Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[IDO]

I'm beginning to lose a little faith in the ECM. It reorganises the PV far more strongly and rapidly than any of the other models and throws in the low from hell on the 11th for good measure. I'm sure it is within the bounds of possibility but this run seems very unlikely to verify me. I'm guessing tomorrow mornings run will look quite different regarding the PV and that low.

 

144 comparison. ECM/GFS/UKMO/GEM/JMA

 

 

 

It has strong support for the GEFS at T144, the mean: 

 

Some nightmare members:

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

The op's slacker flow has a similar amount of support, so two clusters, one continuing the trend of a slack flow, the other, trending, and similar to the ECM's new take on things, delaying that Atlantic breakthrough. It appears that timing with respect to how the block to the east copes with the energy from the Canadian Vortex discharging east will decide if we get one more storm onslaught. Most members then become less volatile. 

 

The end of FI for the GEFS and there is a 15% cluster with potential from an Atlantic ridge to Greenland, but mostly a more restrained zonal flow, with the main cluster suggesting troughing into SE Europe (50%) so the UK again on the wrong side of any potential cooler weather:

 

 

The London GEFS 2m temps suggest that it will feel cool next week before moving towards average. Cooler further north:

 

 

 

After the stormy period ends early next week still no winter wonderland charts showing.

[joggs]

 If Fergieweathers around?, i would like to ask(re the models us mere mortals view), if peeps at Exeter are singing off the same hym sheet,ie, copious amounts of rain with snow depending of the track of vigorous lows?

[chris55]

 If Fergieweathers around?, i would like to ask(re the models us mere mortals view), if peeps at Exeter are singing off the same hym sheet,ie, copious amounts of rain with snow depending of the track of vigorous lows?

 

That sounds about right to me. But im no Met man lol.

[Troubleatmill]

If Fergieweathers around?, i would like to ask(re the models us mere mortals view), if peeps at Exeter are singing off the same hym sheet,ie, copious amounts of rain with snow depending of the track of vigorous lows?

Dont think much has changed since last night Joggs, where he said the MET are aware of the chance for snow to fall next week, even down south.

[Blake]

No mention of the GEM?

 

T-240 but pretty strong Greenie high, heights building across nothern Europe an cold heading our way from the NE from around next Tues/Weds.

 

High pressure heading out of Canada, could link up with Greenland high in time, pretty weak PV I'd say?

 

Of course, in FI but something to keep an eye on.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=1&archive=0

 

[Stuie]

 If Fergieweathers around?, i would like to ask(re the models us mere mortals view), if peeps at Exeter are singing off the same hym sheet,ie, copious amounts of rain with snow depending of the track of vigorous lows?

He may have extra info but nothing that is going to radically alter what every model shows, if you know what I mean.

[bluearmy]

Last two ECM ops have dropped the deeply low heights for next week which led to yesterday evenings musings re snowfall next week. Today's ops have lifted the axis of the trough further north and the heights somewhat with it. those moaning about ECM ops lack of continuity need to think about the timeframe they are looking at. Up to T168, you normally get decent continuity though post day 5 even that can vary. the model is designed to be the best guidance available from T96 thru T144. the depression that tracks to our south at day 5. ECM picked that track first whilst the other models wanted to bring it nearer to the UK, the deep system at day 6 tonight is concerning. I expect the other op models will be playing with this solution tomorrow. Lets hope it's not close to verifying. The ex gulf system which behaves like an ex TD late in the run - that will probably be very different come the next run.

Today's modelling seems somewhere between ECM''s op from yesterday's 12z and the generally less cold output which was shown by the American output yesterday. Seems like a reasonable middle ground. the features will now pop up pre T144 within the 'envelope' and that system at day 6 is exactly that.

in 24 hours, we've gone from wondering if we will see the first reasonable snowfall this winter to thinking about whether our insurance policies cover fallen trees! The saturated ground will not help in this regard. Lets see what the next round of ops bring on tht low and how many ECM members have it at day 5.

