Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Ouch, bomb chucked up the English channel

For the broader picture, lets hope the GFS is wrong as by day 7 it's trying the redevelop the Canadian lobe again

Edited February 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Sorry BA but WZ gridpoint is Lat 51N 0W which is actually in the Weald of East Sussex which can get pretty chilly and is more representative of Southern England than the heat Island of London.

http://www.distancesfrom.com/51n-0w-latitude-longitude-51n-0w-latitude-51n-0w-longitude/LatLongHistory/2276570.aspx?IsHistory=1&LocationID=2276570

 

This 'Isle of Wight' malarky is a commonly quoted fallacy.

 

more relevant is the lat purga which is pretty close to the isle of wight (compared to london).  850's are referenced by gav and these are not affected by a heat island. 

 

and the snowdepths for the uk from that 12z op ecm

 

 

most of it coming post day 5 so not a particularly useful tool but it does show 'worthwhile snow' for the uk.

 

all completely specious !

 

and tonight, i am starting to worry for those who have half term ski holidays booked - i doubt they will be able to reach the resorts !!!

Edited February 4, 2014 by bluearmy

[Eskimo]

more relevant is the lat purga which is pretty close to the isle of wight (compared to london).  850's are referenced by gav and these are not affected by a heat island. 

 

and the snowdepths for the uk from that 12z op ecm

 

ecmwf_snowdepth_europe_41.png

 

most of it coming post day 5 so not a particularly useful tool but it does show 'worthwhile snow' for the uk.

 

all completely specious !

I remember someone posted one of them charts 2 weeks ago showing 6-8 inches of snow for the spine of the country from day 5. Eeek!

[SMU]

The GFS now firming up on the **POTENTIAL* for lowland snow with charts like this:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020418/gfs-0-174.png?18

 

A lot of pessimism tonight, which is understandable considering the failures of this winter, however the weather has no memory & saying things will NOT be different this time is just playing it safe- & with respect to some of the posters above, they only forecast snow when its virtually falling out of the sky outside-

 

That said theres nothing wrong with playing the safety game per say, but equally theres nothing wrong with speculating what might arrive should the models verify something close to what they are showing now-

The forthcoming period- 144-192 is quite different to the failed easterlies this year, its very rare southerly tracking lows sliding through sub zero 850 atlantic air ( sourced for Eastern Canada) with low heights-

 

Depending on the tracks there will be snow.-  THe adjustments I would be considering are how far North or South.

 

Also the above chart carries storm risks if the low swings a tad further North with the tight isobars moving into the SE-  some severe gusts in that....

 

A good day today, not so much for the SE, but for the UK as a whole lots of snow opportunities available- which has been at a premium this winter...

 

S

[Jason M]

Blimey, its a bit sparky on here tonight

 

Anyway, vast quantities of rain still looks the order of the day. I know a few are thinking there will be snow but I cant see it away from high ground and even if the odd flake makes it to ground zero there is zero chance of it settling.

 

Take this chart for instance

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0

 

I've seen worse in early Feb. Some snow surely?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0

 

Nope, not with those uppers, no embedded cold air, warmer than normal SSTs and even if failing all of that it still managed to snow ground temps are way above where they should be given that most places have barely recorded an air frost all winter!

 

The second half of February could well be more interesting though and there is still a chance of deep cold (albeit the clock is ticking).

[Purga]

more relevant is the lat purga which is pretty close to the isle of wight (compared to london).  850's are referenced by gav and these are not affected by a heat island. 

 

and the snowdepths for the uk from that 12z op ecm

 

ecmwf_snowdepth_europe_41.png

 

most of it coming post day 5 so not a particularly useful tool but it does show 'worthwhile snow' for the uk.

 

all completely specious !

 

and tonight, i am starting to worry for those who have half term ski holidays booked - i doubt they will be able to reach the resorts !!!

OK BA if that actually comes off I'll gladly owe you a virtual pint LOL!

Will your's be a pint of Mild or Bitter?

[Bobby]

Yikes, that's a lot of rain for the S, SW

 

[Cloud 10]

more relevant is the lat purga which is pretty close to the isle of wight (compared to london).  850's are referenced by gav and these are not affected by a heat island. 

 

and the snowdepths for the uk from that 12z op ecm

 

ecmwf_snowdepth_europe_41.png

 

most of it coming post day 5 so not a particularly useful tool but it does show 'worthwhile snow' for the uk.

 

all completely specious !

