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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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What on Earth is making those LP's deepen to such a crazy extent as they approach Ireland?  944 Mb!!?? You're joking right?  Sadly not.

 

I would say that such solutions are unrealistic and sure to be watered down, but recent experience has suggested otherwise.

 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do have my doubts about the last frame of the FAX output today.

 

Look at this frame:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Unsettled, yes, and wet certainly (for the SE at that particular point in time), but nothing to write home about, but then in just 24hours it morphs into a truly terrifying:

 

Posted Image

 

It's like the UK is a magnet for the lowest pressure on the planet .......permanently.

 

I sincerely hope that the final chart is going to fall short of what happens.  This weekend's weather system is a picnic in comparison.

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What on Earth is making those LP's deepen to such a crazy extent as they approach Ireland?  944 Mb!!?? You're joking right?  Sadly not.

 

I would say that such solutions are unrealistic and sure to be watered down, but recent experience has suggested otherwise.

 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do have my doubts about the last frame of the FAX output today.

 

Look at this frame:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Unsettled, yes, and wet certainly (for the SE at that particular point in time), but nothing to write home about, but then in just 24hours it morphs into a truly terrifying:

 

Posted Image

 

It's like the UK is a magnet for the lowest pressure on the planet .......permanently.

 

I sincerely hope that the final chart is going to fall short of what happens.  This weekend's weather system is a picnic in comparison.

 

good strong jet, warm ish waters, no real barrier to stop them and plenty of mix in temps = perfect conditions for deepening of lows

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Hi been following the weather for years new to the forum is it posible to get winds past 150 miles hour in this county on land with a deeping low as the jetream being very powerful can see it going stronger aswell

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Can someone answer this as i don`t understand?

 

Question from @julesm2211: If the stream stays in its current state, what effect will it have on the spring/summer weather?

Chris answers: When the sun starts heating the northern hemisphere the Jetstream is bound to change position.

 

Why is it bound to change position?  Wasn`t it the same with the jet in 2010 that stayed flat over us to then, so why is summer heating bound to change its position if it didn`t in 2010?

 

Thanks

 

Someone more knowledgeable than me will update you but I believe one of the triggers will be the Rossby waves changing it's length.

 

Also the jet stream "should" change it's direction, generally in Winter the jet stream is at it's furthest point south, then as Spring turns into summer the jet stream heads north as the boundary between cold and warm changes.

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Good god, your weather making news again over here. When is it ever going to give up? Those charts are just mind blowing, week in week out, never ending deluges, no snowflakes or frost in the south. Crazy winter spell in your bog land. Funny enough, although mild here in lowland Europe, massive snowfalls above 1200m, all resulting from your Atlantic spin off. 

C

Edited by carinthian
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Hi been following the weather for years new to the forum is it posible to get winds past 150 miles hour in this county on land with a deeping low as the jetream being very powerful can see it going stronger aswell

 

Looks like we're about to find out. Posted Image

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Very disappointed with the charts today. Although never the form horse I had felt an opportunity might have come mid / late Feb for some of the white stuff, but I think that window is closing quickly now.

 

My first snowless winter is now looking strongly odds on which is astonishing for a country at our latitude.

 

Ensembles are very poor as well. The only comfort really is that over time we look like reverting to  traditional zonal pattern with everything whizzing west to east at breakneck speed. Although hardly a dry pattern it should pull the rainfall amounts to something less extreme. I'd have thought its inevitable that pressure will build to our SE in the longer term.

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06z ensembles show something less wet than of late developing for the 2nd half of this month across the UK

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Will be interesting to see what the 12z ensembles show later on

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Just wondering where the widespread snow is this morning?

 

Above average spreads from North to South

 

 

 

And of course lots & lots of rain.Posted Image

 

seeing as its february, i expect average uppers will deliver snowfall to some places and more especially higher ground and the north.  clearly we have lost the very low heigths countrywide from the op run 12z tuesday which now sees the south especially seeing much less chance of any snowfall. as they say, pride comes before a fall and i know you are only prodding in jest.  i did note this mornings op from ecm sharpened up the gradient between the cooler uppers in the north and the plus zero ones as the troughs make further headway north. that is what has got winter of 79 interested as he sits 500 feet up in beautiful w yorks !!

 

going further and this mornings extended ecm ens mean reveals a couple of talking points - a much weaker atlantic jet and a shallow upper greeny ridge of sorts. that could see a more pronounced track nw/se of depressions. ecm again has a much more agressive west european low anomoly.  it doesnt really matter which model is your favoured one - they all retain a low anomoly near the uk for the next two weeks.

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Looks like we're about to find out. Posted Image

 

It's not impossible, but very doubtful, we have never had over 150mph in lowland UK - High ground record stands at 173mph at Cairngorms with the lowland speed in Aberdeenshire at 142mph.

