Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. A new week a new dawn but the same old? Read on for the latest look at the outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 3rd 2014.

 

All models show a continuation of very unsettled and often windy weather this week as several or as many as three separate Low pressure areas are likely to affect us this week. The first today and tonight will bring a band of heavy rain slowly East to reach the East tonight followed by showers. The second will hit the SW tomorrow afternoon and sweep rain and gales NE over all areas again followed by showers. In the South there may be a further spell of rain as a small Low crosses East just to the South while the weekend returns more wind and gales as a new large Low spreads further gales and rain over the UK for next weekend. Temperatures will often be close to average but it may feel rather chilly at times.

 

GFS changes nothing through the lower resolution portion of it's run with further rain and strong winds at times in winds from between South and West before they turn Northerly late in the run as a temporary feature.

 

The GFS Ensembles maintain the pattern as before wind wild and wet weather at times as winds remain strong and from the West or SW with Atlantic Low pressure delivering rain and strong winds to all areas all too frequently.

 

UKMO today shows the end of next weekend as very windy with a deep Low over Scotland next Sunday with gale force westerly winds driving showers and longer spells of rain Eastwards very quickly in the flow. Some of the showers could fall as snow on northern hills.

 

GEM is very similar next weekend, spiraling up yet more depressions to the NW and West in the early days of the following week with strong Westerly winds backing Southerly ahead of more frontal rain especially in the West long before the end of the run.

 

NAVGEM shows a Low pressure complex over and around the British Isles towards the end of it's run with rain and showers scattered about nationwide with winds somewhat lighter due to the slacker nature of isobars but still biased towards the west and SW.

 

ECM today also shows a similar setup with deep Low pressure over Scotland at the end of next weekend followed by further depressions lined up over the Atlantic each bringing their attendant bad weather especially towards the West and SW.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the continuing theme of Low pressure to the WNW of the UK and a broad and unstable WSW flow likely to lie across the British Isles with showers or longer spells of rain across all areas with relatively mild SW winds.

 

The Jet Stream continues unabated in it's path across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France for the foreseeable future.

 

In Summary it's more of the same this morning with all models continuing to programme the theme of unsettled and often wet and windy weather throughout their outputs. Differences between the models are shown but the overall message indicated by the models today is still a very Atlantic based and windy WSW pattern for some considerable time yet.

[Mucka]

Other than the relentless rains I may just be able to squeak a little wintry interest out of the charts in the mid range, especially for the North and West.

It looks like the Canadian PV will begin to move East around this juncture and as it does so it will bring deep cold unusually far Southwest into the Atlantic.

 

 

As always the air will be massively modified as it makes it journey to the UK but that will be a very cold Westerly that sets up for a time around the 9th so heavy blustery showers with the potential for snow to fall even to low levels in the North and West for a time I imagine. 

In a normal winter it wouldn't hold much interest but for the likes of me it may be my first and last opportunity to at least some snow fall for a while.

We will have to wait and see just how cold that air still is when it arrives but something to watch if you're in NW England and snow starved.

 

Beyond that I said the PV would likely move back East and when it did there would be a small opportunity of getting some ridging in the Atlantic toward mid month and if we were to get any decent cold shot at all it would likely be from a trough setting up over Scandinavia.

We have seen some small hints of that but that is all really. Thus far the pattern still looks to flat and fast upstream though we are still really only seeing the important time-frame modelled in GFS FI and we know that is typically too progressive at those ranges.

It is just a case of grin and bear it I'm afraid and hope for something more positive to show up soon,

Edited February 3, 2014 by Mucka

[Duane S.]

Agreed with comments this morning that there is a shard of light from this morning's 00z suite. Movement east of the vortex and signs of the jet running a bit further south.The problem is we've seen it all before this winter. Maybe this is the early signs of a pattern change to something colder but so far these glimmers of hope just fade away into obsecurity as the signal is overridden or should that be bulldozed before a trend has time to get established.Even the in best case scenario, there is a lot of Atlantic derived weather to come yet for us.I do think the much maligned GEFS is one of the best indicators of potential change. Certainly not in any terms of absolute accuracy but if the area I've highlighted below in red is constantly bereft of activty then there is usually a reason for that, we are stuck in a broad westerly pattern, aka now. Unfortunately the same doesn't always apply when the area in red is brimming with activity but I do find in order to have a genuine potential we need the red area to start becoming a lot busier.

[Purga]

GFS 06z completely drops any idea of any wintry conclusion in FI and goes flat and unsettled throughout with no signs of northern blocking or even MLB at all.

 

 

And Yep, you guessed it, loads of rain right to the bitter end

 

Edited February 3, 2014 by Purga

[carinthian]

Presumably because they wont be able to find the pistes because of the metres of snow ?? Looks like bucketloads of snow for the alps.

Yep, I50cm fresh snowfall over the weekend and still it stalls over the Southern Alps. You guys just keep propelling all that moisture over here. Mostly above 1000m the snow is now providing massive totals and dangerous conditions as the warmer air mass lifts into the colder air aloft. The snow mass will become increasingly unstable as this week progresses. The models still provide a continuation of snow feed for us here.

 C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not a lot to say about the general weather pattern projected by the model outputs- a very wild, wet and windy setup for the foreseeable.  I am seeing hints that temperatures won't be far above average during the next 7-10 days, with some relatively cold airmasses coming in from the west at times, though not cold enough for any advance on the odd bit of hail/sleet mixed with rain at low levels.  I am seeing suggestions that temperatures may rise further above average towards midmonth as the cold air in the western Atlantic gets largely mixed out and our polar maritime incursions become less cold.

