Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[bluearmy]

Was just about to post that, also the ext ens don't look overly promising either. We just can't catch a break atm!

If anything, the extended ECM ens are showing a deeper trough anomoly over the UK. The only positive beng the weakening jet approaching the end of week 2 as the Canadian vortex takes up residence over hudsons and is not so keen on extending a lobe into the n atlantic. It could therefore trend a bit colder though week 2 if the trough grows slack atop the uk although the story is likely to remain the flooding, judging by the gefs/ECM ens.

[cooling climate]

The ECM ens have been very poor this winter as has the ECM op at times. Although that to can

be said for the UKMO and the GFS as well. Amplification to the north and northeast continues to

be the trend for the middle of the month onwards.

Where some get the idea of a southerly tracking jet this winter I have not got the foggiest you only

have to look back through December and January to see this is not so.

[Frosty.]

Wheres our snow!!

On the scottish mountains but it looks like there could be wet snow at times for hills in the south and north during the next few weeks with colder incursions from the north west. The main story is one of flooding and more damaging winds with bouts of torrential rain.

[Mucka]

 

That would be as weak as we have seen the jet this winter I reckon and if it did weaken to that extent we would be unlucky not to see it buckle and the pattern amplify.

 

Edit.

GFS painting quite a cold FI for much of England under a slack trough and eventually cutting off the Atlantic via an Atlantic ridge. I'm sure it will be among the coldest runs of its ensemble set but let's hope it's a trend setter.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

The ECM ens have been very poor this winter as has the ECM op at times..

Presumably thats anecdotal cc? Do the stats back that view up! From watching the extended ens mean and anomolys, my take is that the errors have mainly been in the euro heights and Azores ridging. tbh, I thought they had done pretty well. Naefs seems to have done ok in week 2 but that's likely to be the case as we've stayed fairly mobile. The stats will no doubt show which ens model has done well though the winter.

[Purga]

re the ecm op T144 low - the control has the exact same system, though 5mb shallower @ 970mb .................................

Control & Op in sync then - more significant than random clustering.

[bluearmy]

Control & Op in sync then - more significant than random clustering.

Guess we'll see tomorrow. Certainly at T144, I prefer the higher res of the op to pick out a feature.

[Purga]

A nice end to the 18z

A long, long way off though.

[Jason M]

Meanwhile out in la la land we finally have a cold chart

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

Ensembles have been trending better over the last 24 hours. Nothing overly cold as yet, but the possibility remains.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like being quite wintry further North especially with much lower North Atlantic SSTs leaving sub 528 dam air over Northern UK at times! Nothing exciting for Southern UK unfortunately in the reliable timeframe at the moment.

[dec10snow]

Whilst out in FI, this chart highlights the pattern we may be stuck in for a while, and how extreme it may be... Let's just hope for everyone's sake if doesn't come off

[Mair Snaw]

I see our wonderful Daily Express are at it again....quoting the met office as saying RARE warning that SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TO HIT THE UK THIS WEEKEND... way to go panic the nation you morons.....

[Mucka]

A nice end to the 18z

A long, long way off though.

 

 

Meanwhile out in la la land we finally have a cold chart

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

Ensembles have been trending better over the last 24 hours. Nothing overly cold as yet, but the possibility remains.

 

GFS is cold from day 10 under that slack trough even though the 850's don't look that impressive, the Atlantic ridge and NE flow in deep FI were just a bonus and symptom of a dead Atlantic so not that improbable overall except ECM has decided to reverse roles and ramp up the energy crossing the Atlantic.  We will have to wait and see which is more accurate and although I would usually take ECM 12z over GFS 18z any day of the week I have already expressed my reservations about tonight's ECM run so I will just wait and see how things develop over the next day or two and stay hopeful my initial thoughts last week about a mid Atlantic ridge setting up around mid month were close to correct.

[Mucka]

NAVGEM has managed to come up with something probably worse than ECM - a real horror show. We should all make up and say our goodbyes if this verifies.

