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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Its not breaking through the energy is being split up & under

 

A smidge away from a decent snowfest that

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012600/UW144-21.GIF?26-05

 

does need colder uppers though

 

S

 

It's about a trend. Will we see a trend on the ECM? That's the important thing. Uppers at that range don't matter tbh.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Well I have looked at both models that have updated to 0z so far this morning, the weather after this storm has not yet being decided, GFS the atlantic wins and sends another deep low northwest of us that cycles around to Greenland sending yet another low. The Meto looks like the low may slide under through the gap in high pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

NAVGEM has moved a bit closer to UKMO - higher pressure to the north just stalling the Atlantic advance that bit.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012600/UN144-21.GIF?26-05 Awsome synoptically- just need the uppers a tad colder ( sub -02 c would be fine) otherwise a stella UKMO_ with no end in sight at 144 as the atlantic hits the wall- S

Was just thinking the same thing when the beeb were showing 5 day pressure charts showing the block holding and the lows stalling and sliding. Hopefully the block will hold out as shown giving most of us what had trended for what seems like an eternity now.Is unusual for the beeb to forecast quite bullish snow charts so far out so there must be a lot more certainty now lows are actually interacting. Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Yep. On the ECM the energy is much further east and north and we never get the really cold uppers in. ironically we appear to get colder uppers at 168 when the low that we would have liked disrupting to our west but had got past the north east of the uk drags a rather potent north westerly.

At 192 ECM looks synoptically poor for cold, however the uppers are still around -4ish for the majority of the UK, there really must be some very cold air coming in from the west.

216 Azores high ridges in and we are in positive uppers..

But.. To cheer yourselves up please review the gem this morning :) cracking run from start to finish..

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

That really is quite a block on the 00z 240 of the GEM......and the chances of it are.......?????

It's a cracking run from start to finish . Early doors is as the rest with a weak continental drift, however it sends the Atlantic energy southeast to our west in around a weeks time and then sets up another scandi high to freeze solid all that slider snow...BANK! Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Still massive differences within the model suites, euros really struggling with the block position & eastward progression of the energy from the vortex, anything but mild though with plenty of cold to be had from both east and west. 

 

Just look at the differences between the UKMO & ECM @144

 

Frontal snow event                       Blustery wintry showers

post-9615-0-88837300-1390719653_thumb.gipost-9615-0-79343100-1390719644_thumb.gi

post-9615-0-97780400-1390719775_thumb.gipost-9615-0-62115800-1390719762_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Good morning people.

All three big guns going for an easterly fetch by midweek.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012600/UW96-21.GIF?26-06 no point showing all three

Met too.

 

Today:

A cold start. Heavy rain and strong to gale winds will quickly spread to all parts. Rain may fall as snow on hills for a time with blizzard conditions. Rain clearing to scattered, blustery wintry showers this afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6 Â°C.

 

 

 

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with blustery showers, some heavy and turning wintry at times, especially over hills. Colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers, bright spells and bitter east winds.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I do not think anyone can give a definative forecast past thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png  thats a right bag of mashings.(mess)

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Again all main models showing various modes of handling the cold block to the east. The UKMO  seems to show stronger resistance again this morning of the block and I feel will now start to upgrade and prolong the colder spell  coming this week in their forecasts today. I would also not be surprised to see a shift further north of the block later this week as some very cold air indeed from the Arctic Basin heads down its Eastern flank.

 C

Your models finally got there C.It has been a hard slog this winter.Looks ok for you at present.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012600/gfs-2-6.png?0

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Good morning people.

All three big guns going for an easterly fetch by midweek.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012600/UW96-21.GIF?26-06 no point showing all three

Met too.

 

Today:

A cold start. Heavy rain and strong to gale winds will quickly spread to all parts. Rain may fall as snow on hills for a time with blizzard conditions. Rain clearing to scattered, blustery wintry showers this afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6 Â°C.

