Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Mucka]

UKMO a bit of a stinker I'm afraid.

 

 

GFS is somewhat better but doesn't quite get there.

 

Edited February 12, 2014 by Mucka

[mountain shadow]

Once again Ukmet over amplifying in the T+120 hour period, GFS remaining resolute with its default zonality making look better than it really is.

 

I expect the ECM will fold again tonight and that will be that for a widespread lowland snow/frost spell this Winter.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Quite a marked difference at t120 on the 12z compared to the 06 , everything further west , and the cold air slightly further south , and the low coming behind the first low is negatively tilted in comparison to the 06 , so small steps in the right direction this evening .

And a very very different northern profile

Edited February 12, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Mucka]

Quite a marked difference at t120 on the 12z compared to the 06 , everything further west , and the cold air slightly further south , and the low coming behind the first low is negatively tilted in comparison to the 06 , so small steps in the right direction this evening .

image.jpgimage.jpg

And a very very different northern profile

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

Small steps forward for GFS but it should be noted it is coming from a long way back and still fails to deliver. 

UKMO is dreadful while GEM has a good ridge still but much further East so mixed but rather disappointing output so far this evening for me.

[SMU]

Mucka

UKMO 144 isnt that bad, just not the same as the ECM

GFS is moving slowly to a colder solution

Eyes down for the ECM

S

[weather eater]

Yes the UKMO is not up to much however I still don't rate it at 144hrs anyway. The GFS on the other hand wouldn't have to change much, its certainly got plenty of upgrade potential, besides I prefer a slow evolution, I don't trust wonder charts a 120hrs plus anyway. My word its got windy here in just the last 15 mins.

Edited February 12, 2014 by weather eater

[Mucka]

MuckaUKMO 144 isnt that bad, just not the same as the ECMGFS is moving slowly to a colder solutionEyes down for the ECMS

 

 No ridge,the Azores high ridging in with a secondary low ready to form and roll over the top. Yes it will be more amplified upstream again but we would be waiting for another bus that may never come. What's to like?

I guess "stinker" and "dreadful" are strong terms and I guess given the upstream possibilities it could be argued it isn't that bad but given what we were hoping to see it definitely ain't good IMHO. That's all it is though, opinion - we need UKMO out to day 7 if exists.

[SMU]

I like the GEM tonight

Only out to 180 but more or less the same as ECM

The key is the wall of waa and the cold marching SW into northern europe ....

S

[Cloud 10]

In the context of this winter i think many would take the UKMO with open arms!

 

[Mark Bayley]

Some nasty looking ensembles with regards to Friday/Saturdays storm

[Mucka]

The wind is kicking up something fierce here now. Just had two wheely bins chasing each other down the road. I don't think I can ever remember a red warning for NW England for wind before.

 

Looking at GFS ensembles there is still virtually no support for an ECM/GEM 00z type Easterly forming and even though I wouldn't read too much into that yet I am already getting the feeling we are flogging a dead horse. reverse jinx

Edited February 12, 2014 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Keep the faith coldies, the BIGGEST Ecm run of the winter so far is just around the corner...please let there be slider lows and massive height rises to the north east, call it the second bite at the cherry, the last time this happened we were so close to a pattern change and we could yet salvage something positive from this disaster of a winter.

 

We have been  ing all winter for charts like we had on the 00z

[Jason M]

I like the GEM tonight

Only out to 180 but more or less the same as ECM

The key is the wall of waa and the cold marching SW into northern europe ....

S

 

Will be interesting to see if it enjoys any meaningful support from its ensembles. It does look a bit ECM like though

[weather eater]

The wind is kicking up something fierce here now. Just had two wheely bins chasing each other down the road. I don't think I can ever remember a red warning for NW England for wind before.

 

Looking at GFS ensembles there is still virtually no support for an ECM/GEM 00z type Easterly forming and even though I wouldn't read too much into that yet I am already getting the feeling we are flogging a dead horse. reverse jinx

My yes massive gust here a few minutes ago, telephone lines just outside are making some weird noises and the conservatory is creaking like a ship in a gale. As for the models it just doesn’t feel like they are going to do more than tease us a little more before winter bows out.

[john pike]

 

updated fax chart for friday night

 

ouch

[Long haul to mild]

Some nasty looking ensembles with regards to Friday/Saturdays storm

 

Hope those don't come off, I'm hoping that the Low won't deepen too much in the meantime.

 

So far over here, the worst storm we had by far was the St Jude one in October, followed by the pre-Christmas one. I think Saturday's has the potential to equal the 23rd December one in strength, if not longevity.

 

If it turns out like St Jude, I can look forward to my garden being rearranged again!

[Tim Bland]

GEM is close but no cigar tonight with the cold staying just to our East. I'd bet my house that the ECM is about to backtrack at least to the level of the GEM

[Long haul to mild]

GEM is close but no cigar tonight with the cold staying just to our East. I'd bet my house that the ECM is about to backtrack at least to the level of the GEM

We'll be finding out soon! Have to agree that I am not expecting anything other than a disappointment though; I would have liked to see more support from elsewhere by now, although as Steve M says, the GFS is slowly coming around to the idea!

[bluearmy]

We'll be finding out soon! Have to agree that I am not expecting anything other than a disappointment though; I would have liked to see more support from elsewhere by now, although as Steve M says, the GFS is slowly coming around to the idea!

 

does that mean they will meet in the middle ???

[Tim Bland]

They often do BA. Could mean the cold stays to our east before the atlantic Comes back in...story of the winter

[Long haul to mild]

does that mean they will meet in the middle ???

I decided that my post was too negative so tried to temper it with some optimism!

 

I don't think any middle ground will be very exciting for those of us waiting for a wintry blast from the East somehow though.....

[mcweather]

They are usually very good and much better in my view (others disagree) than the synoptic models. If the 3 are very similar over about 3 days to each other and consistent then about 70% accuracy at 500mb. The clever bit then is to try and get the surface pattern close.

Yes I can think of one instance when the synoptic models consistently showed a change before the anomaly charts but just the one I can recall in 4 years daily watching throughout each year.

 

Thanks for your reply John

[winterof79]

UKMO and GEM at 144 are very cold charts for northern Britain.

It is going always more than likely to end in tears if one tries to hunt for beasterlys and deeper cold beyond this stage.Lets see if ECM is still cold at 144z.

Edited February 12, 2014 by winterof79

[shaky]

Ecm looks interesting!!heights elongating northwards just like the 00z at t144 hours!!snow event maybe aswell between 120 and 144 hours along the -3 850 line??Central and northern areas!!

[bluearmy]

just to say that there is only one gefs member making a stab at the 00z ecm and gem solution