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South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/01/14 12z --------->


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Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    yeah 216 has potential. like you say wouldnt take much. been looking like that for nearly 2 weeks now lol. im almost as fed up of the word potential than i am of the rain! ECM picking up on the (temp) split pv perhaps?

    always optimistic tho Posted Image

    Hi - the big problem is the embedded vortex over Canada that looks likely to be reinforced by further energy transferred across the pole. The cause of this is because the split in the vortex which has got us to the present position (for all its worth!) looks to fill in again through the coming 10 days (also described in my MOD post earlier today)

     

    We need to see a lot more consistent and stronger signals for further and much stronger wave activity to break up all that energy to the NW (well at least I do to be convinced of anything more interesting!)  otherwise the upper trough extending out from Canada and Greenland will continue to control our weather and there is little point in expecting those Russian Heights to do anything for us in terms of being able to get far enough west. Atm the High over Russia/Ukraine is actually causing the troughing to keep grinding to a halt over us. Hence the rain goes on and on etc etc

     

    Its too far away to help us get a cold pattern but it is too close in terms of it blocking further eastward progress to clear the rainbands further out from the UK to dry things up a bit, Rather the worse of all worlds.

     

    Its a face value operational anyway, but it we were to take the ECM this evening as read, the best it does is a rinse and repeat pretty much of what we have now at the very best. The High over Russia is also orientated wrongly anyway and the air is sourced from the Balkans rather than northern europe. But its all academic as it is just one operational chart anywayPosted Image

     

    @ John - I'm fine thanks, especially after a nice chinese meal and some sparkly winePosted Image

    Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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    Just read this on the Met Office page for the East of England, doesn't look warm over the weekend after the rain on Friday

     

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    A bright, frosty start on Friday, but becoming cloudy, wet and windy later. Sunny spells and scattered blustery showers on Saturday and Sunday, occasionally of sleet. Feeling cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Hi - the big problem is the embedded vortex over Canada that looks likely to be reinforced by further energy transferred across the pole. The cause of this is because the split in the vortex which has got us to the present position (for all its worth!) looks to fill in again through the coming 10 days (also described in my MOD post earlier today)

     

    We need to see a lot more consistent and stronger signals for further and much stronger wave activity to break up all that energy to the NW (well at least I do to be convinced of anything more interesting!)  otherwise the upper trough extending out from Canada and Greenland will continue to control our weather and there is little point in expecting those Russian Heights to do anything for us in terms of being able to get far enough west. Atm the High over Russia/Ukraine is actually causing the troughing to keep grinding to a halt over us. Hence the rain goes on and on etc etc

     

    Its too far away to help us get a cold pattern but it is too close in terms of it blocking further eastward progress to clear the rainbands further out from the UK to dry things up a bit, Rather the worse of all worlds.

     

    Its a face value operational anyway, but it we were to take the ECM this evening as read, the best it does is a rinse and repeat pretty much of what we have now at the very best. The High over Russia is also orientated wrongly anyway and the air is sourced from the Balkans rather than northern europe. But its all academic as it is just one operational chart anywayPosted Image

     

    hi tam

     

    if you follow the short term models you will see ukmo has constantly

     

    pushed the high from our east west over the last 3 runs

     

    i am not surprised by this

     

    this certainly isnt gfs territory ( zonal in fi as per usual)

     

    also the nao have the charts showing an overprogessive positive anomoly

     

    anyway if the block pushes like it does at some stage it will have to undercut

     

    anyway be interested to see whos right here

     

    have seen this happen before

     

    anyway hope your well

     

    john

    Edited by john pike
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Just read this on the Met Office page for the East of England, doesn't look warm over the weekend after the rain on Friday

     

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    A bright, frosty start on Friday, but becoming cloudy, wet and windy later. Sunny spells and scattered blustery showers on Saturday and Sunday, occasionally of sleet. Feeling cold.

    There was also sleet on the Kent forecast for Saturday, was surprised tbh. All rain apparently from this rain were getting now. JP it does seem to be acting like a streamer.

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    Our council gritting forecast for this evening, not sure about the clear periods as it's been raining all evening

     

    A clear evening, allowing road surface temperatures to begin to fall, however they are currently expected to remain above freezing. Further outbreaks of patchy rain will begin to push in from the southeast from midnight and continue into Thursday morning. There is a risk of seeing a little sleet on Thursday morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi alexis

     

    only we can get an easterly

     

    and rain Posted Image

     

    well sleet

     

    just watching a heavier burst about to hit me in about 10 mins

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Just looked out and it is still raining here, feels cold out too, one more reason to stay cozy and warm indoors and not to venture out this evening (not that I had any plans to do so), and as for this coming weekend, well it is my first two day week end in a couple of weeks and judging from the output and the forecasts emerging I can see I will look to remain holed up at home staying dry and warm rather than stepping out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

    Evening all

    Set off for Birmingham at 5:30 am for a meeting. Drove through drizzle of varying degrees of intensity and irritation. Attended meeting and looked out at a drab Birmingham skyscape as the rain fell. Meeting was, however, a success! Back into car at 4:30, out through a very wet (but still drab) and by now colder Birmingham and back onto the M42 and M40 where simply awful driving conditions met me. Rain, spray, double speed wipers the whole time, a brief moment when on the high part of the M40 there was the odd splash of sleet (not enough to measure) and then I ground to a halt on the M25 where the rain was less intense for a while and then picked up again, back to double-wiper speed blah blah blah.