 

 

Edit

 

GFS ensembles a real mix once we head into our window of opportunity for a pattern change. There are some terrifying charts continuing the stormy theme and there are charts that suggest a quieter colder pattern setting up - we are surely due a break though?

Here are some contrasting day 10 charts just to show the futility of attempting a forecast based on anything other than balance of probability with a liberal sprinkling of caveats to boot.

 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[Duane S.]

I see our wonderful Daily Express are at it again....quoting the met office as saying RARE warning that SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TO HIT THE UK THIS WEEKEND... way to go panic the nation you morons.....

It was evident over a week ago that this particular storm was going to be very nasty indeed. It's not only how deep this low is but the track it looks like taking. It presents a potentially very serious threat to coastal parts of the UK.

 

Just for once I don't think they are overdoing it here, although yes I do agree, they are complete morons.

[Mair Snaw]

NAVGEM has managed to come up with something probably worse than ECM - a real horror show. We should all make up and say our goodbyes if this verifies.

 

not what i want for my birthday NAVGEM You make keep this present.....after today and then the weekend this is the last thing we need....

[Mucka]

not what i want for my birthday NAVGEM You make keep this present.....after today and then the weekend this is the last thing we need....

 

Yes but luckily we here in the MO thread have the power to bin output and thus it can never happen. 

I declare it binned!

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[Timmytour]

 

I see our wonderful Daily Express are at it again....quoting the met office as saying RARE warning that SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TO HIT THE UK THIS WEEKEND... way to go panic the nation you morons.....

 Saturday is looking very dodgy indeed and it certainly looks like I picked the wrong weekend to plan a trip down to Bognor.I, for one, commend the Express decision to splash this in its usual style. After watching the models over the past few days first suggest it and then firm up on it, I think the "Express treatment" now remains the only hope of preventing it verifying!

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles (Op was pretty much a cold outlier as expected)

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=232&y=35

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=295&y=119

[mike Meehan]

See that the cold patch for Scandi/NW Russia has declined quite a lot over the last day or two - I reckon that our chances of getting a nice easterly cold spell are pretty well scuppered - the only real chances of getting anything much now will be a blast from the north. which usually develop a little after the equinox but that is rarely sufficient for us down in the SE where such blasts rarely amount to much.

 

I reckon the best we can do is to turn out attentions to the 'sun god' now and hopefully 14/15 will be better.

[Gaz1985]

Nothing more to say on the Manchester ens other than wet and temps around average if slightly above at times. 

 

[Mucka]

A bit of an upgrade on how  cold next weeks Westerly will be in this mornings output thus far.

 

 

Further out pretty good consistency from GFS in FI for the UK to sit under a cold slack trough/col 

 

 

Followed by an Atlantic ridge

 

 

Of course others will want to concentrate on what we know is coming, which is more rain and at least one more powerful storm before we get any possible snow interest. It certainly looks rough.

 

Edited February 6, 2014 by Mucka

[AWD]

Worth noting that the GEM has now picked up the potential for something similiar to last nights 12z EC Op (albeit with slight tracking differential which is negligible at this stage);

UKMO looks like it could be going there too;

But flattens it out to some degree by 144hrs;

Definetly in the "one to watch" category though. Will be interesting to see if the 0z EC maintains it.

All this after another storm at the weekend too.

[Snowman.]

As much as I'm sick of this mild stuff seeing it getting colder after this just isn't appealing.

 

0z shows that after the main period of very significant stormy weather passes a colder more blocked pattern begins to emerge now its FI but it not what we're after seeing as we are probably going to see some very severe weather before hand.

 

Flipping from damp and windy conditions to cold conditions won't help anyone as much as I want cold and snow I don't want it coming in at a time where it really isn't going to help conditions in flooded areas. 

Edited February 6, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

GFS  Ensembles.

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=235&y=41

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=287&y=125