[BlueHedgehog074]

20 second model summary - Models, in general, agree with unsettled conditions continuing, with a particularly stormy Low invading the UK this Saturday with strong gusts. The flow looks as though it will back generally from the West, but it looks like a cold looking one with some very cool 850 hPa temperatures getting into the mix at times. This may mean some wintry weather could be possible down to low levels at times as well as hilly areas, especially if the showers or longer spells of precipitation are heavy enough, and especially from any possible secondary lows that track to the South of us. Not much signs for lengthy spells of dry weather to develop with many models showing Lows and troughs being the main feature for the UK. Something has clearly made that Atlantic angry this Winter...

[ANYWEATHER]

If anything the models are stepping up a gear as towards rain and wind [if that's possible!] between now and the weekend. Firstly ,we could see another possibly two inches of rain over southern parts of the Uk during tomorrow ,afternoon and evening....And to add insult to injury .the weekend promises some more stormy conditions. and the coastline to the west and south of the uk will again have a battering...Wave heights on Saturday approaching 14 meters that's around 40 ft according to this chart below....... 

[Gibby]

Good evening everyone. Here is the next instalment of the volatile atmosphere present across the UK at the moment and in the near future as seen by the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM tonight for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue to predict more rain and strong winds over the coming week as further very deep and powerful depressions affect the UK periodically. Today's storm will gradually weaken as it drifts North over the UK with a quieter period of weather for 12 hours or so develops from later tonight. By lunch tomorrow a new depression moves up from the South engaging some tropical air and enhancing the heaviness of the rain which once more moves up across the South and Wales by late afternoon. This rain could well enhance flooding before it clears away NE overnight. Friday is shown to be a bright, breezy and showery day before another storm, similar to today's version moves quickly into the UK later Friday with severe gales and more heavy rain sweeping in overnight and lasting well into Saturday. The weekend then sees the Low slow moving near Northern Britain with a gale Westerly flow with squally showers likely over the UK. Throughout this very active period temperatures will be academic but close to average but it could be cold enough at times in the North for some snow on the hills.

 

GFS shows the opportunity for further spells of rain and showers, heavy and prolonged at times and accompanied by gales as further deep Low pressure moves across from the west at times. Later in the run there is a glimmer of light to report tonight in as much as pressure will be slightly higher and there will be some drier windows between the rain later.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to make for disturbing viewing as there remains little prospect shown by any member of any significant drier spell with further rain on most days under Low pressure areas moving in from the West and SW. Temperatures continue to be programmed to be close to average overall with still little sign of anything colder of note.

 

UKMO closes it's run tonight with an unstable SW flow next Tuesday with showers giving way to more prolonged rain through the day as another active trough swings in from the West.

 

GEM tonight is unrelenting in it's quest to maintain the UK under the grip of Low pressure with a large cold pool of Low pressure over many areas later next week with some powerful deeper Lows near to the warmer air to the South fueling further spells of heavy rain and strong winds.

 

NAVGEM is we hope incorrect tonight but probably entirely feasible in it's projection of a Low crossing England next Wednesday at what would be a near record Low pressure of 945mbs bringing all the disruption and devastation that such a storm could produce before it moves away East but maintaining gales and rain at times.

 

ECM this evening shows further unsettled and wet weather at times next week. It does show a deceleration of the pattern though with longer drier spells between the rain areas through the second half of next week.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show once more that the likely position that the UK will find itself 10 days from now remains much the same with Low pressure influential to the UK weather with a SW flow maintained around low pressure to the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The Jet Stream Forecast remains very concerning as it shows absolutely no sign of weakening in the reliable time frame tonight maintaining it's position west to east over the Atlantic and across France and Spain breeding powerful depressions and storm systems one after another as it speeds across the Atlantic. Even at the far end of the run in two weeks time changes are minimal and unlikely to change anything dramatically over the UK.

