Forecasting the big game: 1967 vs. 2014

[knocker]

This is worth a read.

 

 

Researchers are making sure that the improvements are going to continue. Here are a few new developments by NCAR and their collaborators at universities and government labs into advancing both short- and long-term forecasts:

• Scientists from around the world are combing through findings from a 2011 Indian Ocean field project, DYNAMO, that examined the key factors that influence the onset of an atmospheric event known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation on weather events around much of the globe. The oscillation, for example, can set off atmospheric waves that trigger storms in the United States more than a week later while affecting weather patterns for 1-3 months.
   
• Scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy (DOE) have developed a promising new tool, the Model for Prediction Across Scales, which enables researchers to run computer simulations of the entire globe while zooming in on specific geographic regions. In recent tests, MPAS successfully depicted a cluster of severe Midwest thunderstorms more than four days out, and tropical cyclones in the Pacific up to six days in advance.
   
• A broad group of researchers at NCAR, government labs, and universities have launched a three-year, national project to develop 36-hours, fine-scale forecasts of incoming energy from the Sun over specific sites. While the project, funded primarily by the DOE, is designed to help utilities anticipate solar energy output, it also offers the promise of improving shorter-term predictions of cloud cover.
   
• Scientists have associated a pattern of high- and low-pressure systems in the upper atmosphere with a heightened likelihood of the onset of major heat waves in the United States 15-20 days later. The upper-atmosphere pattern is also being analyzed for potentially providing a 15-20 day advance signal of an elevated likelihood of other types of weather events, such as major storms and flooding.

 

 

http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10998/forecasting-big-game-1967-vs-2014

Edited January 28, 2014 by knocker