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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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Nice to see high pressure on GFS tonight after some potential for snow fall in the days before as covered above

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Makes a change after weeks and weeks of rain, floods gales and other chaos, given the high pressure we could see more in the way of frost and fog if conditions were right, and most importantly a very welcome respite for the likes of somerset

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Some Some places could still see some of the white stuff next week according to the ukmo 12z and gfs!!

Agreed,lets see if ECM can follow its 00z colder theme without the Biscay bomb which, unfortunately for many, would bring the main snow threat.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020700/ECM1-120.GIF?07-12

Edited by winterof79

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There is a huge discrepancy between UKMO and GEM 850's at just 72h. I guess GEM cuts off the Westerly flow by having the runner low further North.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

I mentioned this in my post above,most unusual for the UKMO to be on the colder side from GFS and GEM. Usually the more reserved half way house model.

Edited by winterof79
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Shift this pattern 500 miles West and we would be in business!

 

post-2036-0-64470800-1391792432_thumb.pn

 

 

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I mentioned this in my post above,most unusual for the UKMO to be on the colder side from GFS and GEM. Usually the more reserved half way house model.

 

i mentioned this a few days ago. GEM seems unable to model the 850's effectively in the n atlantic in this current setup. i can only assume there is an inbuilt inability for it to accept that a long draw westerly across the ocean can retain low temps at 850 hpa.  all the other models are showing/have been showing low uppers reaching this side of the atlantic on a long sea track off eastern canada but GEM has never shown this. always mixes it out to be around -2c at lowest.

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Not seen a chart like this for a while !!

 

Posted Imageuksnowdepth.png

Not since the last one failed to materialize...Posted Image

And judging by the METS forecast so far that may not either,despite what the output is showing us.Posted Image

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Longer term outlook (15th to 23rd) for precipitation is significantly lower than previous weeks, but before we get to anything potentially drier we have another week of heavy rain to get through in the south and west

 

Posted Image

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The UKMO 120h chart for 850's finally updated and still quite cold so pretty decent wintry potential there. Now I am waiting for the 96h ones to update to see if the North retains any cold air as the storm passes through.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Meanwhile GFS ensembles. Looking through the charts the jury is still out on the Atlantic ridge, it is about 50/50 with some showing a very strong ridge but others showing no ridge at all. We may or may not get something more settled after mid month

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=233&y=40

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=295&y=123

Edited by Mucka
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Subtle hints of a drier pattern emerging, colder as well.

 

An end to the relentless Atlantic onslaught has got to be the first consideration. But a colder end to the month can not be ruled out.

 

Posted Image

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ecm day 5 incoming ................... track looks same as last run. if it deepens more, it will track further n, less it will be further south ..............................

 

EDIT: deepens less and track a tad further south. less of a windmaker but note that none of the models agree with each other re these systems post T96

Edited by bluearmy
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ecm day 5 incoming ................... track looks same as last run. if it deepens more, it will track further n, less it will be further south .............................. EDIT: deepens less and track a tad further south. less of a windmaker but note that none of the models agree with each other re these systems post T96

that is much less deep mate and further south!!snowfall on the northern flank of that low for the lucky few but we all know its gona change a lot between now and then!!
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that is much less deep mate and further south!!snowfall on the northern flank of that low for the lucky few but we all know its gona change a lot between now and then!!

 

shh - purga will be reading this .................................

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Good point Rab Posted Image,  I just tend to post the ENS diag from WZ as they are nice and easy to read and can give a good rough guide as to the likely trends from North to South of the BI. Aberdeen seems to be the only point listed for Scotland so it's not brilliant and of course there will be local variants on the theme.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

 

Posted Image

 

 

Ach well, there is a Highland GEFS profile though

 

Posted Image

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A very zonal and sodden ECM again in line with the other model concensus

 

Posted Image

No sign of any let up in the reliable timeframe and no wintry stuff in sight unless you live in the Highlands LOL

 

EDIT: Didn't want to rock the boat so added the last bit specially for BA ! Posted Image  Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Differences by day 4 on the track of the Tuesday low but looking at the uppers and dew points a good chance of more widespread snow even on the milder GFS around that time.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfs-2-96.png?12

Some -6C air modeled early next week so a decent chance in areas in that colder parcel of air to the north of that low.

It does look a brief burst of Winter though ahead of the next system around Thursday.

 

The main theme though is wind and rain throughout starting with this weekend.

 

Overall they all look horrendous for next week with one low after another coming in with barely a break.

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Bit of a win win here, the storm misses us to the south and we end up in the dominant lows cold flow giving heavy wintry showers, especially in the west.

 

Posted Image

 

Could be our lot though as the northern hemisphere profile looks very poor for our part of the world with the PV barreling around Canada with the other side of the pole seemingly free of any real energy.

 

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I guess we could bank the ECM for the start of next week as it doesn't bring destructive winds and the frontal rain stays mostly south of us. Plus the potential for some snow (especially over higher ground)

I tried to be positive.... honest Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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A very zonal and sodden ECM again in line with the other model concensus No sign of any let up in the reliable timeframe and no wintry stuff in sight unless you live in the Highlands LOL 

Are you sure about that because this the uppers for 96hrs ECM 12z?http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0
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Nice track and depth of Tuesdays Low on the ECM 96/120. Surely a risk of snow for parts of England and Wales. Though no doubt this will change on subsequent runs.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

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The last two posts from Purga and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes

Edited by John Badrick
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The last two posts from Purgs and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes

Well I'm not sure about widespread snow but wintry prospects to me looks more widespread in regards to at least Pennines, Welsh Mountains and the hills of Northern Ireland and Eire going off those uppers on ECM 12z at 96hrs than Purga suggests. Edited by Weather-history
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The last two posts from Purga and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes

Phil 100% , Phil nw will give you a unbiased view of the models , Very knowledgeable person.

Edited by feno13
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Well I'm not sure about widespread snow but wintry prospects to me looks widespread in regards to at least Pennines, Welsh Mountains and the hills of Northern Ireland and Eire going off those uppers on ECM 12z at 96hrs. Also GFS 12z.

We had snow lying on ground when  we got this morning more expected next week........

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Are you sure about that because this the uppers for 96hrs ECM 12z?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

I think with a strong westerly flow that despite decent low 850hPa temps there is so much surface mixing and flow off a mild sea that any wintry precipitation is likely to be very marginal and confined only to the highest hills / mountains.

 

Anyway if a sleety mix were to ensue it would be extremely brief as ECM shows a powerful mild pulse blasting in

Posted Image

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Wet & mild more likely at +240hrs

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The last two posts from Purga and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes

 

Welcome to the Model Output. I'd stick with Phil's informative & unbiased views. You will soon learn who the wums are / those who post to gain a reaction. Just have a look yourself, Tuesday/Wednesday is looking like snow potential the more further north and west you are, and the obvious elevated places, it's clear on the charts, nothing else too it really.

 

It's also quite wise to follow a post which has backup - I.E Charts which correlate to what they are saying. Those who state something without backup are you're usual suspects.

Edited by Glenn W
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Phil 100%

Phil is very knowledgeable to be sure & I'd be delighted to be proved wrong but 'widespread snow' next week? Suggest you don't hold your breath! Posted Image

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