scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14

[edo]

stelvio pass rivaling the scottish hills

 

http://www.solda2000.com/webstelvioen.htm 

[edo]

showers coming off the east now and some showing as sleety/wintry in aberdeenshire on raintoday

[Northernlights]

A bit chilly here today but ground drying up again.Currently  2c. Looking at the seven day forecast temperature on here for my postcode  there is not much of a rise from current levels with snow falling about 500 feet up the hill from me on most days so the hills are going to get another big top up.

 

 The despondancy in the model thread obviously comes from the fact that  it will be milder  than this in South of England  whereas we seem to keep average winter conditions up here in the north though not specially cold.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I was expecting a drop in intensity across the central belt but this chart is ridiculous!

Would be utterly incredible if we missed out on a big frontal snowfall because it was too dry in this of all winters!

Worth watching for a little feature moving into Fife/Tayside/Lothians tomorrow morning, could finally bring some lying snow to low ground:

Surface temperatures ahead of this are definitely good enough for snow to lie:

Interesting to see how this one pans out, it is just localised but it will be a good test of the euro4's ability to pick up on North Sea convection.

Saturday morning also continues to hold a huge amount of interest, with some really quite deep cold coming back in at us from the southwest:

Rain turning to snow from the southwest:

Utterly superb daytime maxima, lower than those forecast for tomorrow before the 'breakdown'

ECM tries valiantly to keep the easterly dream alive in FI:

Anyway, nothing mild in the foreseeable still, lots more wind and rain after our wintry interlude but also significantly more hill snow - that's not going to go away for a long while yet.

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

As usual with the wind in the SE it's miserable. There may be -8c 850s overhead but down here on the coast that translates to +4c, cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle.

[Ravelin]

Wait for it...wait for it...don't get too excited when I tell you this.....but I actually drove through a "wintry shower" on the way to work earlier. OK so it was about 2 minutes of heavy, wet looking, graupel but the way this winters been so far that's a "major incident".

 

Other than that excitement it's a cool (2-3C) under very grey skies but not feeling that cold as there's virtually no wind. Thankfully it's stopped raining as according to the wife the river Don at the edge of our estate was flooding well up over the fields yesterday. Too dark for me to see the extent when I got home last night but it's pretty much back in it's normal channel this morning.

 

Was toying with heading up to Glenshee skiing this weekend, most probably Sunday, but not sure if it will be much fun. The winds as currently forecast might make it a little challenging. What and to whom do I need to sacrifice to ensure a cold, calm, blue-sky day on Sunday?  

[mardatha]

I wondered why ye'd all gone quiet. You flitted without telling me!

Can I go totally OT for one minute please - I have an American penpal with a 12 yr old son who wants to know more about Scotland and his Scottish roots. She wants me to give her websites that would be educational but not too heavy. Any ideas?  Can PM if that's less disruptive for the forum.

Edited January 30, 2014 by mardatha

[November13]

Everyone is talking about Friday. However the cold bites back on Saturday and there is more potential for snow on Saturday than Friday. Fingers crossed!

[Ravelin]

Well it's officially been a very wet January http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25944823 and the month isn't even finished yet.

 

Of course that doesn't surprise me in the least since I'm in one of the darker blue areas on the map

 

.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Ravelin

[snow1975]

Light rain in Leven at 10am. Light showers of snowpellets here and up hill at 200masl, 11am-12pm. 1-2mm size, conical, falling fae Stratocumulus. Wind 130deg, 2 metre speed, 10mph. Dry-bulb 3C, wet-bulb 1.3C, dewpoint -2C.

Edited January 30, 2014 by snow1975

[LomondSnowstorm]

Incredible contrast between the Lothians and the Cairngorms in the next 48 hours - over a foot of fresh snow for the ski resorts, bone dry in Edinburgh:

NMM suggests a reasonable snow risk for many tomorrow afternoon including the western central belt and bits of Fife:

 

As N13 says though Saturday holds a lot of interest. NMM and the Euro4 rather different on this though - the Euro4 has it dry by 6am while the NMM brings in some heavy snow:

 compared to

I generally tend to back the NMM for precipitation modelling, or at least I did over the NAE, especially because it has been very consistent in its modelling, and it would be much better as the precip. hits at pretty much the optimum time for snow. Accumulations map for the NMM is quite promising really, upwards of an inch for a big chunk of central Scotland, 10-15cm for upland D+G and that massive black hole sitting over the Cairngorms:

Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

My aunt in Birmingham is reporting some snow down her way, not lying but apparently fairly heavy. The wind is a bit too far south of east to really drive showers inland this side of the Forth but at least further north is seeing some falling snow, albeit not exactly heavy.

