Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Mark Bayley]

No end in sight for the relentless rain going by the 18z GFS, although wind does become less of an issue. With the ground at saturation point water has few places to go so flooding likely to remain a major issue as we progress towards the end of February. 

[nick sussex]

Overall this evening I think quite a lot of uncertainty going forward, although we've lost some of the more interesting wintry charts you wouldn't bet against these making a return.

 

Upstream we are finally seeing the demise of the limpet PV over eastern Canada, the brutal cold there is on its way out so we won't be seeing that steep thermal gradient and super powered jet stream.

 

Downstream to the ne higher pressure near Svalbard is likely to remain the curveball in any outlook, its often a poorly modelled area and whilst that remains then it could influence the UK's chances of something colder and more wintry UK wide.

 

The last easterly fiasco was helped on its way by the relentless upstream cold and associated PV chunk and that area doesn't quite have the same ammunition this time so any cold that does build to the east or ne is unlikely to just up sticks and wave the white flag.

 

In the medium term for northern areas a chance of some snow and not just for higher ground, before that sadly another horror show looks likely because of that deep low moving in from the sw.

 

Lets hope that's the last major storm of the season.

[stratty]

Unfortunately with the example you give of end of December 84 there was a major warming with a

SSW in early Jan and an imediate trop response. In fact it was in a very similar locale to the warming

we have just had albeit far stronger.

....if the best is an example from 30 years ago for Steve to find it's hardly a regular occurrence and the straw clutching unfortunately continues! It ain't looking good gang for our snow. I seem to remember saying back in December when this westerly based weather started that it would be nice to see a change sooner rather than later.......got shouted down that we were only a few weeks into winter..............now look how far we've come!     Never like seeing the zonal train in winter......reminds me of those yuck winters when this website first started

night all.............stay safe

[stewfox]

Unfortunately with the example you give of end of December 84 there was a major warming with a

SSW in early Jan and an imediate trop response. In fact it was in a very similar locale to the warming

we have just had albeit far stronger.

 

Surely the point is pattern change can and often does happen very quickly

 

We still largely treat FI at T168 yet many poster seem to put FI at T684 wasn't that SM point ??

[TEITS]

Certainly nothing cold on the agenda tonight. Will be interesting as always to see the ensembles, but if they look like the last few sets the morning should put the whole easterly issue to bed sadly.

Nope the E,ly on the output will appear yet again, even tomorrow morning.

 

I have been saying the same for many days now but those predicting a continuation of a mild stormy pattern are likely to be wrong. Watch this space and see how a very cold spell via an E,ly is on its way!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-216.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?18

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z ends on - yes you guessed it - a stormy note!

 

Incredible...

 

We'll all be under 2 foot of water and have no roof left by March if GFS FI comes anywhere close to fruition. BIG trouble if we have a summer on a par with 2007 et al

Edited February 13, 2014 by CreweCold

[syed2878]

totaly agree with u there mr frost. It is bad for the ppl who r suffering. Although the ecmf showed stella charts in it's 00h run it kind of backtracked to an extent. It didn't have much support with it's 0h run. I can't c any meaningful cold will come before feb's out. Those who r forecasting a cold end to feb is no mor than hope cast than anything else. Now i really hope i'm wrong. 

It is becoming a bit tiresome reading posts telling us not to look or wish for more extreme weather or even snow/ cold as this would only exacerbate certain situations in parts of the country. This is a weather forum, telling people not to wish or look for the above is like telling Cristiano Ronaldo not to play football or a cleaner not to actually clean. Like every other person on here I have sympathy and feel for the folk who are directly affected by all that has gone on storm wise over the past couple of months. Would I get excited if I had been in the red warning area today? Would I be excited if 40cms of snow was forecast? Would I get excited if I lived in Oklahoma and an EF5 tornado was bearing down on my town? 100% hell yes to all of the above. What will be will be, there is nothing any of us can do about it. I will continue to hunt for wintry weather up until the end of March...whether it be frost, ice or blizzards. Still plenty of time - the models have been woeful this Winter leading most of us up the garden path. Fair play to the Metoffice, spot on so far.

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run has increasing amounts of wintry potential and also some calm and frosty weather.... signs of a major pattern change towards the end..just in time for spring

[Captain Shortwave]

So the only model this morning showing anything close to cold is the GFS.... of course the GFS is the blocking fueled non progressive model of our dreams and the others just default to zonal 

ECM starting to show a little consistency of trying to build high pressure in from the south west from the middle of next week onwards

Hope for those who want to dry out.

[bluearmy]

The gfs yet again showing why it desperately needs its upcoming revamp.

Difficult to see how we get back to where we were yesterday, given the overnight output.

[Jason M]

Nope the E,ly on the output will appear yet again, even tomorrow morning. I have been saying the same for many days now but those predicting a continuation of a mild stormy pattern are likely to be wrong. Watch this space and see how a very cold spell via an E,ly is on its way! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-216.png?18http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?18

Good luck with that, because computer still says no this morning ;-)GFS gets very close, but in fairness it has very little support from its own ensemble suite and looks very isolated to me.I want you to be right, but your prediction goes against almost all the modelling and background signals. I must admit I thought we were in with a shout second half of feb, albeit the odds were never great. My own forecasting instincts tell me that ship has sailed though.Time to settle down and listen to the fat lady IMHO. Could we see a march /April slushfest though? Certainly wouldn't rule that out.