 

In Summary the weather remains largely unsettled and potentially stormy at times according to much of tonight's output. There are some encouraging signs of something at least a little drier late next week as the pattern slows and longer drier spells may be encouraged to develop between the depressions. However, such signs are tentative at best and we have been down this road a week or so back before the rug was swept from under our feet so we need to see more consistency spread between the models over the coming days before anyone can become the least bit hopeful. Meanwhile between now and then the pain and misery goes on for those afflicted by floods for some considerable time to come I'm afraid.

[Mucka]

Last two ECM ops have dropped the deeply low heights for next week which led to yesterday evenings musings re snowfall next week. Today's ops have lifted the axis of the trough further north and the heights somewhat with it. those moaning about ECM ops lack of continuity need to think about the timeframe they are looking at. Up to T168, you normally get decent continuity though post day 5 even that can vary. the model is designed to be the best guidance available from T96 thru T144. the depression that tracks to our south at day 5. ECM picked that track first whilst the other models wanted to bring it nearer to the UK, the deep system at day 6 tonight is concerning. I expect the other op models will be playing with this solution tomorrow. Lets hope it's not close to verifying. The ex gulf system which behaves like an ex TD late in the run - that will probably be very different come the next run.

Today's modelling seems somewhere between ECM''s op from yesterday's 12z and the generally less cold output which was shown by the American output yesterday. Seems like a reasonable middle ground. the features will now pop up pre T144 within the 'envelope' and that system at day 6 is exactly that.

in 24 hours, we've gone from wondering if we will see the first reasonable snowfall this winter to thinking about whether our insurance policies cover fallen trees! The saturated ground will not help in this regard. Lets see what the next round of ops bring on tht low and how many ECM members have it at day 5.

 

Side bet for virtual Kudos that low of the 11th is not modelled tomorrow? 

It will make the morning runs just that bit more interesting.

 

Seriously though, it is not about continuity, it is about it picking out an unlikely development for its Op run. Yes the potential for rapid cyclogenesis from a secondary low is there, that is self evident, but we would need to be especially unlucky to have one with such a tight gradient track so far South and land on our door step full force. I'm sure it will be unsettled and windy, perhaps even stormy but nothing exceptional come the day. Such a low pressure system crossing the UK is a rare event. Yes this is a rare winter for storminess but it doesn't necessarily follow the ECM storm of the 11th is more likely to follow - it is one of the less likely solutions IMO and not the more likely as you seem to be implying.

We will see over the next couple of days if I am being too bullish, I hope not because right or wrong we really don't need it.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

Sigh 

February, the sixth month of Autumn.... will it ever end 

For all the storms that have hit so far, we still haven't had what I would call a "violent storm" i.e. F11/F12 ... but if the pattern persists, it may only be a matter of time before something like this actually happens and turns the lights off for all of us.

In its later stages, the ECM has moved the trough slightly north when compared with yesterday and a small cold vortex persists longer over Eastern Canada, although the direct cold feed over Canada is cut off once more. Certainly if a pattern change is to happen, it would take a few more days than was being suggested earlier in the week. It may well be, then, that we have to put up with an upper trough near the UK for a while longer. Not that this scenario discounts snow as either southerly-tracking lows or a north-westerly could produce temporarily - we remain not that far from surprise blizzards over parts of the country

[bluearmy]

Ecm ens spreads show no clustering to support the op run at day 6.

[Purga]

Ecm ens spreads show no clustering to support the op run at day 6.

?? Not far off BA

Op

Mean

The mean isn't going to resolve the intensity of the projected LP is it.

[bluearmy]

?? Not far off BA

Op

Mean

The mean isn't going to resolve the intensity of the projected LP is it.

The spreads show no support for a deep small system at the base of the upper trough - thats why we have speads. Clearly the mean will mute out a system like the op shows.

