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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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Another change of track for the low on Thursday but a no less worrying wind profile especially for the SW.

post-6751-0-78320800-1391811567_thumb.gi

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Wow! Even the hi-res says yes! Posted Image

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image
 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Wow! Even the hi-res says yes! Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

hopefully fergie can give us a positive update snow wise later!

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Wow! Even the hi-res says yes! Posted Image

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

 

Dew points seem a bit high for the majority of england and wales for any snow. Scotland looking good and their mountains continue to be buried.

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I found some good news, by the end of the month and into early march, the trend is for less unsettled weather, just another 3 weeks of our current wet and windy spell to endure.

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Cant see it happening myself. Derbyshire peaks and Pennines will always get the snow and then leeward from this (anywhere E and lower elevated) will see normal cold rain. Sorry if I'm being a pessimist, its just being honest!

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I rather doubt Ian is too interested in potential snowfall next week when large parts of his forecast region are disappearing under water!Just as we look for extremes re cold, heat, the wettest winter for more than 250 years seems to be passing many posters by without appreciation that from a meteorological perspective, this is a far bigger deal than dec '10 or, dare I say it, perhaps anything any of us have witnessed in our lifetimes ( perhaps those who can recall winter '47 or '63 have a case to disagree).

2013 /14 winter is not a patch on '63 I can assure you which gave me a serious snow & cold addiction for life but significant and noteworthy in a different way.

No mention of any snow in METO forecasts going out to Tuesday - "Becoming wet and windy again Tuesday." for pretty much all areas.

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Bit hard to pin down the detail for next week but as been mentioned, it could be turning a little chillier and we may see the term "wintry showers" coming into the forecasts more! Certainly the potential for some convective weather appearing. 

 

Still uncertainty whether a deep low will develop or not but it looks less likely(at least what the ECM has been showing) this will occur basing on today's runs at least however unfortunately there is still plenty of more rainfall in the outlook. Perhaps signs that things might get slightly more amplified in the Atlantic, nothing significant but it could just reverse the wet trend to some extent. 

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2013 /14 winter is not a patch on '63 I can assure you which gave me a serious snow & cold addiction for life but significant and noteworthy in a different way.No mention of any snow in METO forecasts going out to Tuesday - "Becoming wet and windy again Tuesday." for pretty much all areas.

In fear of dragging the thread way off topic but how is it not a patch on '63? Surely a 1 in 250 year occurrence re rainfall makes it at least equal ?? None of us is likely to see a winter as wet as this one again in our lifetimes?
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Esp. All the time EC32 indicated that mean troughing over and over, again and again, another good call from this model.

 

Whilst it deserves the critique for the ramplified op runs, the medium range model delivered the solution we have encountered time and again. It didn't want to let go of that vortex drain from the parent Canadian mean trough.

 

Ugly Winter !

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Good morning all.

 

I see ECM Op predictably went off on one again from the mid point yesterday evening - there must be a reason for this and I have only noticed it since the model was updated.

Anybody else care to comment?

Let's see if it does the same yet again this morning but here are yesterdays ECM ensembles.

 

Posted Image

 

To this mornings runs then.

Both GFS and UKMO make less of any potential storm around the 11th but there is little agreement about the way things will shake out so don't bank it being the same on this evenings runs and they both still have it wet and windy.

That said the UKMO is quite a chilly run and certainly potential for wet snow to lower levels, especially in the North and west, if it were to verify.

GFS though has a more complex trough mixing out the cold air. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Longer term GFS has a weak Atlantic ridge which forces low pressure further North from around mid month, allowing the Azores high to ridge in.

Reasonably settled thereafter, more especially in the South so even though it is n't cold it would be welcome.

 

Posted Image

 

 

GFS ensembles.

 

Quite a chilly control run from mid month which does have some support.

The ensembles are fairly evenly split between three basic patterns and all pretty much hinge on the strength of the any Atlantic ridge and whether the jet buckles or splits;

 

The first is a continuation of the unsettled weather with little to no resistance from any ridge.

 

The second is in the Op's camp with a ridge being toppled but low pressure being sent further North allowing the Azores high to ridge in and give fairly mild but thankfully settled weather though with perhaps some frosts.

 

The third cluster is in the controls camp with a stronger ridge and some undercutting allowing some form of colder East flow with a weak block to our NW/N/NE and the pattern remaining fairly amplified. This would bring the coldest weather of the winter though no big freeze and remaining rather unsettled.

 

I will post an example of all 3 potential patterns from mid month below in the order as above.

 

No ridge, staying unsettled.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Toppling ridge, More settled, generally mild.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Stronger ridge, undercut, colder interludes possible.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS Ensemble graphs;

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=236&y=41

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=291&y=121

Edited by Mucka
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Certainly no sign of an Atlantic ridge on ECM and going for option 1 (In spades). I will reserve judgement until I see the ensembles but hopefully it is wrong.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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If I lived in the southwest I would get praying that the Gfs 00z op run has picked up a trend for high pressure to finally get a chance to build in later this month, they deserve a chart like this with the misery they are still going through!

post-4783-0-97956000-1391841890_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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The impression I get from this morning's Gfs 00z op run is the prolonged very unsettled / stormy pattern we have been locked into for the last few months will have finally run it's course and in a few weeks time it will be all over bar the shouting, not settling down necessarily but more chance of high pressure building in from the south west and possibly gaining a foothold, at least for the south of the uk. This run also shows rather colder weather next week with a higher risk of snow across hills as far south as southern england and to lower ground further north at times with more in the way of ice and overnight frosts. 

