Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[winterof79]

It depends on how much faith you can have in the Gfs 06z against the less cold Ecm..It would be nice to have cross model agreement on a colder spell but we never seem to get it..not this winter anyway, and not once this winter has any proper wintry weather verified despite several promising model runs before it disappeared in a puff of smoke.

The output is gradually getting colder Frosty as some have alluded to today.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/kirkburton-west-yorkshire#?tab=regionalForecast A greater chance of colder interludes, as they point out,is far better than what we have at present.GFS 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020506/gfs-0-144.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020506/gfs-1-144.png?6

 

ECM 00z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020500/ECM0-168.GIF?05-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020500/ECM1-168.GIF?05-12

Surprise falls of snow may occur further north than South Midlands next week.

[Eskimo]

I see we are still comparing every storm to 1987. Shows that even 27 years later, it's still remains as a benchmark!

[Jimmyh]

correct me if i am wrong i am usually!!!! the 15th of October, the angle it came from i really didnt think that there was a sting jet involved with the great 1987 storm??

 

Please if someone can point me in the right dierction i will stand corrected.

 

Mods apologies if this is the wrong place please delete

[Blizzardof82]

I see we are still comparing every storm to 1987. Shows that even 27 years later, it's still remains as a benchmark!

Depending on what part of the country you live in, south coast and more so the south east took the brunt that night. Here in Bristol it wasn't too bad compared to 25th January 1990 which was known as the burns day storm.

 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Blizzardof82

[Bobby]

correct me if i am wrong i am usually!!!! the 15th of October, the angle it came from i really didnt think that there was a sting jet involved with the great 1987 storm??

 

Please if someone can point me in the right dierction i will stand corrected.

 

Mods apologies if this is the wrong place please delete

 

There was a sting jet according to the Met Office and this is blamed for much of the damage. Here:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

[Jimmyh]

cheers bobby as stated i stand corrected

[weather eater]

I can’t believe that there is a discussion going on about mild vs. cold, I thought it would be pretty obvious that when people use the word mild on here during the winter they just mean everything from average upwards in other words not out and out cold.

 

In terms of the models we are certainly seeing the variability of output I would expect when a possible pattern change is in the offering but that’s a wait a see job. More pressing is the here and now, with even more rain and another powerful storm waiting in the wings for Saturday for areas badly affected, some scary stuff on the news today. I have to say outside of cold and snow this is the most interesting winter I can remember for a very long time; it is a shame that we have not had a decent cold spell so far, especially for those whose weather interest only appears to be snow, any snow, even a few transient flakes, a bit odd in my book but each to their own.

 

Not being discussed is this beauty, most likely because its wind is more of an issue for the Biscay regions, although I’m sure it’s not making Nick S feel very comfortable.

Edited February 5, 2014 by weather eater

[linarite]

I can’t believe that there is a discussion going on about mild vs. cold, I thought it would be pretty obvious that when people use the word mild on here during the winter they just mean everything from average upwards in other words not out and out cold.

 

In terms of the models we are certainly seeing the variability of output I would expect when a possible pattern change is in the offering but that’s a wait a see job. More pressing is the here and now, with even more rain and another powerful storm waiting in the wings for Saturday for areas badly affected, some scary stuff on the news today. I have to say outside of cold and snow this is the most interesting winter I can remember for a very long time; it is a shame that we have not had a decent cold spell so far, especially for those whose weather interest only appears to be snow, any snow, even a few transient flakes, a bit odd in my book but each to their own.

 

Not being discussed is this beauty, most likely because its wind is more of an issue for the Biscay regions, although I’m sure it’s not making Nick S feel very comfortable.

Indeed this little storm is unusual in terms of position and intensity.. after giving Aquitaine a good seeing-to it looks like it will track NE, possibly bringing yet more rain to SE England. It wil be interesting to see how it's modelled in this evening's output

[snowmadchrisuk]

I can’t believe that there is a discussion going on about mild vs. cold, I thought it would be pretty obvious that when people use the word mild on here during the winter they just mean everything from average upwards in other words not out and out cold.

