scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14

[mistyqueen]

It has actually stopped raining now and the wind has dropped too. As for snaw........nah...not this year! Hellish weekend ahead too. Nuthin' fur it but tae corrie doon by the fire wi' a bottle o' red. And some chocolate. And some crisps. 

[SW Saltire]

We've certainly had a few wintry late winters/early springs, March 2006 for example was exceptionally snowy for Aberdeenshire and contained quite an impressive breakdown snowfall on the 12th, and of course last winter (how much was there with you then? Arran and much of the southwest got buried). I wouldn't be expecting any 2009/10 levels of coldcertainly but there's still a fair bit of time left, and the strat could potentially have an immediate feedback (very hit and miss of course but it did happen in late January 2009 and although we didn't directly benefit as much as we would've liked we were quite unlucky to miss out then). As long as we get a decent chunk of the vortex into Eurasia (ideally a Scandi trough setup) there will be some deep cold to be tapped into, but it certainly would've been better a month or two ago.

I'm not denying we can't get cold March months. What I'm saying is to produce the sunshine snow showers set up you then really do need 'deep cold' uppers. I remember around the 10th of March 2013. Maybe it's due to my more Southerly location but we had -10 or so upper temperatures and the snow didn't lie properly and in the sun it still melted. So we can't achieve December 2010 cold or anywhere near that in MarchCatchmydrift has caught my drift exactly, what I am saying.Our best chance is the end of March 2013 slider scenario. No deep cold needed, just a slight drift of the continent ahead of the precipitation. The Sun has less of an effect. Arran did get buckets of snow, I got around a foot of lying snow and drifts in excess of 6 feet with roads blocked etc. So it can happen but it's rare. I'd also point out the snow didn't settle from 9am to around 4pm even with 6 inches of lying snow from the night and early morning before. Why? Due to the sun taking the temperature up. So if that had occurred now I wonder how much more snow I could have got. Also, despite cold uppers the snow melted everyday, progressively more quickly each day die to less mass of snow on the ground. The sun is simply a different beast after the equinox when compared to January and December.This is if we get the ideal set-up. The jigsaw most likely won't fit perfectly and we have to enjoy Spring and Summer and next Autumn pray for a better winter. So don't lose all faith but we are running rapidly out of time although if your in Inverness you have maybe an extra week or two compared to me. Frankly, I'd take a UK high, even pumping in mild weather. As long as it was dry, sunny and we might even get a frost in that set-up! Edited January 31, 2014 by SW Saltire

[101_North]

In Cork waiting on flight home. Wild outside with thunder and lightning, driving rain, gales! Can't wait... 

[Hairy Celt]

In Cork waiting on flight home. Wild outside with thunder and lightning, driving rain, gales! Can't wait... 

 

Maybe the pilot will bottle it, eh?

[Northernlights]

Sheesh. Send it on this way when you're done. Fack all here, I reckon the snow line's about 500m on the local hills, seems quite a clean line, as Tempestwatch said earlier.

Nothing here today either just very windy and dust blowing off the farm road as vehicles come in.  Maximum temperature of 3c. And just a few miles to the south above 2000 feet there are record amounts of snow completely burying a funicular railway.

.

Wonder what some of the southern  UK  regional discussions would say if they knew that one of the worries of the farming community on the Southern side of the Moray Firth is drought starting early in the spring as we have had a winter of constant southerly winds putting us in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms with no N winds to bring us any  significant snowfall or even rain.

 

 These global extreme weather patterns are observable even on a local level within the UK and especially so in the last few months. 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Northernlights

[SW Saltire]

Nothing here today either just very windy and dust blowing off the farm road as vehicles come in.  Maximum temperature of 3c.  Wonder what some of the southern  UK  regional discussions would say if they knew that one of the worries of the farming community on the Southern side of the Moray Firth is drought starting early in the spring as we have had a winter of constant southerly winds putting us in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms with no N winds to bring us any  sinificant snowfall or even rain. These global extreme weather patterns are observable even on a local level within the UK and especially so in the last few months.

