scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14

[GraemeB]

Well - my pessimism is being challenged by what looks to be coming on Tuesday night....

 

I will however, curtail my excitement until I see the white stuff !

[mistyqueen]

Well slap my face....it's sunny! Oh no, wait....it's raining...no, wait, it's........ more of the usual again today then! Well, we'll see what the week brings. Wind certainly, but white stuff? I'd say, nah, more than likely to be rain and sleet here, but some of you lucky peeps may get enough to go and play in!

[mistyqueen]

I check XC on a daily basis but don't find that Lusa's forecast is all that accurate. It's a bit hit and miss....but then isn't all weather forecasting like that sometime?

[101_North]

Folks, having never been - is there a sledging hill at Glenshee? Got a lodge in Blairgowrie next weekend and thought I might run the kids up to Glenshee as it's not far. Cheers

[Norrance]

Folks, having never been - is there a sledging hill at Glenshee? Got a lodge in Blairgowrie next weekend and thought I might run the kids up to Glenshee as it's not far. Cheers

If they are small you can sledge by the car park. On busy days there will be ski beginners too though. Depending on snow line lots of places in the area to sledge. Could be well down the valley this week as cooler temps forecast. Milder here today with temps topping 7C. After sunny ints shower clouds coming in from the West now.

[Harve]

If you suffer from jealousy then you'll look like this,  if you click this (keep scrolling down there are quite a few photos): http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/02/05/toronto-weather-snow-photos_n_4732139.html

Except if you're high enough, we have several times more snow than in any of those pictures, in our own country!

- the top of a platter lift in Glenshee. The tow should be several metres above the ground.

[spindrift1980]

As it happens, I was walking in the (very snowy) hills above Spittal of Glenshee on Friday.  Having been unable to resist a rare day of benign weather forecast for Friday, I took the day off work and was rewarded with a superb day.  The snow line was generally about 450 - 500m.  I didn't drive as far up as the ski centre, where the summit of the road is 665m.  The first photo is at 650m, climbing to just over 800m at the summit of Ben Earb by the third photo.

 

[spindrift1980]

Some nice rime build-ups on fenceposts too:

 

[November13]

Just back from days skiing Glenshee,windy,white out,queues...what's not to love about Scottish skiing lol.Seriously though if it hadn,t been for the buried tows it would have been great conditions.They tried to dig it Glas Maol poma until 2pm and then quit.Must be 15 ft of snow in places.It was sleety at the car park snow above 2100ft.

Edited February 9, 2014 by November13

[Ravelin]

Just back from days skiing Glenshee,windy,white out,queues...what's not to love about Scottish skiing lol.Seriously though if it hadn,t been for the buried tows it would have been great conditions.They tried to dig it Glas Maol poma until 2pm and then quit.Must be 15 ft of snow in places.It was sleety at the car park snow above 2100ft.

I was there too with the oldest lad. Decent days skiing but I've had better. Very busy as expected and not the easiest skiing with the strong wind and often horizontal snow. Plenty of snow there, especially the higher you go but the snow level isn't really much lower than the carparks and even there it was pretty soft.

[BurntFishTrousers]

I'm off to Senegal end of next week. Will I get snow? 

[November13]

Yes the lower parts of Glenshee are good but not awesome.Think west is best this winter.That could all change on Tuesday looks to be another foot of snow incoming.

[Buriedundersnow]

snow showing across most of the models that show the hatching for snow over the next wee while

 

GFS 0.5 Tuesday snow

 

 

then Thursday

 

 

NASA model but still 0z the 12z will be out later heres tuesday

 

 

and Thursday

 

 

normal GFS

 

 

and the NMM for Tuesday and Wednesday

 

 

watch this it will still end up being rain

Edited February 9, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

Nevis Range â€@TheNevisRange 2h

When I grow up I want to drive the groomer at #nevisrange - filmed today on the Goose SO MUCH SNOW

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H8kMJ81zsY#t=29

 

rainfall totals for the next five days lets hope its mostly snow

 

 

windy Wilson thinks we may see snow

 

Windy Wilson â€@WindyWilson88 3h

SNOW ALERT - Windy says these 4 charts tell me that there's a 70-80% chance of SNOW this Tuesday #inwindywetrust #pow pic.twitter.com/QMnvLkTzul

 

