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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Nice little squall line currently passing through Hatfield travelling north east at the moment.......well i would say it's nice and usually, in the absence of snow it would be something of interest at least, but now I wonder how much it will hurt the flooded homes of north east Herts still clearing up from last friday.And for all the talk of whether or not later in the week might bring snow, one thing seems to be for sure....it's going to bring precipitation in one form or the other which won't help either!

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Nice little squall line currently passing through Hatfield travelling north east at the moment.......well i would say it's nice and usually, in the absence of snow it would be something of interest at least, but now I wonder how much it will hurt the flooded homes of north east Herts still clearing up from last friday.And for all the talk of whether or not later in the week might bring snow, one thing seems to be for sure....it's going to bring precipitation in one form or the other which won't help either!

     

    Think a few people are going to have suprise midlands north tomorrow if the Met Office warnings come off for snow

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Ukmo has the low pressure in the atlantic at 96 hours further south in the atlantic!!could b interesting at 120 hours chart if the low skids through the channel!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Ukmo has the low pressure in the atlantic at 96 hours further south in the atlantic!!could b interesting at 120 hours chart if the low skids through the channel!!

     

    No such luck Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    No such luck Posted Image

    ridiculous how it just bombs out of nowhere!!really weird that!still north of that low could see a lot of snow!!not to forget tomorrow hopefully!!
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

    If the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO are right, the UK faces two potent storms this week. The one modelled for the weekend, with its SW track would be particularly worrying if it verified!

    post-18804-0-10111600-1392050417_thumb.j

    Edited by pandit-scholar
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Meanwhile the most promising chart in weeks comes along for Scotland which has not been given a single mention

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Snow for Scotland and NW England from a brief blast from the Arctic. Shows that with the weakening jet you could get enough separation of the energy between Greenland and Scandinavia to open up a northerly flow if transient. 

    Also as Steve below says the upstream low should move along the southern flank of that Scandi trough and would definitely put a dividing line across the UK with snow to the north.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    After the storminess of this week the UKMO day 6 points to proper polar air getting into Scotland-

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0

     

    At first glance not your typical classic chart but with -10c on the doorstep if your looking for wintry weather that's certainly a start-

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW144-7.GIF?10-18

    Also with that atlantic low sliding ESE that could certainly engage the colder air & produce some more significant snow...

     

    Interesting to see if the ECM follows suit.

    A very difficult week ahead for all manor of reasons.

     

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021012/ECU1-48.GIF?10-0

     

    ECM ramping up the deep low- Southern Ireland gets wiped out- 100 MPH gusts there no doubt

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021012/ECM1-48.GIF?10-0

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Posted Image

    It's not brilliant but it's something colder and drier

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    It's not brilliant but it's something colder and drier

     

    amazingly, if it verified, it would be the most wintry chart of the winter thus far. depressing for the 18th feb !

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    At last something to talk about that isn't just wind and rain. Interesting ECM and the more amplified upstream pattern helps to develop something colder for the UK, could be some significant snow between T120 and T144hrs as that low heads ne, western flank over high ground most favoured.

     

    If the upstream pattern can verify in terms of amplification then a chance that troughing to the west could disrupt some energy se'wards and support high pressure near the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    High pressure looks to be a theme of the mid term lately. Atlantic dominance may just be about to fade for the first time this winter. Once it does, and under a cool high, frost and fog would become prevalent, making things feel much more seasonal. And then there is the option of something more interesting snow-wise.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    t240 ends with low pressure moving into the north west, though more importantly the south stays dry which is what is desperately needed now

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    The last few runs the GFS has been playing about with amplifing the pattern in the t150 to

    t196 time frame. Now the UKMO and the ECM show this. Hopefully this is a work in progress

    and we will see further amplification with a link to the the stronger heights much further north.

     

    ECM t240 is almost pornagraphic. beautiful, beautiful chart. I want to see t264 etc lol.

    Good old strat warming I knew it would not let us down.

    Edited by cooling climate
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Dry, frosty, colder and possibly foggy at t192 and t216 from ECM tonight

     

     

     

     

    we can but dream ........................................

     

    the ens have had a mean amplified upper ridge moving west to east but the op, typically, over eggs the pudding. its another variation on the theme of yesterday mornings 00z op run. so what do we take from it ? well at day 6 it has good support from ukmo and it isnt too far from the gfs 00z run.  to me,  that says an undercutting system has a 50/50 chance days 6 to 7 of verifying. what follows this undercut, (and it may not actually deliver precip to the uk) is open to conjecture but the ecm op looks too amplified, given current output. remembering that what precedes the potential undercut will bring wintry conditions to the northern half of the uk. at least something interesting for the coldies!

     

    note that the mean jet on the ecm ens post day 6 is as weak as ive seen it modelled thus far through the winter. that does mean its difficult to dismiss any evolution as not credible, though as i said, that op is probably a step too far for the moment. could be a different tale come the morning and even if we end up with a weak upper ridge east of iceland and the jet continuing to bring systems across the atlantic, that wouldnt be such a bad return with the possibility of further undercutting.

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Really are we here again? Maybe this time it will come of and the cold lovers (me too as this wind and rain is doing my nut now) can get some frost..

     

    But been here what 3/4 times now? 

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