Edited by Frosty.
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Am I allowed to describe this morning's runs as a total mess? We've seen lots of low pressure dominated runs this winter but none moreso than these. In particular, the UKMO and ECM have so many lows of varying intensity, it's hard to keep count. Wind potential again anything from near hurricane force to a stiff breeze, absolutely no continuity at all after about T48 (though Tuesday's storm not a worst case scenario - for now). I fear that whatever the windspeeds, there'll be plenty more rain (and yes occasional snow in places).

Best hope long-term is GFS with a little amplification by T192, and possibly something a bit drier/colder countrywide as the trough finally clears east. TBH this has been hinted at for days so it must be a credible option.

Edited by rjbw
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Are the models still showing a snow event between 72 and 96 hours??

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Are the models still showing a snow event between 72 and 96 hours??

Through gritted teeth and not for the first time this"winter",the 850s are getting modified as we get closer.Still the 12zs.All model output is different in the close range never mind the longer.

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Am I allowed to say there are loads of people looking through the various models at the moment who really gave up giving a monkey's about any sort of cold weather...unless it's dry! The usual entertainment value of find the cold spell left on a bus of desperation a couple of weeks ago....now I'm just looking for a period of weather when I'm and hundreds of others are not having to dry out walls and floors twice a week. It is getting scary now. I just want to bring a reality check to some.

Good on you looking for a dry spell in the model output but I for one do not need a reality check and will continue to hunt for cold.

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Good morning. Here is the latest production of the output of the NWP suite for the midnight outputs on Saturday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a very deep Low close to Northern Ireland drifting slowly north over Scotland through the next 24 hours before filling slowly on Monday. The weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales with some disruption in exposure. There will be showers or spells of rain too, some heavy and thundery with hail, sleet and snow possible over the hills. The showers will die down along with the winds on Monday to give a quieter day overall with showers restricted to the West and North. On Tuesday a further Low pressure looks to be moving in on  a slightly more Northerly trajectory keeping the very strongest winds towards the NW while all areas see another spell of rain followed by showers.
 
GFS then takes us into midweek with a nasty disturbance running East close to the South with heavy rain and possible local gales before the trend later in the week for continued unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather as Low pressure areas park to the NW of the UK with a broad SW flow across all areas. Then through next weekend winds are shown to veer NW with wintry showers for a time before something of a North/South split develops with the North seeing further rain at times as troughs cross East while the South sees a lot of dry and bright weather close to High pressure to the South giving some welcome relief to those flooded areas towards the SW.
 
The GFS Ensembles show a wet week to come before a reduction in rainfall amounts is shown as Low pressure migrates slowly North to allow longer dry periods between the bouts of rainy weather. Temperatures stay largely as they are with some members going for something rather milder in the South later.
 
UKMO this morning is very poor with Low pressure again shown to be poised close to the West and SW with another spell of gales and rain hitting the UK next Friday following an unsettled couple of days before with showers for most.
 
GEM remains unrelenting in the passage of Low pressures across the Atlantic and over the UK with rain and gales still featuring for all areas with heavy rain too at times giving rise to further flooding problems.
 
NAVGEM today keeps a deep Low pressure complex to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances running East in the Westerly flow, affecting mostly Southern areas with more prolonged rainfall between the frequent showers maintained elsewhere.
 
ECM too shows a very unsettled and potentially stormy end to next week as another powerful storm system crosses over on Friday. thereafter there is a slight suggestion that the position of the depressions will shift a couple of hundred miles further North but conditions at the surface will remain volatile with wind and rain featured highly though the heaviest rain and strongest winds may favour the NW rather than SW with time.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that in 9 and 10 Days time the bias from the ECM ensemble group today is still an unsettled one for the UK but the bias shifts the core of Low pressure much more to the NW of the mainland with a more mobile pattern of rain followed by showers of the less disruptive kind looking more likely with the NW seeing the most rainfall by then but unfortunately still some for all.
 
 
The GFS Jet Stream Summary is for the flow to continue unabated for another week or so across the Atlantic then East over France and Spain. Through the second week the flow is shown to buckle north over the Atlantic finally breaking down the pattern that has afflicted Southern Britain for so long with something rather drier very possible then.
 
In Summary there is still a suggestion of a possible easing of conditions after next week mostly according to GFS and some of it's ensemble members as the Jet weakens and buckles North to the West. However, there seems little change to recent pattern from the likes of GEM, UKMO or NAVGEM in their end frames but ECM does show a slight shift North of the pattern towards the very end of it's run too. So another very wet and potentially stormy week to come before the trend towards the very worst of the weather to shift towards the North with time while the South sees something rather less extreme to a rather more traditional Atlantic Westerly is my prognosis this morning. Let us hope that High pressure can build North from Europe or the Azores to give much needed relief down here from recent events and hope that is not just a false dawn to be downgraded as it slips into the more reliable time frame.
Edited by Gibby
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I can't make head nor tail of the models this morning. 

 

I selected + 96 and ran through all the GFS runs and I couldn't believe the difference between all 20 at such short range. 

 

the UKMO and ECM even at that range bare no resemblance to one another either...what a mess. 

 

UKMO + 96 

 

Posted Image

 

ECM + 96

 

Posted Image

 

GFS

 

Posted Image

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Are the models still showing a snow event between 72 and 96 hours??

Not today for most .............hoping the latter part of week 2 and into week 3 brings some respite for our soggy country.

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