 

heres how the BBC see tuesday it looks a little fragmented

 

 

showers following from the west though and should be wintry

Edited February 9, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

first I have noticed this on meteociel press play and you can see our snowy front working through on Tuesday then another finger of snow working in later

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=14

[aggy]

If only I wasn't such a pessimist ha here's hoping I doubt it will lie here it will just rain but always good to know there is snow about

[LomondSnowstorm]

I've just realised that the precip type charts on the EURO4 are only three hourly and there's only charts available for 6 hour intervals. It looks therefore like most of the frontal stuff is through by 9am, leaving only fragmented stuff north and east of the central belt:

 

Before the front hits we have some very borderline 950s, skirting the right side of them for the western central belt but somewhat less so further east (although very fine margins):

The most intruiging thing for me though is what comes out of Ireland later on. The 950s by 9am suggest a mostly hill snow with sleet or wet snow with temperatures around 2-3C at low levels:

 

 

Tuesday afternoon and evening though, if it comes off as signalled here, is perhaps the best opportunity for widespread lowland snowfall so far this winter:

Air temperatures dipping very quickly, precipitation quite heavy and coming in the form of troughing (positioning very much still to be determined) and the 528 line all the while has quitely sneaked off into the Channel:

 

Been rather busy lately (well, as ever) but, while the basic pattern hasn't realy shifted, we do have a window of opportunity where the cold flowing out of Northeastern Canada might actually hit us in a meaningful way. Given how Pm or rPm airmasses have been utterly dominant so far this winter (exhibit A, the 3.5m of snow currently lying at Glencoe Ski centre caused by constant precipitation and uppers held consistently below 0C for a very long time) it's slightly surprised me that we haven't seen more decent opportunities from the west, but here we are anyway.
My LRF is, quite obviously, bust, with the basic failing of almost all winter forecasts being a, perhaps slightly overoptimistic, belief that the vortex would wane significantly as the winter went on and some proper high latitude blocking would set in. With 18 days of meteorological winter left it certainly doesn't look like coming off as planned, although the CFS is once again hinting at a cold start to Spring, something which has been a major theme of the last two years. For now though, anything which slows the jet and stops the rain (or rather relocates it to the arid plains of Moray!) would be welcome.

[PiggiePalace]

Bad day elsewhere......,

 

 

,,Going to bed now..sorry weather rdiends...

xxxxx

[lorenzo]

00z on euro4 sees the latest soaking pass through and back edge a flurry of snow showers, similar pattern to last week where naff all was delivered other than the odd blob of sleet within very heavy rain.

 

Let's hope this one dials in and delivers some of the white stuff for many more folks, can see some more ski lifts getting buried !

 

 

Latest on our ever lasting Atlantic conveyor belt on ECM 72 sees this low tracking further North than projected over the weekend.

 

C'mon February get yer finger oot and serve us some real cold !!

[Cheggers]

I'm off to Senegal end of next week. Will I get snow? 

More chance than here at present I feel.

[Ravelin]

Decent morning here so far with the usual cool, but not cold, theme. Dry though and I can actually see hazy patches of blue sky through a thinning cloud cover.

 

Wife mentioned this morning that according to the BBC weather forecast that we're due snow. I expressed my doubts but she insisted that it looked like covering all of Aberdeenshire "right out to the coast". We'll see, but it's been a poor winter when it's her saying it's going to snow and me being the skeptical one.

 

At least I got a bit of a snow fix yesterday at Glenshee despite being glad to retire back to the car around 3:15pm. It was fun at times, but by mid afternoon it was becoming just too wild. In fact coming down the Sunnyside green we ground to a halt at one point due to the strength of the wind. Winter, please redeem yourself by giving us a 2 day dumping of powder snow followed by an extended cold, calm, high pressure period. After all the rain and gales we've had to endure surely that isn't asking too much is it?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Here's the text forecast from the Met-O for my area, interestingly there is one important word missing from it:  Can you tell what the missing word is?

Yes, does appear that it's a binary choice between cold rain and deep powder snow

[strathearn snow]

Met office outlook is suggesting quite wintry weather! Fingers crossed for some decent snow.

[101_North]

Latest EURO4 looking, not surprisingly, like a non event here.    

[Northernlights]

Wintry looking showers all round  us on the horizon looking good in the stronger late winter light, currently 4.7c.