 

In terms of the models we are certainly seeing the variability of output I would expect when a possible pattern change is in the offering but that’s a wait a see job. More pressing is the here and now, with even more rain and another powerful storm waiting in the wings for Saturday for areas badly affected, some scary stuff on the news today. I have to say outside of cold and snow this is the most interesting winter I can remember for a very long time; it is a shame that we have not had a decent cold spell so far, especially for those whose weather interest only appears to be snow, any snow, even a few transient flakes, a bit odd in my book but each to their own.

 

Not being discussed is this beauty, most likely because its wind is more of an issue for the Biscay regions, although I’m sure it’s not making Nick S feel very comfortable.

Going back to Snow though , that little storm could be a Snow maker on it's Northern edge if it takes that track ,,.., been keeping an eye on it ... 

[Eskimo]

Isobars slightly tighter on the 12z for Saturday

[snowmadchrisuk]

Isobars slightly tighter on the 12z for Saturday

 

Pressure is now 945mb as well, scary stuff. 

[Eskimo]

GFS is predicting gale force winds for the southwest for nearly 24 hours...jesus!

[mountain shadow]

Can we keep to the models please...???

[karyo]

Snow for many for early next week according to the 12z gfs but nobody is talking about it!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Karyo

[gottolovethisweather]

Personal weather preferences and subjective comments aren't helping to inform those of us whom would wish to know what is likely to happen in our region over the coming days. Please get back to discussing the models in a friendly and helpful manner from now on, Thanks. In particular, additional comments backed up by appropriate charts will be most welcome.
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
Whatever the weather decides to do is beyond our control, well at least I hope so, *conspiracies aside.  Yes, I know the weather doesn't revolve around only Somerset but I wouldn't like to be there right now for any reason.

 

*The conspiracies are mentioned in the comments section below the video if viewed in YouTube itself.  

Edited February 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-0-72.png?12

 

Well, there we are. A similar track to today's storm but deeper at 950MB rather than today's 970MB. The storm for Thursday for the south is more about rain than wind but this beast for Saturday/Sunday is looking very bad.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

Nearly an E'ly for the extreme south - quite a cold looking chart and snow to high ground looks possible.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-1-252.png?12

 

Again, some quite cold air (it is mid February, not spring yet) some showers with snow to high ground very possible but a long way off.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

Tentative signs of weakening vortex and pressure rises to the North and North-East but a long long way off.

 

Meanwhile, Saturday's storm on UKMO:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020512/UW72-21.GIF?05-17

 

And on GEM:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020512/gem-0-72.png?12

 

GEM keeps the jet further south than GFS - I also note the surface Greenland HP is always modelled much more strongly on GEM.

[gottolovethisweather]

Snow for many for early next week according to the 12z gfs but nobody is talking about it!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Karyo

 

Two days running now on the 12z too Karyo. 

 

Not quite true that nobody is mentioning the risk as I have and so too have one or two others recently.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79215-model-output-discussion-25th-jan-onwards/?p=2917407

 

Anyway, onwards and upwards.

Edited February 5, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Mucka]

I can’t believe that there is a discussion going on about mild vs. cold, I thought it would be pretty obvious that when people use the word mild on here during the winter they just mean everything from average upwards in other words not out and out cold.

 

In terms of the models we are certainly seeing the variability of output I would expect when a possible pattern change is in the offering but that’s a wait a see job. More pressing is the here and now, with even more rain and another powerful storm waiting in the wings for Saturday for areas badly affected, some scary stuff on the news today. I have to say outside of cold and snow this is the most interesting winter I can remember for a very long time; it is a shame that we have not had a decent cold spell so far, especially for those whose weather interest only appears to be snow, any snow, even a few transient flakes, a bit odd in my book but each to their own.

 

Not being discussed is this beauty, most likely because its wind is more of an issue for the Biscay regions, although I’m sure it’s not making Nick S feel very comfortable.

 

So average is the new mild? 

No that wasn't obvious to me.

 

The MetO use terms such as average, a little above average or a little below average for the time of year pr they say close to the seasonal average to describe temperatures close to the norm. Beyond that they say things such as mild or rather mild or very mild or conversely cold or rather cold or very cold. It doesn't really matter to me except describing average temperatures as mild makes no sense to me rather than being a pretty obvious conclusion as you suggest. How do we differentiate between average and above average?  

Fergie might be able to shed some light on the sort of temperatures for this time of year where a forecaster would use the term mild.

