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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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I guess there is an Atlantic ridge forming, just another storm to add to the 3 pages of storms so far this winter :p

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Is that a slack Easterly flow on the ECM. Uppers playing ball on this run.

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Quite a strong westerly actually,but this run does have several snow chances from 96 hrs on.

 

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Quite a strong westerly actually,but this run does have several snow chances from 96 hrs on.

 

Posted ImageECM1-144.gif

Only reason I said that was due to this change from 120 to 144 on the uppers.

Posted ImagePosted Image.

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Simply that massive scatter develops at that point meaning conditions on the day could be just about anything including the kitchen sink.

Talking of ensemble pressure charts we can see that the mean pressure rises markedly from around mid month so hopefully the weather will quieten down somewhat though it may well still be rather unsettled.

 

 

Shannon Entropy. Or something. Where's Fergie?

Edited by Iceni
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Goodbye Ireland;

post-12721-0-17994900-1391713113_thumb.j

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Shannon Entropy. Or something. Where's Fergie?

Busy doing his day job I'd imagine. :p I think there is a bit of uncertainty in some degree with regards to the track and depth of any low pressure systems next week.However I remember reading something from him a few days ago that a broadly westerly pattern was being signalled into March? (Im not saying this means we are stuck with what we have now until then by the way) Plus it could have changed by now of course... Edited by Chris K

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Not bad JMA run this evening continuing the theme of some possible snow to low levels next week and perhaps more importantly it isn't modelling a significant storm for the 11th.

Quite a chilly run on the whole with a hint at something more amplified to the West at the end of the run but no way to know if that would develop or get ironed out further downstream.

 

11th chilly rather than stormy

 

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End of run amplifying upstream pattern but a rather nasty looking system moving in off the Atlantic

 

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Very wet especially for the south right through until the end of the runs with dead average temps

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Very similar further north but not quite so wet

 

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A few TEITS type runs right at the end but no proper cold or snowy prospects at all. Brief wet sleety mixes doesn't float my boat so I will ignore it although a few seem to relish the thought. Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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ECM 144 12z yesterday, 120 12z today similar or that low further north, apologies on phone, looks bit further north. Was wondering if it would show up. Isobars look tight.

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As BA alluded to in his post,this little runner may spring a few surprises early next week

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVK89.gif?31415

One thing is certain,it will feel much colder from this weekend through until the end of all output so far.

-4 isotherm around most days

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-18 Monday UKMO

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfs-1-120.png?12 Tuesday GFS

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020612/ECM0-144.GIF?06-0 Wednesday ECM

 

This is how we look now  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020612/ECM0-0.GIF?06-0

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Could be some damage if this is true. For a minute I thought it was the jet stream.

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Very wet especially for the south right through until the end of the runs with dead average temps

Posted Image

 

Very similar further north but not quite so wet

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

A few TEITS type runs right at the end but no proper cold or snowy prospects at all. Brief wet sleety mixes doesn't float my boat so I will ignore it although a few seem to relish the thought. Posted Image

In fairness the ensembles are actually a lot more interesting than the simple temp plots show. Some pretty good charts in amongst them. Just run through them at 240, 300 and 384.

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Very wet especially for the south right through until the end of the runs with dead average temps

Posted Image

 

Very similar further north but not quite so wet

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

A few TEITS type runs right at the end but no proper cold or snowy prospects at all. Brief wet sleety mixes doesn't float my boat so I will ignore it although a few seem to relish the thought. Posted Image

A 50/50 chance of -5 to -10 uppers would surely be snow. Looking at the precipitation drop off that shows a possible pattern change. If the Atlantic was to carry on as it is with low after low those spikes would be across the board.

I know it is Aberdeen but at this point in the white coldies winter, that looks good to me.

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the lord giveth Posted Image
 

Gfs continues to give a Snowy Tuesday, noy backing down at all on them 850's

 

 

 
and the lord taketh away at the same time Posted Image
 

Certainly no sign of any snowy cold of any duration in the GFS 12z Op. Yes, the small risk of transient snow on the back end of weather systems but that's it.

 

 

 

Much model chaos at present.

 

Tuesday must be FI and might come down to looking out of the window ??

Edited by stewfox
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I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on into

March. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again why

posters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have already

led many up the garden path this winter.

The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps some

wintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it does

not settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lot

more likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days of

March,

 

PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.

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Evening all :)

 

I thought the GEM 00Z Operational was one of the stormiest for the SE I had ever seen and the 12Z unsurprisingly backs away a little toward the GFS.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020612/gem-0-204.png?12

 

Another unwelcome storm if this verifies.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfs-0-204.png?12

 

GFS Op very different at the same time.

 

ECM is very difficult to follow with its 24 hour steps at times like this.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014020612/J180-21.GIF?06-12

 

JMA brings the feature through a day earlier but still very nasty potentially for the south.

 

No sign whatsoever on tonight's output of anything settled in high-res but there are transient ridges offering 12-18 hours pause between the rain.

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I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on into

March. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again why

posters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have already

led many up the garden path this winter.

The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps some

wintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it does

not settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lot

more likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days of

March,

 

PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.

 

 

so a week later than you though a few days ago?

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I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on intoMarch. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again whyposters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have alreadyled many up the garden path this winter.The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps somewintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it doesnot settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lotmore likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days ofMarch, PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.