That is just unbelievable. Never mind Somerset, here we have had rain 27/31 days this January. The river has broken it's banks 4 times. It's just crazy the differences.If the pressure rise from the south occurs then the jet stream will move further north meaning the lows will reach you so no need to worry Catchmydrift- I won't bet against 'widespread lowland falling snow' at some point if the current charts verify an are not modified but I doubt it would be anything other than very transient away from Southern uplands, border hills, NW Highlands, Cairngorms etc. We need a pattern change and quickly!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not denying we can't get cold March months. What I'm saying is to produce the sunshine snow showers set up you then really do need 'deep cold' uppers. I remember around the 10th of March 2013. Maybe it's due to my more Southerly location but we had -10 or so upper temperatures and the snow didn't

lie properly and in the sun it still melted. So we can't achieve December 2010 cold or anywhere near that in March

Catchmydrift has caught my drift exactly, what I am saying.

Our best chance is the end of March 2013 slider scenario. No deep cold needed, just a slight drift of the continent ahead of the precipitation. The Sun has less of an effect. Arran did get buckets of snow, I got around a foot of lying snow and drifts in excess of 6 feet with roads blocked etc. So it can happen but it's rare. I'd also point out the snow didn't settle from 9am to around 4pm even with 6 inches of lying snow from the night and early morning before. Why? Due to the sun taking the temperature up. So if that had occurred now I wonder how much more snow I could have got. Also, despite cold uppers the snow melted everyday, progressively more quickly each day die to less mass of snow on the ground. The sun is simply a different beast after the equinox when compared to January and December.

This is if we get the ideal set-up. The jigsaw most likely won't fit perfectly and we have to enjoy Spring and Summer and next Autumn pray for a better winter. So don't lose all faith but we are running rapidly out of time although if your in Inverness you have maybe an extra week or two compared to me. Frankly, I'd take a UK high, even pumping in mild weather. As long as it was dry, sunny and we might even get a frost in that set-up!

 

Aye, I agree with that to be honest, deep cold is very rare past the end of February - I mean it's pretty rare for lowland Scotland anyway but almost non-existent into March. I'd be happy with just a decent snow event to be honest - we almost always get one even if we have to wait until March (in 2011/12 it was actually April here) to get one. At some point, some kind of setup, even if transient, will materialise and deliver the goods (i.e. 2+ inches) but it is frustrated how far we've been from that up to this point, so much so that this is about as 'wintry' as its been other than the 24 hour northerly in early December.

[Neiller22]

Heavy snow being reported in western ireland to low levels! Good sign for u guys when front hits you. Good luck

[November13]

This could get interesting tonight.Should know by midnight what we are in for.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The big blob of precipitation looks pretty heavy if you ask me. Bring on the snow!

[Neiller22]

Snow being reported in many parts of ireland. Hasn't Reached me yet though!

[SW Saltire]

Aye, I agree with that to be honest, deep cold is very rare past the end of February - I mean it's pretty rare for lowland Scotland anyway but almost non-existent into March. I'd be happy with just a decent snow event to be honest - we almost always get one even if we have to wait until March (in 2011/12 it was actually April here) to get one. At some point, some kind of setup, even if transient, will materialise and deliver the goods (i.e. 2+ inches) but it is frustrated how far we've been from that up to this point, so much so that this is about as 'wintry' as its been other than the 24 hour northerly in early December.