 

and tonight, i am starting to worry for those who have half term ski holidays booked - i doubt they will be able to reach the resorts !!!

 

Had to look that one up!

 

specious

ˈspiËʃəs/

adjective

 

[*]

1.

superficially plausible, but actually wrong.

"a specious argument"

 

Word of the week,lol.

[Nick F]

Have to agree with BA, both 12z/18z GFS and 12z EC suggest snow, albeit marginal and transient, could become an increasing issue for northern and western areas by mid-week next week.

 

The jet is modelled by GFS, EC, JMA and GEM to sink further and further south next week, so the colder air from the north and northwest will filter further and further south as lows head east on an increasingly southerly track. The T850s don't look special, but combined with lowering freezing levels/lowering heights and dew points falling close to freezing - we have the increasing potential for snow.

 

Just for fun, 18z GFS precip type charts for Weds morning next week:

[egret]

Yikes, that's a lot of rain for the S, SW

 

I do hope that one is wrong - it would put an awful lot of properties under water.

[Bobby]

I do hope that one is wrong - it would put an awful lot of properties under water.

 

The NMM looks really bad just for the next 3 days, Thursday looks worrying

 

 

Accumulations over next 3 days (only a small amount is what we've had today)

 

 

Severe flooding surely if that comes off.

[Nick F]

I know it's FI, but interesting to see on 18z GFS the continued push of lows east through Europe and Wern Russia along with +ve anomalies over Svalbard towards Eern Greenland allows deep cold pooling over northern Russia/Siberia to move southwest across Scandi and towards the N Sea. Keep that momentum up and we could be looking at an interesting end to Feb, so long as the jet stays way south.

[Stuie]

The NMM looks really bad just for the next 3 days, Thursday looks worrying

 

 

Accumulations over next 3 days (only a small amount is what we've had today)

 

 

Severe flooding surely if that comes off.

Sorry mod's, I am commenting on the above chart. I sat and watched an hour of the floods footage on Sunday morning after only hearing about them. After this weeks weather if above chart is correct then there must be a point when a state of emergency is called. Watching from Essex it is a poor situation, cant imagine being there.

Edited February 4, 2014 by StuieW

[winterof79]

GFS for Friday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020500/gfs-0-60.png?0

 

UKMETO

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVJ89.gif?31415

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020500/ECM1-48.GIF?05-12 Shame the run jumps to 72 from there.

[Frosty.]

This is very serious, the Ecm 00z op run sends wave after wave of severe weather into the uk and the poor southwest continues to bear the brunt of the atlantic fury..very worrying times these, storm damage, power cuts and flooding which looks like becoming even worse if this run verifies. more COBRA meetings to come, many more. 

[IDO]

No change longer term on the models. All D10 charts uninspiring for a cold spell to arrive late February. D10 charts:

 

GFS:   ECM:  GEM: 

 

London GEFS still hinting at cooler slack flow next week with some members indicating transient snow, but poor temps for Winter primetime: 

 

The GFS ens members are poor at the end of FI with mostly some sort of continuation of next weeks theme with little sign or scope (at the moment) for a HLB. The mean:

 

Euro trough even showing that far out (mean low south Iceland), that should keep the upper temp lower so wintry opportunities for northern areas and altitude.

 

The GFS op shows the PV trying to regroup, and that reflects the majority of the GEFS:

 

 

So a window of opportunity for about a week from week 2 for some snow for the normal areas, but nothing substantive or with longevity. Rain remaining the watchword.

Edited February 5, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

ECM op has different profile of euro heights in fi, courtesy of the Azores ridging ne and the jet doesn't sink so far south. Consequently, a less impressive run for low heights and snow chances. Elevation + further north continuing to provide most interest in this regard.

not had time to look at the gefs yet but the graph looks better for next week.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and copied across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show an intense depression near Southern Ireland moving slowly North through today and slowly filling later. Severe Westerly gales are shown wrapped around the Southern flank of the Low with damage and disruption in places as heavy rain then showers continue. Conditions ease tonight and tomorrow before a new Low centre moves up towards Southern Britain with more heavy rain later in the day while the North stay showery. Then as that system moves away NE on Friday a new Low approaches Southern Ireland late in the day with renewed gales and heavy rain for many into the start of the weekend reverting to westerly gales and showers on Sunday as the Low moves up towards Scotland.