 

This system at the weekend, i'll be surprised if it goes over 105mph. More around 80-90mph.

 

Posted Image

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Just had a look at the outputs and really the dreadful weather shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Amongst the stalemate theres a lot of uncertainty with low pressure development on the southern flank of the upper trough.

 

The ECM is shocking at T120hrs, its even making me feel nervous down here although the ensembles have a wide variety of options at that timeframe. The models can't even decide on the track of the earlier low which runs across Iberia, so hopefully that horror low will get downgraded.

 

I think we're seeing the full effects of the southwards extend of some colder air engaging much warmer conditions and so much depends on when these interact and this is proving very difficult to forecast.

 

For those still harbouring hopes of seeing some snowfall, a few marginal possibilities but no sign of any major change in the overall pattern.

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Latest JMA for week 3-4 takes us to the second week of March and like the LR CFS, there appears to be no relenting with the Atlantic zonal flow:

 

post-14819-0-24310300-1391781158_thumb.p

 

The EC32 mean out to the end of the month... 

 

post-14819-0-53368400-1391781304_thumb.p

 

There is nothing to suggest that this train of Atlantic lows is about to end and therefore little sign of a more wintry setup.

 

Hopefully we get a nice Spring.

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Good god, your weather making news again over here. When is it ever going to give up? Those charts are just mind blowing, week in week out, never ending deluges, no snowflakes or frost in the south. Crazy winter spell in your bog land. Funny enough, although mild here in lowland Europe, massive snowfalls above 1200m, all resulting from your Atlantic spin off. C

Big snow totals in the Highland ski resorts aswell. Much more to come throughout the next week it would seem!

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What on Earth is making those LP's deepen to such a crazy extent as they approach Ireland?  944 Mb!!?? You're joking right?  Sadly not.

 

I would say that such solutions are unrealistic and sure to be watered down, but recent experience has suggested otherwise.

 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do have my doubts about the last frame of the FAX output today.

 

Look at this frame:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Unsettled, yes, and wet certainly (for the SE at that particular point in time), but nothing to write home about, but then in just 24hours it morphs into a truly terrifying:

 

Posted Image

 

It's like the UK is a magnet for the lowest pressure on the planet .......permanently.

 

I sincerely hope that the final chart is going to fall short of what happens.  This weekend's weather system is a picnic in comparison.

 

Essentially lows at the moment are being allowed to draw moisture all the way from the Azores, this convergence of tropical moisture and cold air is fueling rapid deepening. If we accept that zonality will not end then for a more N/S split we need to be looking for pressure building over the Azores.

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No posts on this evenings output yet? I guess everyone is afraid to look.

GFS has been the least keen to have a severe storm track to our South or over central regions around the 11th and thankfully continues that this evening, one down...

 

Posted Image

 

Maybe I spoke too soon, GFS comes up with another nasty looking runner low just one day later instead. If that hits the Scot's will get their independence from the rest of United Kingdom, just not in the way they imagined. 

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Spoke too soon Mucka! GFS T126 has a dangerous storm over the whole UK. Still clearly big uncertainty over if/when/where but a equally big risk remains

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Spoke too soon Mucka! GFS T126 has a dangerous storm over the whole UK. Still clearly big uncertainty over if/when/where but a equally big risk remains

 

Yup, had to reach for the edit button after I posted.

 

UKMO still looking rough for the 11th. Looks like this is going to take some nailing down.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka

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And similiar from the UKMO at T96;

post-12721-0-80066400-1391790268_thumb.j

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And similiar from the UKMO at T96;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

 

Yes but a different storm. It certainly highlights the potential for something nasty to develop next week from a runner low spawning off the main trough though.

 

Incidentally, that is a cold westerly UKMO sets up on the 10th so the potential for something wintry still there in the NW

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Several chances at snow events in the coming week

UKMO 72z says snow for the lucky ones

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020712/UW72-7.GIF?07-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020712/UW72-594.GIF?07-17

GFS a day later.... for once not as progressive getting lower 850s in

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfs-2-96.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfs-1-96.png?12

and more Thurs/Fri but that will no doubt change vastly

The former events have been consistantly modelled recently.

METO may indicate over the weekend once the major threat is gone.

Edited by winterof79
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Some Some places could still see some of the white stuff next week according to the ukmo 12z and gfs!!

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Gfs keeps trending cold in FI very unusual for a model renown for default zonal in the extended.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfsnh-1-384.png?12

I think most would take a chart anywhere near that whatever your preference.

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There is a huge discrepancy between UKMO and GEM 850's at just 72h. I guess GEM cuts off the Westerly flow by having the runner low further North.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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