Depends what lowland is really. I mean guaranteed we get these 150m above snow events numerous times so that means I'll get sleet perhaps falling snow in the heavier bursts (like today) but nothing like 2 inches + as you describe as a decent covering. Last winter had about 10 events where it snowed left a decent covering and then rain an washed all away. However, this winter nothing. Glasgow may get some snow tonight but apart from that I doubt it will get a 2 inch plus covering. That bit of height is so important though, they were sledging in Sanquhar today with between 5-10cm of snow.... Safe to say I'm wanting to see the back of this winter. Yes, I don't doubt those at 200m+ could still see a decent snow event but for those of us not so lucky then no current weather charts show low level snow that will deliver 2 inches+ and that takes us to mid February.The towel has been thrown, it's in mid-air and falling rapidly... I wonder how long until it hits the canvas

[Allyw12]

Hmmm not sure we'll see Snow, the temp is still 2.9 here

Edited January 31, 2014 by Allyw12

[101_North]

Edinburgh Airport still showing 5c. Game over LOL 

[edo]

Hmmm not sure we'll see Snow, the temp is still 2.9 here

I'm not hopeful ally but last year the temp was similar and dropped just as front arrived...was sleety and wet then temp dropped to 1 and the heavy precipitation led to excellent rain to snow and unfortunately back to rain the next day event....we deserve a break but who knows...encouraging from Eire be interesting to know temps there before front hit

[BleakMidwinter]

Temp here's risen from 2.1 to 3.5 since about 8pm, acc'g to the KB weather station…

[Ross B]

Just on the way out of Glasgow and its  pouring with rain at 4.5c. Hopeful for a bit of snow tonight but who knows  

[edo]

Hmm actually mixed reports in Ireland but some saying turned very quickly from rain to lying snow at 65m asl others saying just rain

[damianslaw]

We did well today at a modest 120m. Before the front arrived temps were yo-yoing between 3 and 4 degrees, but when it hit us, light rain quickly turned to very heavy wet snow thanks to evaporative cooling. There was a good 3-4 hours of heavy wet snow which quickly settled to leave a slushy 2-3cms cover. Later this afternoon the snow turned back to rain.. but temps struggled to get much above 3 degrees.

 

In these set ups it very much depends on the intensity of the precipitation, the heavier the better as this aids evaporative cooling.

 

Dewpoints will be favourable for fairly low level snow as the night wears on and more so tomorrow morning - so don't be surprised if you go to bed and its raining to wake up to a white blanket.

[damianslaw]

Depends what lowland is really. I mean guaranteed we get these 150m above snow events numerous times so that means I'll get sleet perhaps falling snow in the heavier bursts (like today) but nothing like 2 inches + as you describe as a decent covering. Last winter had about 10 events where it snowed left a decent covering and then rain an washed all away. However, this winter nothing. Glasgow may get some snow tonight but apart from that I doubt it will get a 2 inch plus covering. That bit of height is so important though, they were sledging in Sanquhar today with between 5-10cm of snow.... Safe to say I'm wanting to see the back of this winter. Yes, I don't doubt those at 200m+ could still see a decent snow event but for those of us not so lucky then no current weather charts show low level snow that will deliver 2 inches+ and that takes us to mid February.The towel has been thrown, it's in mid-air and falling rapidly... I wonder how long until it hits the canvas

 

Being in Scotland especially you should never throw the towel in until late April I say if you are looking for snow. There have been numerous northerly blasts in yesteryear during March and April which have packed a very wintry snowy punch for Scotland. Indeed northerlies are much more likely in March and April than in the winter.

 

Its a foolish man who throws the towel in on prospects of snow on the 31 January.. things can change in a flash.. I won't name the occasions when a southerly warm surge in March and April has quickly turned into a northerly arctic plunge.

 

Someone mentioned 31 March 2012 when some parts of Scotland were buried in 2ft of snow.. on the back of a 6 weeks of atlantic mild fest..

Edited January 31, 2014 by damianslaw

[November13]

Seems anywhere above 300ft in Eire are getting snow.The air is colder the further east we are so there are prospects for Scotland.

Light drizzle here but its not part of the front coming in.Its just residuals.