    Finally back to Reigate 8pm. Raining here too. I have opened a bottle of sauvignon blanc in an attempt to create that light summer feel to the evening. So far, not working

    AS

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Evening allSet off for Birmingham at 5:30 am for a meeting. Drove through drizzle of varying degrees of intensity and irritation. Attended meeting and looked out at a drab Birmingham skyscape as the rain fell. Meeting was, however, a success! Back into car at 4:30, out through a very wet (but still drab) and by now colder Birmingham and back onto the M42 and M40 where simply awful driving conditions met me. Rain, spray, double speed wipers the whole time, a brief moment when on the high part of the M40 there was the odd splash of sleet (not enough to measure) and then I ground to a halt on the M25 where the rain was less intense for a while and then picked up again, back to double-wiper speed blah blah blah.Finally back to Reigate 8pm. Raining here too. I have opened a bottle of sauvignon blanc in an attempt to create that light summer feel to the evening. So far, not workingAS

    Open another bottle quick then, find the more bottles opened the more likely you end up where you mind needs to be (alas the headache in the morning is always a 'blinder')

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    You can't even get a telephone-box for 150k in the capital nowadays LOL! Posted ImagePosted Image

    Let alone (potential) pool, air con, terrace, views or some land...they get decent storms albeit occasionally they duly arrive.But no hosepipe bans.

     

    Lanzarote is a very barren island with little natural vegetation it’s dominated by bare rock and sand blown over from the Sahara, and is mainly low lying so doesn't cause clouds to shed their load of rain. In consequence, there are no rivers other than short lived torrents after the occasional rain and no surface water so the whole island is supplied using reverse osmosis, desalinated seawater!

     

     

    just watching a heavier burst about to hit me in about 10 mins

     

    Sounds like you need one of these.....

     

    post-10773-0-14385700-1391026856_thumb.j

     

     

    still miserable here....got wet going to Waitrose !

    Edited by MKsnowangel
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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    just deleted a couple of posts that had absolutely nothing to do with the thread title......sorry, but please keep it roughly on topic Posted Image

    Would be interested in what they were as regular posters here all know each other quite well and sometimes the 'offbeat' posts tell a bigger story and a persons views in an abstract way we have come to understand and respect more than you would think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    Looks like Biggin Hill might see some of white stuff tonight which isn't surprising I guess.

    Hope so as I'm in addingtonIf biggin hill get snow I get snowJust a bit of wet snow falling will do meGetting desperate now
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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    just looked a the weather forecast on morzine and it shows snow all day on sunday which is the day I arrive there. will send pics if possible

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    Lanzarote is a very barren island with little natural vegetation it’s dominated by bare rock and sand blown over from the Sahara, and is mainly low lying so doesn't cause clouds to shed their load of rain. In consequence, there are no rivers other than short lived torrents after the occasional rain and no surface water so the whole island is supplied using reverse osmosis, desalinated seawater!

     

     

    Very interesting, didn't know about the desalination being the only potable supply. Very expensive and as I understand it, they need to invest heavily to keep it running. But in dry climate of course it has to be an option where groundwater isn't viable.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    LOL, I love the desperate grasp of winter here, so much so people will take sleet and sing for Winter.

     

    That is by no means a dig but a obs and nothing more, we all have our pref and wants (must admit I would like to see a sample of winter as much as the other seasons and all given in respectful amounts)

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    just looked a the weather forecast on morzine and it shows snow all day on sunday which is the day I arrive there. will send pics if possible

    forget the pics !!Send the snow Hope you have a great time mate
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    got a heavier burst here

     

    still sleet at present

     

    you watch it will get cold enough and then dry out Posted Image

    Edited by john pike
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    got a heavier burst here

     

    still sleet at present

     

    you watch it will get cold enough and then dry out Posted Image

    Still just rain here

    :(

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    well looking  at  the  radar  plenty coming  out  of france  to-night could  be  a  wet old  night  again!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

    We need to see a lot more consistent and stronger signals for further and much stronger wave activity to break up all that energy to the NW (well at least I do to be convinced of anything more interesting!)

     Hi Tamara :)

     

    Wave activity has been doing its best for our hopes with the almost constant waxing and waning tag team of wave 1 + 2. I had hoped the current quite strong wave 2 might do the job but frankly it seems we need some kind of nuclear wave activity to inflict the damage required to be rid of the semi permenant Canadian vortex.

    Any other winter (or at least eQBO ones), this would have been sufficient by now.

    There is some suggestion of wave 2 increasing again at day 10 (roughly) but like you say, this winter has already proved that we require something a lot stronger and consistent than we have seen so far this winter, and for that, there is certainly nothing concrete. However i remain hopeful (mainly because im a glutton for punishment) until the end of March :)

     

    Could i also take this opportunity to thank you for your wonderful contributions to the various threads on this forum, very much appreciated :)

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    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    Have been out for my 20 minute run slog around the streets, and its really cold rain (or is that mild sleet?) out there. Feel better after that, having WFH all day. Drank my wine before I went out. Not a good move - together with rain soaked, misted up specs I was lucky not to fall flat on my face

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    does rain make things shrink??? Posted Image

    only mr pooch is looking a bit small today Posted Image

    think he's had too many walks in the rain :rolleyes:

    'ning all :)

    still feeling lousy with cold/flu/chest infection. but walking dog in fresh air is ok if i take it slow. trouble is, walking slow just means we are out longer, and thus, getting soaked  more :(

    is it time for spring yet?

    then again, theres no guarantee spring will be dry.... Posted Image

    hope everyone is ok :)

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Can anybody explain to me what stops Fridays low following this one SE, the block to the east has a SE slant, the gap this low makes is still there, but some how after the low comes in heading slightly southeast it gets push northeast into the block and wins, if it's not powerful enough to win in the first place how can it get stronger and win when it's weakening?

    JP I posted this earlier just wondering if you have any thought's on this?

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