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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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Well almost everywhere you look there's trouble. GFS and ECM now have at least two storms looking very bad for next week, and tomorrow's storm doesn't look too clever either. The storm for Tuesday may slip south - I wouldnt want to say 'luckily' as it would simply mean someone else gets the trouble instead e.g. Northern France - still too far out to pin down the exact path. Certainly when Ian F said these were 'almost unprecedented' times, next week really does look like that now.

Only glimmer of hope is the UKMO which keeps the pattern slightly further back west and hence the really severe stuff back out at sea.

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I think its pretty clear that we're likely to see a colder end to Feb especially from the 3rd week onwards. Over the next few days this will be highlighted in the SLP ensembles because I feel confident iceland will have a higher SLP mean for the period in question compared to Lisbon. I say this because its obvious to me we're going to start to see pressure increasing to our N with LP systems taking a much more S,ly track.

 

Some will wonder what im talking about but when it comes to forecasting using the models you will always see large scatter in F.I. Now the trick has always been knowing which is more likely to be correct. Sadly some people prefer to stick to a closer timeframe and allow the models to do the forecast for them. This is not forecasting in my opinion which is why I have the highest regard for Steve Murr because he does use his forecasting instincts.

But if people had the opposite view, they would be shot down by dozens of people on here. I'm sorry but the signal is a red herring here as the models at the troposheric level struggle to accurately portray the downwelling of the strat warming. As many on the strat thread have said, the warming caused a temporary split for which it's effects lower down are not playing ball to remove the Canadian lobe of the tropospheric vortex, for which it's mere existence means a flat mobile westerly jet is more likely to be the outcome as opposed to an amplified Atlantic and any blocking which helps the UK. 

Take this day 9 ECM operational chart

Posted Image

Taking any detail is worthless here but compare the Canadian/Greenland region with previous runs and ensembles. Simply put that massive, dominating lobe of polar vortex was not present to such an extent as it is now. It's not going away and still looks pretty strong compared to output over the last week which tried to remove this. 5 days ago the 2 storms now forecast for next week didn't exist with a slacker calmer pattern showing over the UK, which is now being shown to be wrong.

I hate being the ghost at the feast but this is how I feel about where we are going. Best shot of any wintryness is from the westerly in any significant polar maritime flows.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Words fail me (well almost)

 

This for a + 120 chart !!

 

Posted Image

 

and the GFS isn't a million miles away either.

 

Normally when this sort of pressure system gets modeled to run through the NW Tip of France, it gets modeled further and further south on subsequent runs and looses intensity so by the time it actually comes to pass it's not as bad as it once looked and the UK ends up on the rainy side !!

 

But what made me stand up and pay attention to this was the UKMO + 120 chart, which has the entire thing well north of the UK and much more inflated. 

 

Posted Image

 

If you was to take these 2 models and say that the system ends up in between them, the whole of the South of the UK would be in the firing line. 

 

I await the 06 and 12 z runs with baited breath, but wouldn't be surprised to see this fall in line with the UKMO prognosis, which itself bodes bad news in particular for the rain.

 

Incredible weather, this country will grind to a halt if this continues into April, which as we all know is notorious for being wet !!!!

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Looks like rain and more rain to me, the deep low Saturday looks really bad and the models are persisting with the idea of another nasty feature mid week, track and intensity still up in the air. No sign of a proper cold spell before the end to Feb, although some will see some snow. Certainly the METO who have been excellent all winter only see a zonal month ahead. It’s all very well being good at interpreting how the synoptics could develop outside of what the models are showing it’s a great skill, unfortunately real events keep kicking any ideas of a pattern change into touch. What happens most of the time is that broadly speaking the models are better than they are given credit for. Look at this winter the models have never really gone for a cold spell in any meaningful way and they have turned out to be right. Personally I won’t write off the possibility of a cold spell for a good few weeks yet, last year proved that but I would put a small sum on us not seeing anything of real note cold wise this month and then hope I’m wrong.

Edited by weather eater

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Words fail me here, southern England and Northern France would be in big trouble here.

 

rain for us and wind for them. no doubt the track will continue to be adjusted

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Even the ducks have had enough rain now and are quacking in protest but these charts will ruffle more feathers during the next 10-15 days with a seemingly endless supply of vigorous depressions taking aim at the uk, at least it won't be mild.

 

Is there a bright side to all this carnage?...no..but at least today brings brief respite with a relatively drier and brighter day and less windy but again it's only the calm before the next storm with more heavy rain and strengthening winds sweeping in from the southwest and as if that's not bad enough, tomorrow brings severe gales and bands of heavy showers, especially to the areas worst affected with more huge waves and winds gusting to 60, 70 & 80 mph, on sunday it will be windy and showery but not as bad as saturday...however, it looks like even more stormy weather is on the way next week.Posted Image

post-4783-0-94124100-1391759646_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-71520600-1391759662_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-08480100-1391759690_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.