[LomondSnowstorm]

We did well today at a modest 120m. Before the front arrived temps were yo-yoing between 3 and 4 degrees, but when it hit us, light rain quickly turned to very heavy wet snow thanks to evaporative cooling. There was a good 3-4 hours of heavy wet snow which quickly settled to leave a slushy 2-3cms cover. Later this afternoon the snow turned back to rain.. but temps struggled to get much above 3 degrees.

 

In these set ups it very much depends on the intensity of the precipitation, the heavier the better as this aids evaporative cooling.

 

Dewpoints will be favourable for fairly low level snow as the night wears on and more so tomorrow morning - so don't be surprised if you go to bed and its raining to wake up to a white blanket.

 

Quite - look at the freezing levels by tomorrow morning - widely 300-400m:

That cold air is currently over in Western Ireland:

 

Your location isn't amazing for snow I'm guessing SW Saltire, but at only 50m asl my village of Freuchie has had at least 4 inches of snow in every winter bar 2011/12 and 2007/08, as far back as I can remember. It's usually transient and gets washed away within a few days but that's basically my benchmark for a 'decent' winter. Last winter we got that by the tail end of January from days on end of SErly winds, although that it was only 4 inches was disappointing given it snowed pretty much every day for a fortnight there, in 2010/11 it was obviously the November/December event that stood out for well over a foot of snow although we had 6 inches again on the 21st December and then another 9 inches on the 7th/8th January from an innocuous seeming cold westerly which was so borderline it mostly produced rain further west, in 2009/10 we had a gradual build up to over a foot but with two 6/7 inch snowfalls on the 23rd and 27th December, February 2009 was a weird one because it came from another innocuous seeming warm front at the back end of a thoroughly frustrating cold spell, February 2007 was a 24 hour easterly which had some pretty potent showers (in an otherwise very poor winter for snow), March 2006 was from the big snowfall on the 12th when we got 7 inches of snow, February/March 2005 had the 1st March and the 23rd February, both easterlies although the former was a closed circulation which formed in a cold slack trough. Anyway, the gist of it is that, at least for my location, we usually have at least one decent snowfall per winter. Half of those ones were easterlies which probably got nowhere near affecting Dumfries but there must've been a few NWerlies which didn't deliver for us but did for the west (early March 2008 rings a bell for some reason), and a good number of them were mid February or later.

Anyway, my point is, move to Freuchie - more snow and no altitude sickness 

Edited January 31, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[SW Saltire]

Being in Scotland especially you should never throw the towel in until late April I say if you are looking for snow. There have been numerous northerly blasts in yesteryear during March and April which have packed a very wintry snowy punch for Scotland. Indeed northerlies are much more likely in March and April than in the winter. Its a foolish man who throws the towel in on prospects of snow on the 31 January.. things can change in a flash.. I won't name the occasions when a southerly warm surge in March and April has quickly turned into a northerly arctic plunge. Someone mentioned 31 March 2012 when some parts of Scotland were buried in 2ft of snow.. on the back of a 6 weeks of atlantic mild fest..

I won't give up don't worry but my thoughts may meander towards a 50/50 ie looking for March 2012/April 2011 or for a March 2013 re-run. I have the same climate practically as you. Slightly cooler but affected by the Solway Firth. On a very clear day I can see the hills at the northern periphery of the Lake District. In a wider context I would agree, If I lived say Lanark or When I move back to Stirling in two weeks then it's a different kettle of fish. Purely from IMBYism Northerlies never deliver snow (cold and sunny and frosty) and Easterlies are not as cold and are awful. We rely on a northerly having a NNW element of a very cold NW wind (they don't have that cold uppers though) or the holy grail: the slider which brought do much snow last march, 94,95 and I'm sure circa late nineties. (I obviously never experienced this). My point is my location needs a cold spell in order to get that rogue snow shower in order to get snow, or, embedded cold with an Atlantic front approaching. So, winter isn't over for Elgin, Aberdeen, Inverness, Dundee, Fife, Kelso but for more western area that require a longer deeper cold for lying snow then I think it looks unlikely. You only have to look at the MOD to see the Horrendous output. I for one am not impressed and do not need more rain! I'll send it to Northernlights