[blitzen]

I wondered why ye'd all gone quiet. You flitted without telling me!

Can I go totally OT for one minute please - I have an American penpal with a 12 yr old son who wants to know more about Scotland and his Scottish roots. She wants me to give her websites that would be educational but not too heavy. Any ideas?  Can PM if that's less disruptive for the forum.

 

Considering the boy's age Mardatha, perhaps this would be enough to give him the basics and some interesting facts?  If this is too basic, then you could always suggest the many Scottish Heritage sights.

 

http://projectbritain.com/britain/scotland.htm

 

 

 

If he wishes to trace his anscestors, maybe this?

 

http://www.familylink.com

Edited January 30, 2014 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

LS, friends and family reporting heavy snaw in East Midlands too. Cold and grey here in Guildford, but heading hame tonight, just in time for the rain again!

[JoeShmoe]

Hope to even see a bit of wet sleet this weekend as havent seen a single snowflake here this winter, not one! .. hard to remember that even in the worst 90's/00's winters

[EastLothianSnow]

Seen this on metcheck earlier:

We are currently monitoring the possibility of a rogue vortex embedded within Storm Nadjas circulation to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions for a time across North-west England, South-west and Eastern Scotland during the early hours of Saturday morning and into Saturday afternoon.

Freezing levels are likely to drop to between 300-400m within this vortex with the possibility of this lowering to 100-200m as the system pushes North-east bringing snow and accumulations in strong Southerly gales to lower levels.

How likely is this is come off and is there the potential for it to affects areas as low as mine or more likely to affect areas a bit higher up?

[blitzen]

Seen this on metcheck earlier:

We are currently monitoring the possibility of a rogue vortex embedded within Storm Nadjas circulation to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions for a time across North-west England, South-west and Eastern Scotland during the early hours of Saturday morning and into Saturday afternoon.

Freezing levels are likely to drop to between 300-400m within this vortex with the possibility of this lowering to 100-200m as the system pushes North-east bringing snow and accumulations in strong Southerly gales to lower levels.

How likely is this is come off and is there the potential for it to affects areas as low as mine or more likely to affect areas a bit higher up?

Don't really rate Metcheck. There are however similar comments  being mentioned elsewhere, so we may get lucky for a time and hopefully we don't sleep through any event! LS & co will be better informed re the height thing though.

[jon_d1983]

I wondered why ye'd all gone quiet. You flitted without telling me!

Can I go totally OT for one minute please - I have an American penpal with a 12 yr old son who wants to know more about Scotland and his Scottish roots. She wants me to give her websites that would be educational but not too heavy. Any ideas?  Can PM if that's less disruptive for the forum.

 

get him on here martha......defo not too heavy and very educational.....maybe makes sure the swear filter is on though when its meant to snow but doesnt lol

[mardatha]

LOL aye he might learn mair than his mother wants him to!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The closer we get to tomorrow the less it looks like it will snow here. Please let me walk to school in the snow!!

[Norrance]

Lots of gritting going on here tonight. Do they know something I don't?

Currently Cloudy with light showers. 2.7C. Wind SE. A little small hail or graupel earlier.

[cscrim]

Aye same here. May be some interest after all in the heart of the winter shield.

[Cheggers]

I is hame and nae travel for 3 weeks, so winter can start now.

 

First blue sky in a while tonight....... was 38 000 feet mind.

[jon_d1983]

Great I'm driving from Aberdeen to kilmacolm tomorrow, leaving Aberdeen at 5pm. So might take the good ladies Jeep instead of my sporty number if its meant to snow then?

[Ross B]

Latest BBC forecasts now showing Friday night and Saturday to have a higher chance of snow to low levels  The main band tomorrow looks like it will skirt around the edges of the central belt so not surprising our best chance is later on in the night!!!!

Edited January 30, 2014 by Ross B

[Hairy Celt]

Can't see the inner firth getting much other than some sleet out of this weekend but I live in hope. Well I do tonight cos I've opened the bottle of malt I got from work for Xmas!

 

There's a bit of thin snow on a few northern hills - not always the highest, rather oddly - and I was getting pelted by graupel at quite low altitude this morning near Forsinard.

 

Gritters were out in force this evening. Freezing by the sea here tonight.