[johnholmes]

looking 6-14 days ahead and the noaa charts, see below, have not really changed by very much in the last 3 or so issues, much of the same with the hint at coldish upper temperatures remaining for the UK, a 534dm height on the 8-14 over southern UK. Little hope of any major dilution of the mobile and active Atlantic. Obviously much too far ahead to even attempt any surface depths but don't be surprised at further deep lows fairly well south. The diffluent upper pattern near the UK (simply put = flow less strong than further west) and the main speeds south of around 50N acorss much of the Atlantic lead to this comment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[Frosty.]

There is absolutely nothing I would call mild about tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it looks rather cold at times and temperatures no better than average but this is nothing compared to how unsettled it looks with waves of stormy lows piling in from the southwest with further coastal flooding and storm damage for the areas already severely affected. There is no sign of an end to the very unsettled spell, it could go on for many more weeks with the PFJ further south than normal and rampant cyclogenesis dominant, the jet is back into fast and furious december mode. I can see there being lots more amber warnings, COBRA meetings and general misery but I can also see it being cold enough at times for snow across hills with ice and occasional frosts, especially for the north and also a risk of wet snow on lower ground in places due to the southerly tracking jet.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Frosty.

[Nick F]

Ecm ens spreads show no clustering to support the op run at day 6.

 

There is some support from the GEFS for a deep low to cross the UK next Tuesday, though probably only 4 or 5 members.

 

12z EC would probably bring the most destructive winds of the winter so far to England and Wales, just hope it doesn't verify!

[fergieweather]

Dont think much has changed since last night Joggs, where he said the MET are aware of the chance for snow to fall next week, even down south.

 

Correct. Varied mention of snow starting Fri AM in varied detailed assessments (a consistent story for some days now from Exeter) but frankly it's such small beer at the moment versus the overwhelmingly pressing issues of forecast priority around the Amber warnings. So yes, some wintry stuff in UKMO output at varied stages out into weekend, including perhaps as far south as e.g. Salisbury Plain (I haven't got time now to give all the detail) but even a cursory glance just now at the latest high-res modelling for rainfall accumulations Thurs-weekend - plus some scary-looking max gust mapping on 4km output by early Saturday - reinforces where out forecast focus lies. If the wintry element looks problematic, they'll warn for it/emphasise it more in forecasts. But we don't want it (i.e. as it stands) to detract from the more pressing messages the public need.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

_{Currently I am NOT thinking of wintry weather.  This upcoming onslaught is just ridiculous and looking very damaging and dangerous.  I was out in the weather all day today and in the wind and wet it was ruddy freezing.............I need to be warm right now.} 

_{The projection generally looks set...so we have trouble ahead.  We need HP from 'anywhere'.....winter go away......but this one won't.}

_{What is very interesting is the succession of lows travelling so far south, I believe the shift of a southerly jet and a direction into colder climes  has this winter shown acceleration in that direction and the footprint of an LIA as per my sig thoughts is very much upon us.  Yes we haven't been cold, but the NH set up has been somewhat eye opening...especially its longevity inasmuch as we have been in one hell of a rut.}

 

_BFTP 

Edited February 5, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[winterof79]

This should have a nightmare warning written all over it

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020518/gfs-0-72.png?18

[bluearmy]

well the back end of the gem ens mean brings an ever growing euro anomoly high centred adriatic towards the se of the uk with the shrinking trough edging away to our west.  conversely, the gefs have our trough edging to the east of the meridian with euro heights dropping further and the likelihood of it remaining cool/wet/windy.

[bluearmy]

re the ecm op T144 low - the control has the exact same system, though 5mb shallower @ 970mb .................................

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Quite cold air coming in from the west on Monday, GFS 12z also showed this, It probably will downgrade but would not rule wet out snow on monday into tuesday at low levels, settling snow high levels especially in the north and west

[draztik]

re the ecm op T144 low - the control has the exact same system, though 5mb shallower @ 970mb .................................

 

Was just about to post that, also the ext ens don't look overly promising either. We just can't catch a break atm!