Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Eskimo]

Latest NMM, concerning to say the least  

[phil nw.]

Those sniping posts from earlier have been removed.Let's have no more thanks folks.

 

We are working to keep this thread factual and informative for all.

Please help us to do this by keeping on topic.

By all means have your differing views but based on the outputs not preferences-there are other threads for general stuff.

 

Thanks all.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles.

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=235&y=41&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=290&y=124

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS ensembles.

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=235&y=41&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=290&y=124

 

Thanks for those Mucka, no other way than to describe those charts as cool to Average Temperatures by day alongside plenty of wet spells for most of the UK. There certainly should be some snow potential if the timings fall right but as ever, the further North and with elevation on your side you would be best positioned to witness those rarities of wintry snow flakes. For me, as in recent 12z runs there is a broader signal developing now towards something colder in the longer term. Anyone who has not viewed the current UKMO thinking, their forecast is along the same lines too. Quite frankly though, they will rightly be following the near-term events for now, however.

 

Anyone wishing to view the nearer term prospects may wish to visit the dedicated storm thread as that has received some sound analysis in recent postings.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/page-21

Edited February 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[phil nw.]

GFS ensembles.

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=235&y=41&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=290&y=124

Those show that  temp. dip next week when a parcel of colder westerlies are modeled to cross the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.png

 

Could well be snow in a number of areas especially further north and over many higher levels as the rain bands move through.Still a while away but the -4 to-5C uppers coming off the Canadian vortex next week have shown on a few runs now so worth monitoring.

 

Meanwhile this week the fax's show 2 more nasty lows coming for us

 

 

the jet continuing to drive those storms towards the UK bringing yet more unwelcome rain and strong  to gale force winds.

[Bobby]

ECM +72hrs

 

 

Strange that looking at that chart I'm like "OK..." when almost any other time a ~950mb low on our doorstep would be more like "good grief!", become so used to big storms this winter. I think only when we look back on this spell of weather in the future will we realise how extraordinary it has been.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Bobby

[That ECM]

ECM +72hrs

 

 

Strange that looking at that chart I'm like "OK..." when almost any other time a ~950mb low on our doorstep would be more like "good grief!", become so used to big storms this winter. I think only when we look back on this spell of weather in the future will we realise how extraordinary it has been.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1064/ECU1-144_uat3.GIF

Followed by this!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Sigh 

February, the sixth month of Autumn.... will it ever end 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

A dreadful ECM T144hrs chart, that looks very bad in terms of winds and heavy rain, could also be some snow on the northwest flank of the low as some colder uppers move east to the north of the low.

[Bobby]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1064/ECU1-144_uat3.GIFFollowed by this!!

 

Now that really is "good grief!" chart. Would make the current storms look like twig rustlers

Edited February 5, 2014 by Bobby

[Matty M]

Yea, 144hr chart is the type that would do damage, so far away though, just an eyebrow raiser, if it is still there at 96hrs, it's time for concern.

[Eskimo]

Now that really is "good grief!" chart. Would make the current storms look like twig rustlers

I'm sure the MetOffice are twitching at that chart. 

[nick sussex]

No agreement between the big 3 at T144hrs so lets hope that low gets downgraded as it looks severe with that squeeze of the isobars on the southern flank.If it doesn't develop as much then its track would likely be shifted further south.

[chris55]

Tight little storm from the ecm 12z, some snow about i would think!

 

[Mucka]

I'm beginning to lose a little faith in the ECM. It reorganises the PV far more strongly and rapidly than any of the other models and throws in the low from hell on the 11th for good measure. I'm sure it is within the bounds of possibility but this run seems very unlikely to verify me. I'm guessing tomorrow mornings run will look quite different regarding the PV and that low.

 

144 comparison. ECM/GFS/UKMO/GEM/JMA

 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[weather eater]

Now that really is "good grief!" chart. Would make the current storms look like twig rustlers

Very nasty low and very disappointing output this evening Bobby, I really did think we were on the cusp of a pattern change but I'm starting to wonder if we haven’t just been sold another red herring, this is a poor ECM coming out, time to change the car for a boat.

[Gaz1985]

Bet that's rough if you're at sea   overall a rubbish set of models so far this evening if you are looking for dryness - it's the same record played over and over since December.

 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Gaz1985

[weather eater]

I'm beginning to lose a little faith in the ECM. It reorganises the PV far more strongly and rapidly than any of the other models and throws in the low from hell on the 11th for good measure. I'm sure it is within the bounds of possibility but this run seems very unlikely to verify me. I'm guessing tomorrow mornings run will look quite different regarding the PV and that low.

 

 

Let’s hope thats the case, it’s usually the GFS that goes overboard with dangerous looking lows and waters them down as we get close, that doesn’t seem to happening this year.

[Stuie]

Ok, regarding next week. No agreement on the uppers. 

ECM = rain

GEFS = Potential for snow

UKMO = Mix of above.

 

 

Precipitation: As I said there is potential for white coldies.

[nick sussex]

Finally at T240hrs the trough near the UK loses its energy supply from the PV, there may just be a chance for some drier weather after that, it looks like there will be uncertainty over in the USA as southern and northern stream energy merge this could produce a deep low and it looks a bit more amplified so we may see a ridge thrown ahead of that over the top of the cut off low in the Atlantic.

 

This is of course way out and theres an awful lot of wind and rain to come before that.

[draztik]

If the ecm is to be believed, its rain for the bulk of England, with the best snow potential for the NW.

snow accumulation out to t240/ ecm det.

Edited February 5, 2014 by draztik

[Polar Maritime]

As difficult as it is to put the despair aside, seeing charts like these really are something.

 

 

I have a feeling things are going to get worse, and the output certainly shows that before any major pattern change, at least we have lot's to keep an eye on for many different reasons! with the Lows swinging further South next week pulling cooler air in at times with it.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[MR EXTREMES]

Nice warm body of water out there in the Atlantic were that nasty low formed.

It reminds me of 87 storm.

Not good

[NorthernRab]

If the ecm is to be believed, its rain for the bulk of England, with the best snow potential for the NW.

snow accumulation out to t240/ ecm det.

 

 

Does Scotland just not exist any more? 

 

In particular, the incredible skiing conditions look set to continue for the Highlands based on this output

[Jason M]

GEFS looking more interesting tonight. Still can't rule out a cold spell in the second half of the month.