Hi CC,other than the strat,trop feedback......what other aspects of the models at the moment are leading you to believe that late Feb,early March snow prospects have increased?
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If you have a look at the latest rainfall radar, you will see a lot of Squall lines in the making, some interesting weather ahead albeit more unwanted rainPosted Image

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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I think the chances of snow on Tuesday are likely to be toned down and replaced by an increased risk of damaging gales and flooding, as the depression responsible for the chilly westerly incursion has been toned up on tonight's models (especially the ECMWF) which means more influence from a warm depression core.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140206/12/ecmt850.120.png

Tonight's ECMWF run is probably overblowing the low somewhat (uncharacteristically so, normally it tends to be the GFS that does this) but while I had previously been watching out for stormy winds next Wednesday/Thursday, there is a chance that Tuesday could be the day of the monster low.  We have a vicious low coming our way for Saturday of course, and that is pretty near certain to happen IMHO.

 

The 8-14 day NOAA outlook has had the area of maximum negative 500hPa anomaly transferring slowly eastwards and tonight's update has it on top of the British Isles:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

This implies a continuation of very unsettled conditions with low pressure in charge and rain belts at intervals.  Temperatures probably won't be far from the long-term average because of the emphasis on cyclonic conditions rather than mild south-westerlies, so at present, while it doesn't look like being snowy, we don't appear to be staring down the barrel of a very mild type of wet February like those of 1990, 1997 and 2002.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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so a week later than you though a few days ago?

So he is not allowed to change his forecast? even the pros @ the meto  change theirs on a week to week basis??

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I just don't buy it to be honest. The cold spell of early Feb has turned into a washout and the next week which was supposed to offer a cold and slack pattern now looks set to produce yet more rain and severe gales. Whilst we are seeing effects on the troposphere by this warming, the fact remains that we cannot shift the Canadian sector far enough away or destroy it full stop to really get any benefit with the upstream pattern remaining fairly flat and mobile resulting in more depressions heading straight for the UK. 

ECM ens still show an unsettled picture but with a weakening of the jet in week 2, but we had this last week.......

Posted Image

The fact the blob over Canada still exists by this time is not encouraging to me at all.

 

As an aside I must apologise for the rather grumpy posts recently, I have to admit that I despise Autumnal weather and frankly the winter output has infuriated me and frankly part of me just wants Spring to arrive and end this 6 month spell of Autumn we have received.

Not much PV left Matt on that chart! This winter is bizarre, anything could happen.

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Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 6th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a Low pressure area tracking NE across Southern England with outbreaks of rain, heavy in places continuing through the night. By morning the Low is shown to move out into the North Sea with a fine interlude developing tomorrow as we lie between pressure systems. Tomorrow evening though shows a new powerful depression sweeping into Ireland from the SW bringing an active set of fronts with it with more gales, heavy rain and increased risk of flooding once more. Following the rain will be severe gales and heavy showers in Westerly winds with coastal defences in the West and South put to the test once more. This windy and showery theme continues through the weekend as the Low responsible drifts to the North of Scotland by Monday.
 
GFS then show the start of next week bright and showery to begin with before the rest of the week sees further troughs and Low pressure systems passing through, each delivering more wind and rain across the UK in average temperatures though perhaps rather chilly in the North at times with hill snow.  Later in the lower resolution part of the run there remains little concrete evidence for improvements with further Low pressure areas passing over the UK with rain and showers separated by short drier interludes. Temperatures never look like straying far from average with little in the way of frost and fog.
 
The GFS Ensembles remain very stable and keeping temperatures close to average with all members keeping very unsettled conditions with rain at times going throughout the period for all areas.
 
UKMO tonight looks disturbing, especially early in the week again as yet another vicious storm system whips across Ireland on Tuesday with a strong and showery Westerly flow on Wednesday with further embryonic systems shown out to the SW for later in the week.
 
GEM remains unrelenting in it's projection of further deep depressions and attendant rain and strong winds crossing the UK in the final days of it's 10 day run with temperatures close to average but cold enough at times for some snow on Northern hills.
 
NAVGEM is awful tonight showing the most powerful storm yet crossing Wales and the Midlands midweek with storm force winds and heavy rain the likely events coupled with storm surges and the like as it tracks ENE before leaving the UK in strong Westerly winds and showers later in the week.
 
ECM tonight takes the early week storm a little further North than it's counterpart models but nonetheless the pattern of heavy rain and strong winds remain the same with the model showing another storm further South at the end of the week before the run ends on a cold and unstable Westerly flow but less strong with showers, wintry on hills.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure still likeely to be in control of the UK weather in 10 Days time with the majority of members indicatig a preference for Low pressure to be close to northern Britain with a Jet flow to the South and pressure over the UK sub 1000mbs. Rain at times would inevitably occur in South or west winds and temperatures near average.
 
 
The Jet Stream Forecast shows little change tonight with a strong flow West to East across the Atlantic and then across Spain or France. there is still some indication of a weakening of the flow through week 2.
 
In Summary there is little to cheer about in tonight's output with seemingly relentless supply of Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic, each having the UK in their sights. As a result there will be copious amounts of rain and wind too at times causing further disruption from both flooding and wind damage through next week in particular. Signs of a quietening of conditions are still just about present within some longer term projections but if anything there seems little or even less support for this aside from a far end low resolution chart at Day 15 from GFS, a slackening pattern in the Day 10 chart (perhaps) from ECM and also hints of a slackening Jet flow in the GFS Ensembles.
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So he is not allowed to change his forecast? even the pros @ the meto  change theirs on a week to week basis??

sometimes on an hourly basis infact!

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