 

GFS then shows very unsettled weather lasting throughout next week as pressure remains very Low over the UK. As shown today the operational run does indicate rather lighter winds which would remove one disruptive part of the weather but heavy rain will continue to be a feature at time through the week. Then in the far reaches of the run the weather remains unsettled with spell of rain and showers mixed with some drier and brighter periods developing in temperatures somewhat lower at times.

 

The GFS Ensembles remain disturbing with no let up shown in the Atlantic pattern as Low pressure system after system rattle into and over the UK from the West with spells of rain and showers nationwide in temperatures almost totally indicated as close to the long term mean.

 

UKMO shows next Tuesday as totally Low pressure dominated with individual centres all over the UK and the North Atlantic with further rain and showers at times with some snow possible over the hills at times as temperatures fall somewhat.

 

GEM is also very unsettled looking with Low pressure in total domination too from this model with spells of rain and showers rattling on from the West next week keeping all the disruptive issues currently present possible again then.

 

NAVGEM is not available this morning. 

 

ECM today shows Low pressure well in control again next week with further spells of rain and squally showers in strong West and SW winds and temperatures close to average. Again this morning the Day 10 frame while still looking very unsettled hints at something a little drier arriving from the West albeit probably briefly as a ridge of High pressure moves across the UK in the days that follow the term of the run.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts indicate to me that the likelihood for the weather in 9 and 10 Days time will show only modest changes with the high chance that we will remain influenced by Low pressure just to or close to Northern Britain with wet and windy weather continuing at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif  

 

The Jet Stream Forecast maintains a strong and relentless flow running East over the Atlantic on a collision course with France continuing to spawn large storm systems over and close to the UK. Any changes late in the run point towards a slow weakening and buckling of the flow but these are small scale hints and very distant.

 

In Summary today the weather remains in a very unsettled state with further spells of rain and wind for all, especially over the next week. there are modest signs of something a little quieter in Week 2 but rain will still never be far away with flooding issues still a problem for many. Temperatures remain no problem given the time of year with little frost and ice though the incidence of snowfall could increase somewhat over the hills with time.

[johnholmes]

I agree with the above summary.

The upper air charts still show no major pattern change, NOAA link below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Purga]

ECM op has different profile of euro heights in fi, courtesy of the Azores ridging ne and the jet doesn't sink so far south. Consequently, a less impressive run for low heights and snow chances. Elevation + further north continuing to provide most interest in this regard.

not had time to look at the gefs yet but the graph looks better for next week.

GEFS = Mr average / mild and very wet - quelle surprise...

 

 

 

Zero indication of low level snow I'm afraid.

[TEITS]

Strongly disagree with Gibby, Purga posts this morning.

 

For starters the ensembles do not suggest mild.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140205/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Upper temps around -3C, low heights centred across the UK, disturbances within the circulation is a recipe for surprise snowfall even at lower levels. This is especially true if these disturbances occur overnight and under heavy precip. Also it is reasonable to assume that max temps could be just a few degrees above freezing. I personally consider temps of 10C to be mild at this time of year.

 

I do wish some members looked at the models in more detail rather than just assuming low pressure, W,lys equals mild & wet!

[Frosty.]

Strongly disagree with Gibby, Purga posts this morning.

 

For starters the ensembles do not suggest mild.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140205/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Upper temps around -3C, low heights centred across the UK, disturbances within the circulation is a recipe for surprise snowfall even at lower levels. This is especially true if these disturbances occur overnight and under heavy precip. Also it is reasonable to assume that max temps could be just a few degrees above freezing. I personally consider temps of 10C to be mild at this time of year.

 

I do wish some members looked at the models in more detail rather than just assuming low pressure, W,lys equals mild & wet!

I agree with eits in that we are not looking at a mild outlook, there will be a lot of chopping and changing of airmasses between Tm / rPm & Pm and that it won't be mild or cold for any length of time, probably average temps for many. We have gone back to the stormy december pattern, indeed, this could be even more severe than before. 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z is showing something less wet from the 13th to 21st

 

 

Accumulated totals to the 13th show further heavy rain for the south coast, parts of wales and Devon and Cornwall

 

 

The driest spots over the next 8 days in the UK are shown to be north east of England and north west Scotland where totals don't get above 20mm

[shaky]

Gfs 06z is again looking wintry for next week!!hopefully ecm backs it up later with a bit more disruption!!yesterdays ecm 12z looked good but this morning there is not as much disruption!!ukmo looks closer to the gfs which can only be a good thing!!

[Ali1977]

Big high building over Svaalbaard this run, just needs to.move a 1000 miles West!!