South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 26/1/14 12z ------->

[egret]

A huge gust of wind just now and something quite large went crash outside. We are quite sheltered from the S/SW so I suspect this was a squall that was diving downwards. 

 

It will be interesting to look around when I walk the dogs in the morning.  Edit: Just investigated what went crash outside - a big sheet of lead 'hip flashing' (probably weighs about 50Kg) has come off our neighbour's roof and is now lying in the drive - fortunately no cars parked there!

Edited February 4, 2014 by egret

[TheLastMinute]

Fergie's just twitted that MetO Weather Warning for wind has been upgraded to Amber. By the sounds of the reports coming in on here and Twitter, I'm not surprised.

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather  6m

#WILTSHIRE 2200 hrs AMBER warning upgrade to strong winds now being enacted for south of county, effective immediately. Ditto #DORSET

Edited February 4, 2014 by TheLastMinute

[Rammie]

Was surprised it was only a yellow to be honest

[Cakie]

Should have been amber if not red. This is a red warning in my book, danger to life out there

[Polar Bear]

Where's the warning upgrade going to be? MetOffice? Not surprised really as I can really hear that Southey whistling through the house and we only have reached about 30mph gusts!

[Nick L]

Still only yellow on the website.

[George]

Amber now up on website

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391558400&regionName=sw

[Cakie]

Where's the warning upgrade going to be? MetOffice? Not surprised really as I can really hear that Southey whistling through the house and we only have reached about 30mph gusts!

Maybe in your neck of the woods but this has been very bad down here. Looking forward to it easing so I can go to sleep. No chance at the moment

[katemart]

Ooh, sudden drop in air pressure. 985mB. Are we bombing?

[Cakie]

Still strong winds and rain here. I would be happy to say goodbye as I need an early night but the squally showers are relentless

[nettie]

Evening all, the rain and wind are really bashing against the house now! Bought some candles up to bed with me just in case. The lights have started flickering. Spoke to my mum 10 mins ago she has no power at the moment. She lives in Porton about 15 min drive from me. Kids are snoring their little heads my other half is as well lucky them , oh and the cats have gone into hiding. Keep safe everyone.

[Somerset Squall]

Had a gust of 63mph recorded by my weather station about an hour ago, certainly rough out there!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Please bear in mind folks that the peak gusts are due over the coming couple of hours then we are due a lull before further showers and further prolonged bands of rain arrive into Wednesday daytime. During Wednesday the winds will still be strong (severe Gale gusts at times) but hopefully not as violent as today. Flooding and wind strewn debris WILL be additional hazards to contend with.

[gottolovethisweather]

Where's the warning upgrade going to be? MetOffice? Not surprised really as I can really hear that Southey whistling through the house and we only have reached about 30mph gusts!

 

The passage of the back edge of the Front is likely to hit our patch PB between Midnight and 1am I would imagine, this is when the peak gusts should arrive. I only expect isolated 50mph to 60mph gusts inland but in saying that, these would still be capable of causing damage.

[rich1974]

The passage of the back edge of the Front is likely to hit our patch PB between Midnight and 1am I would imagine, this is when the peak gusts should arrive. I only expect isolated 50mph to 60mph gusts inland but in saying that, these would still be capable of causing damage.

Thanks for the timings!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks for the timings!!

 

No problem, just my judgement based on the radar imagery and recent TV forecasts.

[TheLastMinute]

BBC in Devon reporting that 10 meters or so of sea wall at Dawlish that runs alongside the main railway line has been washed away this evening. If true, that is staggering & I don't think we'll be seeing trains along there for a while!

[viking_smb]

British Rail better get their skates on! and sort it lol

[Evening thunder]

The wind has eased off back home now but there was a gust of 54mph on my home weather station in the valley, highest I've recorded (beating 6th Jan shower squall at 51mph). 10 minute average was 37mph too so almost an inland gale at my station.. not had that before (since getting station in 2007)

 

Slightly surprised to see the amber warning now as it gives winds the same as, or slightly lower than was forecast and was had by the SW this evening under the yellow warning.

 

Was watching a webcam local to home this evening, at Sidmouth sea front. Some crazy waves at times with you not being able to see anything due to the spray going right over building height, and waves coming right over the road and down into the town which sits significantly lower than the road/sea wall.. which didn't look too good..

 

A few images I print-screened from the website with the webcam:

 

 

It has flooded in the past but can't remember seeing/hearing of it like that in recent years at least. This tide was forecast to be 0.6m lower than Monday morning too (though wasn't due to a higher surge height), it could have been a lot worse had this storm occurred on Monday morning..

 

Wet snow last night (lasted to the morning in Honiton) to a storm tonight, though up here in Egham it's just wet and a bit breezy of course.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Evening thunder]

BBC in Devon reporting that 10 meters or so of sea wall at Dawlish that runs alongside the main railway line has been washed away this evening. If true, that is staggering & I don't think we'll be seeing trains along there for a while!

 

In a way I'm not surprised if that's true, this storm has definitely been worse than anything else this winter on that stretch of coast

[gottolovethisweather]

British Rail better get their skates on! and sort it lol

 

They'd be better off with waterskis I'd say. However, those brave folk who are and will continue to work outside attempting to clean up this mess will not need telling I bet.

Edited February 4, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[karencole]

Gust of 70 knots at swanage lifeboat station tonight, stay safe if out driving tonight.

[knocker]

Much quieter here. SW 29 mph gusting 45.

[Karl83]

Very gusty winds out there tonight and the rain was also pretty bad. I am suprised that the Met did not issue weather warnings for the rain, but only the wind.

 

Estofex for tomorrow is interesting btw.

 

 

Storm ForecastValid: Wed 05 Feb 2014 06:00 to Thu 06 Feb 2014 06:00 UTCIssued: Tue 04 Feb 2014 20:58Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for SW England / Wales and W France mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSIONSatellite loops from Tuesday reveal explosive cyclogenesis between 00 and 12 UTC over the Atlantic with the center of the low as of 20 UTC mostly detached from the main baroclinic zone and its center revealing warm secclusion from the perspective of 850 hPa temperature. Behind the occluded front, banded DMC produce isolated lightning strikes over the ocean. This airmass will advect behind the front over some areas of western Europe, with only marginal CAPE values due to the lack of abundant low level moisture and only modest mid-level lapse rates.Strong low-level flow around 850 hPa will contribute to enhanced LLS values, which should easily exceed 10 m/s. DLS should be marginal at best, perhaps apart from Southern France, where lifting jet-stream from south towards north will increase its values. Here, also the best forcing and enhanced SREH will be observed at the time of the instability build-up - around 12 UTC. Thus, we consider the region of Southern France as having the highest potential of low-topped supercells capable of isolated tornadoes / severe wind gusts. However, we can not rule out this scenario also to the north - up to SW England / Wales. Thus, relatively large Lvl 1 is introduced.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Karl83

[Marcus_surfer]

Winds slightly lower now, but more showers heading in and another batch of very strong winds on the way for tomorrow