike at 30-40mph winds.

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Some huge tides on western coasts on sat and sun coinciding with gales and accompanying swell ,could well be severe damage to areas recovering from storms at beginning of month , it's just relentless !....

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ECM rolling out with a sub 950mb storm centre poised to slam into the UK. 

 

Very tight gradient. 

post-9615-0-67694900-1391018748_thumb.gi

 

ECM a bit further north with the centre position than the GFS @ 72hrs, ECM & UKMO in good agreement. 

 

post-9615-0-89358200-1391019027_thumb.gipost-9615-0-24342100-1391019008_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-46903900-1391019678_thumb.gi

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Doesn't look to be too bad for areas away from the midlands northwards.

 

No different to what we had at the end of last week, with 50-60mph gusts on coasts and 35-45mph inland.

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Here we go again

 

https://twitter.com/MeteoGib/status/428600578537979904/photo/1

 

Recent neap tides had spared the coast, as once again massive waves were rolling in

Damage to the sea wall and car park, at Westwood Ho!

They are using heavy machinery to rebuild the pebble ridge

 

Going in for another round... when the existing damage is not yet repaired

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Is there even much point fixing the damage yet? Looking at the models it's just a stream of Atlantic lows..

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The Spring tide on Saturday is marked to be 2.5m metres at Poole quay in my tide book, making it the second highest tide within a year, lucky the low is progged to be where it is otherwise there would be a few issues here.

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Is there even much point fixing the damage yet? Looking at the models it's just a stream of Atlantic lows..

Agreed , it could be like raking leaves on a windy day - It sounds as though big boulders are really needed! (isn't that why why sand is put into bags at a smaller scale?)

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Going through the GFS take a look at some of these monsters... Southern England would vanish! 

 

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I just went on to the link below and they have Exeter as getting 77MPH gusts next Saturday 8th February, if that happens, it would be the worst storm to hit here in years, probably since the burns day storm!

 

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/v2/weather.aspx?q=EXT&day=20

 

God knows what it would be like in Cornwall as Exeter usually doesn't get the strongest winds due to the moors I guess to our west....

 

Next week is certainly one to watch.

 

I love all these storms, obviously not even anyone gets hurt but if it's not going to snow i'd rather it be stormy.

 

Edit:  On further inspection it actually says 99MPH with sustained winds of 50MPH for next Friday here in Exeter, is this for real....I checked the wind speeds for tomorrow and Saturday they appear what other websites are saying so I don't think they are over exaggerating?

 

Jesus christ, if it did happen this would be the worst storm to effect the southern UK in years, maybe worse than Burns Day storm or the great storm of 1987, I'm keeping my eyes and ears pealed on this one, very worrying....

 

It says Plymouth next Friday can expect 60MPH sustained winds and 125MPH gusts....... the south west/south coast would be obliterated

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I just went on to the link below and they have Exeter as getting 77MPH gusts next Saturday 8th February, if that happens, it would be the worst storm to hit here in years, probably since the burns day storm!

 

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/v2/weather.aspx?q=EXT&day=20

 

God knows what it would be like in Cornwall as Exeter usually doesn't get the strongest winds due to the moors I guess to our west....

 

Next week is certainly one to watch.

 

I love all these storms, obviously not even anyone gets hurt but if it's not going to snow i'd rather it be stormy.

 

Edit:  On further inspection it actually says 99MPH with sustained winds of 50MPH for next Friday here in Exeter, is this for real....I checked the wind speeds for tomorrow and Saturday they appear what other websites are saying so I don't think they are over exaggerating?

 

Jesus christ, if it did happen this would be the worst storm to effect the southern UK in years, maybe worse than Burns Day storm or the great storm of 1987, I'm keeping my eyes and ears pealed on this one, very worrying....

 

It says Plymouth next Friday can expect 60MPH sustained winds and 125MPH gusts....... the south west/south coast would be obliterated

 

I wouldn't trust that website doesn't really make any sense why the wind speeds are so high. Sure the current models show some storms but nothing that severe so I think it's just overdone the wind speeds. It doesn't make any sense why somewhere would have 60mph mean speeds with gusts up to twice that speed maybe if it was on really high ground it could be possible. Plus these events are over a week away things will change a lot between then, with the recent storms the models struggled to get the correct positioning and wind speeds until 48 hours before the event.

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I wouldn't trust that website doesn't really make any sense why the wind speeds are so high. Sure the current models show some storms but nothing that severe so I think it's just overdone the wind speeds. It doesn't make any sense why somewhere would have 60mph mean speeds with gusts up to twice that speed maybe if it was on really high ground it could be possible. Plus these events are over a week away things will change a lot between then, with the recent storms the models struggled to get the correct positioning and wind speeds until 48 hours before the event.

 

 

Thankyou....I did think that when I read that considering the highes wind speed reported at Exeter Airport was 85MPH during the Burns Day storm....If this was a distinct posibilty it would be all over the news but I am keeping an eye on this one as they must get their information from somewhere?

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the 7th has caught my eye as well.. It is a week tomorrow and I can't really see it being as bad as this but one to watch..

 

Models currently updating so cant really see but check out this chart for 3pm tomorrow... Just look at those isobars on the southern flank in the Atlantic WOW Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Real tight pressure gradient on the GFS 12z, storm force winds affecting much of Ireland and the western mainland between S Scotland and SW Wales, wouldn't like to be out in the Irish Sea come Saturday!

 

post-9615-0-05691600-1391098114_thumb.gi Mean speeds in km/h. 90-95km/h = 56-59mph.

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Real tight pressure gradient on the GFS 12z, storm force winds affecting much of Ireland and the western mainland between S Scotland and SW Wales, wouldn't like to be out in the Irish Sea come Saturday!

 

Posted Imagegfsss.gif Mean speeds in km/h. 90-95km/h = 56-59mph.

Wow ... so this is upgrading!?

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