 

 

 

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with blustery showers, some heavy and turning wintry at times, especially over hills. Colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers, bright spells and bitter east winds.

 

 

Agree. Despite the uncertainty with respect to the second slider low, that remains unresolved, many of us will get our first taste of winter next week. Things are changing, where to I am not sure yet but interesting model watching ahead.

 

Best snow chances from the GEFS this morning for London: post-14819-0-79496000-1390721307_thumb.g

 

The second slider is still showing in the GEFS as one of the two top clusters, but again no clarity. There are timing, location and disruption differences within that cluster.

 

eg: post-14819-0-19567300-1390721491_thumb.p post-14819-0-92957900-1390721502_thumb.p post-14819-0-18506500-1390721519_thumb.p

 

post-14819-0-21174400-1390721529_thumb.p  post-14819-0-05695900-1390721543_thumb.p

 

ECM are still seemingly over amplifying the pattern and unlike with the failed easterly, that showed stella charts, the over amping of the AH will only lead to the energy going over the top:

 

post-14819-0-72776100-1390721919_thumb.g

 

It is showing up in the GEFS, the Azores High move NE, however it is not as pumped up as the ECM so either is sunk by the PV energy or ridges towards Scandi. The GEM is an example, the AH is ridging but not as amplified as the ECMpost-14819-0-33615700-1390722095_thumb.p

 

It is therefore more of a bit player and the clash between the east and west goes unhindered.

As for the UKMO I am not sure where it goes after T144. The T120 had the trigger low for the second slider:

 

post-14819-0-62463700-1390722264_thumb.g

 

But it went NE. I see no trigger low on the T144 with one big PV blob that seems to be circulating round Greenland:

 

post-14819-0-71444200-1390722382_thumb.g  ...though some short wave energy heading SE. Plenty of time for upgrades if the synoptic stays the same.

 

Interesting to see where we go from D6.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

If one is looking that far ahead which is rather pointless the ECMWF certainly isn't going for an ingress of cold air.

Not sure how you can tell from that chart alone.ECM does have -5C air coming under the belly of that lowhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0By 168hrs, there's -6C airhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 00z in FI returns to the stormy looking charts we had through december. very angry looking charts but at least we get cold incursions with wintry showers, however, stormy is not what we want, been there, done that..I want a decent cold spell now!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

well as  some  else has said its looking wet not helping the flooding at all here in the uk  from here to deep f1  more heavy rain heading our way

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

I do not think anyone can give a definative forecast past thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png  thats a right bag of mashings.(mess)

It's pretty rare for a definative forecast to be given 4-5 days hence in any set up, but the overriding signal this morning is for the Atlantic to start pushing through again later this week, as the Scandi block becomes the Kazak block.

 

This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Again all main models showing various modes of handling the cold block to the east. The UKMO  seems to show stronger resistance again this morning of the block and I feel will now start to upgrade and prolong the colder spell  coming this week in their forecasts today. I would also not be surprised to see a shift further north of the block later this week as some very cold air indeed from the Arctic Basin heads down its Eastern flank. C

Yes I was just thinking that myself , ECM aside which is dogs dinner and well and truly lost the plot again but all other models , including gem which synoptically is brilliant , has stepped toward a more blocked pattern this mooring , but really guys don't even bother looking further than t144 at min apart from pattern developments, because things are changing everyday at the minute .But In the mean time we have a good cold week with sleet and snow around .
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not sure how you can tell from that chart alone.ECM does have -5C air coming under the belly of that lowhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0By 168hrs, there's -6C airhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

 

Well I did look at the complete run as well WH.

 

I wouldn't have thought  those 850 temps that significant but hey we mustn't forget we are in lala land.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

It's pretty rare for a definative forecast to be given 4-5 days hence in any set up, but the overriding signal this morning is for the Atlantic to start pushing through again later this week, as the Scandi block becomes the Kazak block.

 

This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

You forgot to show UKMO and GEM?
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