 

 

GFS 12z again hints at some amplification upstream in FI but the ridges are fairly weak. at least they are there though.Otherwise it is as you were with the usual flood worries and possibly some storm worries too, especially the 8th/9th. Next week still looks rather cool and unsettled with the possibility of some wintriness to low levels as well as high ground for a while. Hopefully the ensembles will begin to pick up on the possibility of an Atlantic ridge around mid month a little more over coming runs.

UKMO looks as though it would be a little more amplified than GFS upstream if the run continued.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

for heavens sake stop carping at one another, show the charts and make comment, it is hardly rocket science to do that is it?

Look at the Extra charts, play them through to see how GFS is dealing with the weather, be it rain, gales or snow prospects, stop acting like 7 year olds in the playground.

Excitement about your weather preference is fine but for heaven's sake stop the sniping.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

so, chaps and chapesses, any idea on the likely wind gusts based on the chart below? as its now getting into the reliable timeframe..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0

[Paul]

Last chance for some people in here - it's getting ridiculous how those involved can't seem to deal with people having different opinions, perspectives or interests when it comes to discuss the models. 

 

1. People who mention the word mild, or who don't look for snow/cold at every turn aren't trolling - so those treating them as such need to stop.

2. People who are looking for cold and want to discuss it, so long as it's model related are welcome to, so those telling them they shouldn't also need to stop.

3. Model discussion means just that, so if your post doesn't fit into that category don't post it.

 

And finally, for those of you acting like it's some sort of playground in here, please grow up - you're not only wrecking the thread for others, and you're making yourselves look really ridiculous. 

[weather eater]

So average is the new mild? 

No that wasn't obvious to me.

 

The MetO use terms such as average, a little above average or a little below average for the time of year pr they say close to the seasonal average to describe temperatures close to the norm. Beyond that they say things such as mild or rather mild or very mild or conversely cold or rather cold or very cold. It doesn't really matter to me except describing average temperatures as mild makes no sense to me rather than being a pretty obvious conclusion as you suggest. How do we differentiate between average and above average?  

Fergie might be able to shed some light on the sort of temperatures for this time of year where a forecaster would use the term mild.

 

 

GFS 12z again hints at some amplification upstream in FI but the ridges are fairly weak. at least they are there though.Otherwise it is as you were with the usual flood worries and possibly some storm worries too, especially the 8th/9th. Next week still looks rather cool and unsettled with the possibility of some wintriness to low levels as well as high ground for a while. Hopefully the ensembles will begin to pick up on the possibility of an Atlantic ridge around mid month a little more over coming runs.

UKMO looks as though it would be a little more amplified than GFS upstream if the run continued.

I’m not going to belabour the point, it seems pretty obvious that I am only referring to how model thread users tend to use the word and that is as I said, I was not trying to say it was wrong or right, the simple fact is on this thread almost nobody uses the word average or phrase average for the time of year, its either cold or mild. Personally when I see a member use the word mild I don’t feel an overwhelming need to jump all over them for using the word to describe temperatures in winter of 5 or 6 degrees as mild not average, because I know they simply mean not really very cold for the time of year, not cold enough for what we are all looking for by that I mean not just a bit of hill snow or snow of a transient nature.

 

Karyo it might help if you linked to charts that everyone has access too, Wetter has not updated past 78hrs and I personally find them easier to see what’s what, as opposed to Meteociel. Overall I was hoping for a bit more from the 12z it still looks pretty zonal.

[Eskimo]

so, chaps and chapesses, any idea on the likely wind gusts based on the chart below? as its now getting into the reliable timeframe..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0

Here's the gust chart.

Probably 70-80mph gusts.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z precipitation charts show things turning less wet from the 13th to 21st

 

 

up-to 18z on the 12th another 40mm to 60mm is possibly in places

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The issue with the pattern is something which was picked up on the pub run last night where energy over North east Canada never really clears away and if anything starts to redevelop into week 2. This has the side effect of engaging the lows further downstream and making them take a more northerly track. There are some hints of an Atlantic ridge developing in week 2 if we get a break, but apart from that it's get cool cyclonic conditions.

Temperatures look average to slightly below overall after the end of this week. Cold enough for snow on higher ground and maybe to lower levels if one gets lucky. Rainfall again looks the wrong side of average for many.