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South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/01/14 12z --------->


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Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)

    Just in case you don't all self-harm by going into the MOD, can I recommend that you check out Tamara's most recent post immediately, before it gets mixed out in the less helpful contributions. It is a fantastic synopsis of how we have got where we are now, and sadly, how Wet Wet Wet is unlikely to stop spreading its special blend of love all around any time soon. Well done TamaraPosted Image

    Edited by Reefseeker
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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    But you get no snow....NEXT! Posted Image

    Nothing that one weeks holiday to somewhere snowy each year wouldn't fix !
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Nothing that one weeks holiday to somewhere snowy each year wouldn't fix !

     

    I don't really see the interest in a snow holiday really. Cold and dangerous. But that is my opinion of course others will be different and that's that :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Well, at the moment, it looks like heavy rain late Friday and overnight, clearing Saturday morning. The strongest winds will be early Saturday evening - strong, but not damaging. Probably scattered showers for the weekend, for Suffolk, once the rain clears.

     

    Rain the main concern for our region rather than the winds I guess.

    Will E Anglia be affected by this storm at the week-end? Particularly Suffolk.

     

    Not as bad as further South or North of you, but yes, more heavy rain due:

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    Rain the main concern for our region rather than the winds I guess.

    Yes, although we seem to have further opportunities for strong winds next week, looking at the 06Z GFS. A few potential meteorological bullets to my eyes. :( A horribly unsettled run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Yes, although we seem to have further opportunities for strong winds next week, looking at the 06Z GFS. A few potential meteorological bullets to my eyes. Posted Image A horribly unsettled run.

     

    I dare not look TBH Steve, oh go on then....

     

    Posted Image

     

    Whoops! here we go yet again

     

    Posted Image

     

    The another biggy bashes us from the Atlantic:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water!

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Can anybody explain to me what stops Fridays low following this one SE, the block to the east has a SE slant, the gap this low makes is still there, but some how after the low comes in heading slightly southeast it gets push northeast into the block and wins, if it's not powerful enough to win in the first place how can it get stronger and win when it's weakening?

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Can anybody explain to me what stops Fridays low following this one SE, the block to the east has a SE slant, the gap this low makes is still there, but some how after the low comes in heading slightly southeast it gets push northeast into the block and wins, if it's not powerful enough to win in the first place how can it get stronger and win when it's weakening?

     

    Im not overly sure but I think it is to do with the temperatures of the Atmoshpere and temperatures slightly above ground, remeber that there are layers in the Atmosphere as you go up it gets colder, when you have a low pressure system like this one it is mixing this alround and most often introduces much warmer air from the Atlantic which can mix out the colder air :)

    Next lot of rain might just get to Kent before stalling?

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Can anybody explain to me what stops Fridays low following this one SE, the block to the east has a SE slant, the gap this low makes is still there, but some how after the low comes in heading slightly southeast it gets push northeast into the block and wins, if it's not powerful enough to win in the first place how can it get stronger and win when it's weakening?

     

    Changes in the direction of the jet stream tomorrow into Friday?

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Or is that just a result of the helical rotation/direction of the low anyway?

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    Changes in the direction of the jet stream tomorrow into Friday?

     

     

     

    Or is that just a result of the helical rotation/direction of the low anyway?

     

    My sort of thoughts. Here are 12 hourly charts, showing the development of the low. At the start, it's interacting with and being steered by a very strong jet. By the end, it has exited the jet, has no steering and is filling (slowly dying a death).

     

    post-11059-0-15804800-1391005330_thumb.ppost-11059-0-09208900-1391005356_thumb.ppost-11059-0-02695300-1391005384_thumb.ppost-11059-0-58154900-1391005409_thumb.p

     

    I don't know the mechanics of why the low must exit the jet; I need to revisit the cold sector of depressions catching and occluding the warm sector and the jet stream interaction tbh. Posted Image

    Edited by Steve C
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Well my idea was crap Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Does anyone know if the earth being saturated like this can cause the tectonic plates to move?

    Yamkins your man for that Jenny.... or....... Jane..   PM him.

    Edited by Biggin
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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Pretty sure some rain with a small wintry element was hitting my car windscreen just now.

     

    Edit prob just my eyesight.

    Edited by Biggin
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Well my idea was crap Posted Image Posted Image

     

    But still welcome Luke! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    But still welcome Luke! Posted Image

     

    Thank you buddy :) Still on a big... learning curve Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Pretty sure some rain with a small wintry element was hitting my car windscreen just now.

     

    Haven't even got the pleasure of that :(

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Still on a big... learning curve Posted Image

     

    We all are and I guess as long as new science comes along and people develop bigger and better models etc, we will keep on learning. I still only have a very small % of the knowledge of many on here (and a few more hunches TBH) and really enjoy the forecasts and explanations given by our more experienced members who have been studying meteorology for years.

     

    100 years ago people were using seaweed and pine cones to guess what the weather might be the day after. Today we look at charts produced by supercomputers to tell us broadly what's going to happen in 5 days time. Who knows how accurate we will be in 100 years time? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    rather than the snow cup let's have a predict the first snowflake.

     

    I predict February 17th at 11:32am from a sharp shower than drops the temp enough for a few flakes to appear.

    Edited by warrenb
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Who knows how accurate we will be in 100 years time? 

     

    Back to pine cones Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    rather than the snow cup let's have a predict the first snowflake.

     

    I predict 2015.........

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    Posted
  • Location: HIgh Wycombe, Bucks Approx 200m ASl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: HIgh Wycombe, Bucks Approx 200m ASl

    Temp dropping fast here. 1.5 according to car.

    horrible out here.

    Katie

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