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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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The type of pressure build from the ECM would probably bring more in the way of frost than we have been currently experiencing. Yes given the flow from the south the daytime highs would probably be double figures quite widely, but you would get a large diurnal range as the flow would quite likely bring clear skies if we get winds coming up from Spain as opposed to around the Azores region.

February 2008 is a good example where some places reached the mid-teens during the day but experienced widespread frosts at night.

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The ECM London temperature ensembles suggest that things may become a little drier after this week - temperatures also trending upwards.  This would suggest pressure rises from the south.

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

No signs of anything wintry in the medium term....

Edited by mulzy
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While I can wholeheartedly understand people wanting a dramatic change and fast one at that to drier weather, I hope for coldies sake the final frames of the Ecm 00z don't verify or gain cross model support, for I cannot see temps plummeting anytime soon after this.

 

If we are not going to have cold snowy weather, I would take that chart with both hands - gorgeous summer-like synoptics (albeit happening in February).

 

And, there is a chance of somthing colder down the line...

Edited by mulzy
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Looking at the upstream pattern NCEP suggest a slow change to a more amplified set up over the USA, this will slow down the eastwards progression of low pressure into the UK:

 

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LOWER 48FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY AMPLIFY AS BROADLY DEFINED BY A MEAN MID-UPPERLEVEL ERN PAC/WRN US RIDGE AND EAST-CENTRAL US MEAN TROUGH.  THISSEEMS REASONABLE DOWNSTREAM OF EXPECTED EAST-CENTRAL/NERN PACIFICTROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND WATER VAPOR TRENDS.

 

This is likely to lead some sharper low pressure with more dig south in the Atlantic, this would give some credence to the ECM operational run, I think given the dire weather of recent months anything drier even if its average or mild will be welcomed.

 

Of course this type of set up can though develop some decent WAA further north so I wouldn't completely rule out a build of high pressure near the UK transferring slowly further north if troughing in the Atlantic can remain far enough to the west, so with this trend there is still a small chance that you could advect some colder air in from the ne or east.

 

Overall though I think the main issue is seeing an end to the monsoon, so lets hope that we do get a change for the final part of the month.

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Theres every chance Jesus..

Tue/Wed is looking wintry, I said earler the local Councils have been informed. Could very well be disruptive over high ground 150m +.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Hello spring..

 

Posted Image

 

Finally signs that the tap will be turned off, perhaps we can repeat March 12.

Need that to verify, great chart

Edited by JK1
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The type of pressure build from the ECM would probably bring more in the way of frost than we have been currently experiencing. Yes given the flow from the south the daytime highs would probably be double figures quite widely, but you would get a large diurnal range as the flow would quite likely bring clear skies if we get winds coming up from Spain as opposed to around the Azores region.

February 2008 is a good example where some places reached the mid-teens during the day but experienced widespread frosts at night.

 

I was just thinking the same, at least that setup could produce frosts for cold fans, which have been incredibly rare so far this winter. I can count the number of air frosts here since November on one hand. Many days in February 2008 started with frost (some hard frosts) but then warmed up into the mid teens. I recall some 18C+ diurnal ranges here during that month. 

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The type of pressure build from the ECM would probably bring more in the way of frost than we have been currently experiencing. Yes given the flow from the south the daytime highs would probably be double figures quite widely, but you would get a large diurnal range as the flow would quite likely bring clear skies if we get winds coming up from Spain as opposed to around the Azores region.

February 2008 is a good example where some places reached the mid-teens during the day but experienced widespread frosts at night.

 I always thought high pressure from the south would mean mild night too seeing as it coming from south which is much warmer. Interesting 

Edited by JK1
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Looks like wet conditions continuing and with temps becoming milder than average over time

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

No sign of any wintry end to the month in the ENS.

 

Not forgetting it is pretty wintry in a fair few places beforehand however, Purga. Posted Image Granted, no SNOWFEST and entrenched cold but at least something more seasonal, apart from the incessant rain on the other occasions.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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So, if March is traditionally the month where the Atlantic comes back to life (March winds) that seems to be a bit of a scary thought? Surely the storms couldn't get any worse, could they???

The Atlantic is generally dead from Feb to June.

I always thought high pressure from the south would mean mild night too seeing as it coming from south which is much warmer. Interesting

Depends on the uppers and how dry the air mass is. At this time of year high pressure tends to produce cooler nights.
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The type of pressure build from the ECM would probably bring more in the way of frost than we have been currently experiencing. Yes given the flow from the south the daytime highs would probably be double figures quite widely, but you would get a large diurnal range as the flow would quite likely bring clear skies if we get winds coming up from Spain as opposed to around the Azores region.

February 2008 is a good example where some places reached the mid-teens during the day but experienced widespread frosts at night.

 

This is the point where I disagree with the Metoffice , they hint at a pressure rise , but also say temps recovering to above average . Any kind of pressure build in Feb will likely result in something Colder even if it is only surface Cold. 

 

Just to add to that , following the 850's on the ensembles do not tell the whole story when it comes to Winter pressure rises , you can have +5 uppers and -2 surface temps with Freezing fog. .

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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So, if March is traditionally the month where the Atlantic comes back to life (March winds) that seems to be a bit of a scary thought? Surely the storms couldn't get any worse, could they???

 

This is normally associated with the general northwards movement but also weakening of the jet. Though, the jet is now where I would expect it to be in March so unless it dives south we may be looking at something more settled as March progresses. Looking back at past unsettled Februaries, at least by the middle of March, things have calmed down e.g. 2000, 2002, 2007 and 2011. Though as many have pointed out, it's almost pointless trying to link this year to any past year as in one way or another, each year is different.

 

Back to the models: both the GFS and ECM continue the unsettled theme this week but with differences. GFS throws another SW-of-Ireland low into the mix midweek which would bring another windy spell (though not quite as bad as recently) whereas the ECM keeps a more straightforward westerly flow with hints of a change into w/c 17th. Both however maintain average to just below average temperatures so certainly nothing mild.

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