[Frosty.]

There are strong indications that the stormy pattern with rampant cyclogenesis will END in about 4-5 days time with pressure rising considerably, the Ecm 00z in particular is showing an anticyclonic spell evolving which would be a tremendous relief for the flood and storm ravaged areas, gradually calming down with frost and fog later.

[london-snow]

Nope the E,ly on the output will appear yet again, even tomorrow morning. I have been saying the same for many days now but those predicting a continuation of a mild stormy pattern are likely to be wrong. Watch this space and see how a very cold spell via an E,ly is on its way! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-216.png?18http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?18

The phrase ' I can hear you my lord but i cannot see you '

[IDO]

Yes the GFS op looks good in FI but is an outlier, London ens: 

 

It is really no change from yesterday from the GEFS, the ten day mean:  

 

The main differences are that both GEM and ECM now fit nicely in one of the GEFS clusters.

 

D10 ECM:   GEM: 

 

ECM builds pressure to the south and GEM has a slack flow (vortex in three pieces). However both suggest the PV is reorganising for one last session late February. 

 

So more of the same again with the possibility of passing ridges hanging close to the south for a bit longer than of late. At the end of FI the GEFS show little sign of bringing anything like a cold spell to the UK (ignoring the out of kilt op and one other member).

 

Shorter term the next 9 days brings more rain to places who do not need it, GFS: 

 

After Friday/Saturday storm we have a lull of about five days (20th) before the next potential storm is modelled.

 

We are certainly looking like winter will finish wet, and a snowless winter for my area looks odds on now.

Edited February 13, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[TEITS]

Good luck with that, because computer still says no this morning ;-)

GFS gets very close, but in fairness it has very little support from its own ensemble suite and looks very isolated to me.

I want you to be right, but your prediction goes against almost all the modelling and background signals. I must admit I thought we were in with a shout second half of feb, albeit the odds were never great. My own forecasting instincts tell me that ship has sailed though.

Time to settle down and listen to the fat lady IMHO.

Could we see a march /April slushfest though? Certainly wouldn't rule that out.

0Z GFS was only slightly an outlier.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140213/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Still considering the wildly different ECM runs and the 0Z GFS I feel its premature to write off the chance of an E,ly before Feb is out.

 

I would like to add something to the poster who referred to me as hopecasting. Trust me I have far more important things in life going on right now than a few flakes of snow. Im posting on here and continuing with my forecasting because its proves to be a nice distraction from my daily woes! I do not allow my bias to affectment my judgement when forecasting and continue to use instincts.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z, indeed, all three main models show the stormy pattern finally running out of steam & a rather colder spell early next week with a slack polar airflow and widespread frosts, welcome relief for the flood / storm hit areas...Amen to that.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Frosty.

[chris55]

Nice GFS low res. here's hoping it's picking up on a change for the better. Both in a calming of the strorms, and a much colder pattern setting up. Not much support as mentioned but you never

Know.

[Frosty.]

My instinct says the worst will soon be over, gradually calming down into next week, rather colder col. conditions, then a north / south split with the north having changeable / unsettled weather but nothing like the current nasty spell, and the southern half of the uk eventually having a steady rise in pressure with frosty nights and fog patches, sunny spells.

[Frosty.]

Let me put it this way, there is nowhere near the wintry potential the 00z runs showed 24 hours ago, apart from the Gfs 00z at T+350 lalalala land.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me the ECM is not the model to look at for consistency or confidence, indeed are any.  FI solutions differing BUT the real cold outcome diminishing which I think is on the right track but detail still to come for sure

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

For me the ECM is not the model to look at for consistency or confidence, indeed are any.  FI solutions differing BUT the real cold outcome diminishing which I think is on the right track but detail still to come for sure

 

BFTP

Ecm 00z is a damp squib this morning, it always flatters to deceive..I should stress that i'm no GFS Fanboy but I really feel the ecm has been ABYSMAL this winter. at least the weather looks like returning to normal next week.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Frosty.

[Timmytour]

Ecm 00z is a damp squib this morning, it always flatters to deceive..I should stress that i'm no GFS Fanboy but I really feel the ecm has been ABYSMAL this winter. at least the weather looks like returning to normal next week.

Flatters to deceive...then flattens to believe

[Frosty.]

Flatters to deceive...then flattens to believe

Yeah flatters to deceive then flattens the pattern

Edited February 13, 2014 by Frosty.

[Jason M]

Nothing wrong with citing GFS frosty. Just because Steve doesn't rate it, doesn't make someone a fanboy.

ECM is a good model, but on the big calls this winter GFS has generally been good. Whether it's just luck that in a record breaking zonal winter that GFS has correctly kept calling zonal who knows?

ECM hasn't really been bad it's just that we have been constantly looking at day 10 charts to verify, which they rarely do on any model.

Astonishing winter really, not only snowless but not even a cold dry northerly toppler. 3 months without a cold snap at our latitude is really something noteworthy.

Edit 4 months if we include November.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Jason M

[snowblizzard]

Winter 2013/2014 has been so disappointing and really quite depressing in so many ways!

 

The chances of anything significantly wintry have now surely passed, it's just not going to happen this winter!

 

So, the sooner we get into Spring and forget about it the better.

 

March 15th 2012 - I remember cutting my hedge in clear blue skies and 20C

 

We can only hope.