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Some posters will continue to say cold is on the way, and in normal circumstances you never do know with the weather, but this winter is a one off, with that rampant PV we may just have to accept that the status quo will remain for the rest of the month. Certainly the charts show no wintry spell out till the 17 Feb ,with very flat patterns:

 

GFSpost-14819-0-35245700-1391758562_thumb.p  GEM: post-14819-0-26083200-1391758574_thumb.p ECMpost-14819-0-47383600-1391758586_thumb.g

 

Of course cooler air may pay us a visit, it is February so that would be run of the mill stuff. However rain and wind remain the outlook for the medium term. The London Ens have a cooler week from D3 till D6 and then a return to average (London): 

 

post-14819-0-17846400-1391758723_thumb.g

 

Its about 60% zonal - 40% some temporary height rises UK area at the end of FI but again little of note with respect to a HLB trend so no prolonged wintry spell showing for the last few days of the month. The mean, as has been the GEFS trend of late is for the PV to return from its travels, and park itself back over E Canada:

 

post-14819-0-81218100-1391758964_thumb.p

 

It does look like any blocking will be from March at the earliest and that month remains fluid though CFS mean suggests much of the same:

 

post-14819-0-70195100-1391759689_thumb.p   The PV gets lost in April.

 

Next eight days rainfall totals are severe for the west and SW: post-14819-0-35209800-1391759828_thumb.g

 

Tomorrow's GFS mean chart for the storm: post-14819-0-47431700-1391759901_thumb.p  Takes a day to clear the country.

 

The others incoming and the Control has dartboard lows:  post-14819-0-53930300-1391760100_thumb.p post-14819-0-88271600-1391760112_thumb.p

 

Neverending.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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rain for us and wind for them. no doubt the track will continue to be adjusted

Quite possibly rain BA but depends on your locale

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/140207_0000_126.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020700/ECU0-120.GIF?07-12

 

As you say though will definately change before then.

 

Massive differences in ensemble snow chances between london and Norhern districts as one would expect

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014020700/graphe3_1000_262_28___.gif

Im dreaming has posted the London equivalent above.

Edited by winterof79

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Quite possibly rain BA but depends on your localehttp://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/140207_0000_126.pnghttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020700/ECU0-120.GIF?07-12As you say though will definately change before then.

I did check the track on vedeur and i missed the possible lee norwesterly over the sw. That apart, this particular op ecm doesnt look too bad for wind re that system for the uk.And as far as you are concerned in the hills, most definitely white. Infact this op run increases the chances of snowfall in the north of the uk through next week. Edited by bluearmy

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I did check the track on vedeur and i missed the possible lee norwesterly over the sw. That apart, this particular op ecm doesnt look too bad for wind re that system for the uk.And as far as you are concerned in the hills, most definitely white. Infact this op run increases the chances of snowfall in the north of the uk through next week.

Yes it is a cooler run than the 12z but i do not put much faith in verification this winter as we usually get a blend of the UKMO.I can but hope.

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This is now a serious candidate for the most dismal winter in history. Nothing on the models to suggest anything but more of the dire, monotonous, rubbish we have endured since November.

Fascinating it is not - depressing it certainly is.

 

I would say a bit of both! Fascinating as in how the pattern has been locked in for so long, and how strong the jet has managed to get (record levels I believe?), and the records for the amount of wind, and the records for wave heights off the South West. It's been compelling viewing for all the wrong reasons, just hope that at some point in the next few weeks we get the other side of the coin, a nice sunny dry spring would go down lovely! Posted Image

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rain for us and wind for them. no doubt the track will continue to be adjusted

Just wondering where the widespread snow is this morning?

 

Above average spreads from North to South

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

And of course lots & lots of rain.Posted Image

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Just wondering where the widespread snow is this morning?

 

Above average spreads from North to South

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

And of course lots & lots of rain.Posted Image

i do not recall a widespread snow call?

All seems dependant on vicinity really.As i have posted above to try and explain rationallyPosted Image

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This is now a serious candidate for the most dismal winter in history. Nothing on the models to suggest anything but more of the dire, monotonous, rubbish we have endured since November.Fascinating it is not - depressing it certainly is.

 

Yes, very depressing - fascinating too, though. The fact that a beastie of Arctic origin, which normally resides over ice, is allowed south to roam over a vast warm ocean is a notable event in itself - for it to be so for months on end, is remarkable and fascinating from a scientific viewpoint.

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I agree with polar maritime, snow on hills and mountains is a good call, cold rain, gales and flooding to carry on for the majority.

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Just wondering where the widespread snow is this morning?

 

Above average spreads from North to South

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

And of course lots & lots of rain.Posted Image

Perhaps more relevant to show the ensembles for the Highlands rather than Aberdeenshire in a north westerly?

Just something I've noticed, people tend to automatically use Aberdeenshire, regardless of the set up.

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Perhaps more relevant to show the ensembles for the Highlands rather than Aberdeenshire in a north westerly?

Just something I've noticed, people tend to automatically use Aberdeenshire, regardless of the set up.

Good point Rab Posted Image,  I just tend to post the ENS diag from WZ as they are nice and easy to read and can give a good rough guide as to the likely trends from North to South of the BI. Aberdeen seems to be the only point listed for Scotland so it's not brilliant and of course there will be local variants on the theme.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

 

Posted Image

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Can someone answer this as i don`t understand?

 

Question from @julesm2211: If the stream stays in its current state, what effect will it have on the spring/summer weather?

Chris answers: When the sun starts heating the northern hemisphere the Jetstream is bound to change position.

 

Why is it bound to change position?  Wasn`t it the same with the jet in 2010 that stayed flat over us to then, so why is summer heating bound to change its position if it didn`t in 2010?

 

Thanks

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