[SW Saltire]

Quite - look at the freezing levels by tomorrow morning - widely 300-400m:

That cold air is currently over in Western Ireland:

Your location isn't amazing for snow I'm guessing SW Saltire, but at only 50m asl my village of Freuchie has had at least 4 inches of snow in every winter bar 2011/12 and 2007/08, as far back as I can remember. It's usually transient and gets washed away within a few days but that's basically my benchmark for a 'decent' winter. Last winter we got that by the tail end of January from days on end of SErly winds, although that it was only 4 inches was disappointing given it snowed pretty much every day for a fortnight there, in 2010/11 it was obviously the November/December event that stood out for well over a foot of snow although we had 6 inches again on the 21st December and then another 9 inches on the 7th/8th January from an innocuous seeming cold westerly which was so borderline it mostly produced rain further west, in 2009/10 we had a gradual build up to over a foot but with two 6/7 inch snowfalls on the 23rd and 27th December, February 2009 was a weird one because it came from another innocuous seeming warm front at the back end of a thoroughly frustrating cold spell, February 2007 was a 24 hour easterly which had some pretty potent showers (in an otherwise very poor winter for snow), March 2006 was from the big snowfall on the 12th when we got 7 inches of snow, February/March 2005 had the 1st March and the 23rd February, both easterlies although the former was a closed circulation which formed in a cold slack trough. Anyway, the gist of it is that, at least for my location, we usually have at least one decent snowfall per winter. Half of those ones were easterlies which probably got nowhere near affecting Dumfries but there must've been a few NWerlies which didn't deliver for us but did for the west (early March 2008 rings a bell for some reason), and a good number of them were mid February or later.

Anyway, my point is, move to Freuchie - more snow and no altitude sickness

Thanks for sharing your local insight

Ok, so as far back as I can remember... 2003-05 very little snow from what I remember, I doubt any of those years reached a four inch covering at any point.

2006 - nope, 2007 - no snow at all I think, 2008 - cold second half but no snow apart from a covering in early February so barely 1 inch deep. 2009- cold but many showers frustratingly missed us yet again, 2 inches was our max depth. (I hated 2008-09 and 2009-10 here as they were so close but so useless on the snow front) 2010-11 - incredibly cold. Very little snow during December and November. Had a 2 inch covering that slowly diminished until a very heavy shower came and pushed snow cover to 10cm so YES. 2011-12 - nope although we got an incredibly heavy hail shower in late February or early March. It left a 2 inch covering everywhere. I've never experienced anything like it, it lasted 3 hours and was very localised (only about 4 miles wide) but alas that doesn't count as snow, 2012-13 definately quite a few transient 5-10 cm falls, also had a very potent NW flow that left a good covering and obviously March gave 12 inches so YES, 13-14 looking unlikely - so far one incredibly small snowfall in December before it rained.

So in summary in the last 11 winters 2 have met your criteria for a 'good' winter. A further 2 got half that figure.

Like I say my location is poor for snow and much better for warmth (achieved 29.7c in July this year, rarely doesn't get at least 25c in summer)

I realise my location isn't representative of most of Scotland but a significant part of the country doesn't have much altitude. At least most of the above winters delivered at least -5 (almost all) -10 on 4 of those 11 winters and December 2010 gave me -16. Whereas, this winter..... Wait for

it....... -2 WOW and the next lowest minimum -0.5 = truly horrendous almost unprecedented.

So save to say it's been incredibly poor, no sun at all, I have had literally 6 air frosts which is atrocious (two of those in the last 3 days)

Edited February 1, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Neiller22]

Snowing heavy in east Northern Ireland now. Has been last hr. I'm bout 90+ metres ASL