 

Note that the jet stream will be travelling further south than usual, but that we are set to remain locked in a west to south-westerly type thanks to the deeper-than-normal Icelandic low.

 

In my month-ahead weather forecast I went for a brief quiet interlude at some point between 15 and 20 February (similar to the brief anticyclonic stint around mid-February 2002) but stressed that it would be short-lived.  To be honest, I have doubts about whether it will actually come off.  For the short-term, the 5th and 8th February continue to look like being the wettest and windiest days over most parts of the country.

[Blizzardof82]

What has struck me this Winter so far is not just the relentless rain and wind but the lack of any eye candy FI charts from the models, I guess with the PV being so strong we shouldn't expect any but I find it remarkable.

 

I was also under the impression that stratospheric warming could lead to a more blocked pattern so will this chart make any difference on the troposphere?

 

[Nick L]

just had to read the netweather winter forecast again out of curiosity to see how it compared with the actual winter we are having and it was a load of cobblers to be honest.  Drier and colder than average they forecasted... and a traditional old fashioned winter.  Well how much more inaccurate could they have been?  Even a 'traditional old fashioned' UK winter would mean a few days of snow falling/lying across most parts of the country.  I live in the midlands and we have yet to see even one flake of snow so far this winter.  We've only had 3 air frosts too, which is unheard of. 

 

There is a thread for the NW forecast here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78606-netweather-winter-forecast-2013/

[Man With Beard]

Rainfall projections for the week still high but far lower (except in far SW Wales) than a couple of days ago:

 

 

Where's all the rain going then? ... Oh dear, not the best week to go to Northern Portugal!

 

Edited February 3, 2014 by rjbw

[nick sussex]

Apart from the odd GEFS  member no sign of any change to the current pattern.The ECM operational run does show the jet further south and finally the deep cold lifting out of the central/ne USA at T240hrs, some weakish pressure rises near the pole aided by the latest strat warming but its ensemble suite upto day 15 shows no interest in developing anything colder for western Europe.

 

 

A desperate set of ensembles there for cold, to be honest without that strat warming I'd be calling it a day for this winter, with that going on still a small chance something might pop up and the trend of the ECM operational run was a little better than recent days. Before anything could possibly develop theres still a lot of wind and rain to come which is going to cause more problems.

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

yep - rome and madrid both forecast around 2 inches of precip over the next 10 days

[Bobby]

Rainfall projections for the week still high but far lower (except in far SW Wales) than a couple of days ago:

 

 

Where's all the rain going then? ... Oh dear, not the best week to go to Northern Portugal!

 

 

36 hours later however...

 

[Eskimo]

Dear god it's back :O

[shaky]

Dear god it's back :O

mentioned early this morning that the ecm had it further north again and now it looks like ukmo and gfs have joined the party!!snow chances still there!!

[Snow Grain]

Looking at the latest charts I would say a cold spell is pretty well nailed on for the second half of February. Expect to see some good signals and eye candy charts in the coming days.

[Staffordshire]

Gfs 12z seems to have more of a wintry element to it... Still only at 177h but some differences can be seen already, possible snow for south on 6th feb, sorry can't post charts as on phone

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looking at the latest charts I would say a cold spell is pretty well nailed on for the second half of February. Expect to see some good signals and eye candy charts in the coming days.

That is a very Bold statement, Have to admit though them 30Hpa temps look good, but we have to hope it works out for our neck of the woods , Was only a few of years ago , We had a full on SSW and then Feb turned out Mild and above average. 

[MR EXTREMES]

ok so its been awful so far this winter but theres more change coming with in the next few days as we see the votex slowly losing its grip so plenty of cold air enriched to our north and north west and even to our west.

although a very very stormy and wet period of weather for awhile yet.

 

but there is light at the end of this very long tunnel there is also a very good chance that we may have a cold spring infact possibly as cold as last spring its worth watch for its as likely as a warm spring so 50/50 vortex on the move and losing energy and this is where blocking could finally show so promise ok maybe to little to late but i think most of us in the south and southeast see some white stuff atleast it was not a total fail.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

How many times have we been here this winter and said "eye candy charts on the way" or "better charts" ?

 

Dozens actually less about 3 times and each time it has failed to deliver. I love snow (outside of work) and I do enjoy it when it does snow and it is cold. I am not a mild ramper.. But I just really can't see there being any real wintry stuff in the coming month.

 

Indeed a very bold statement to make as suggested above, but if we follow the pattern then it would back this up. Now.. I would say we could be in for a chance for something colder in spring, but again we are stepping into an un known world!

 

Lets see what happens this week as this will impact next.. But as far as I can see on the GFS anyway.. There are some nasty looking lows and I really would love it to be dry down south for the people effected by the floods.

 

Cold and dry fine

[MR EXTREMES]

Gfs 12z seems to have more of a wintry element to it... Still only at 177h but some differences can be seen already, possible snow for south on 6th feb, sorry can't post charts as on phone

this chart would hold some hope

ukmo as well

ecm a little slower 

gefs to although we need to account for modification but to see something wintry would be nice

[Gaz1985]

Unfortunately a wet picture overall esp the further west and south west you are, more flooding likely. Accumulated rainfall up to 192hrs

 

Edited February 3, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Frosty.]

Looking at the latest charts I would say a cold spell is pretty well nailed on for the second half of February.

 

I thought a very cold first half to Feb was pretty well nailed recently and look what happened, but if we get a northwest / southeast aligned jet, that would set us up for much colder incursions as lows slide southeast instead of piling northeastwards as they will be for the next week or so at least. I really hope we see a pattern change soon, not only is it the glaring lack of snow for many areas, but I haven't known such a poor winter for barely any frosts...a cold anticyclonic spell would be nice, especially for the flooded areas but no sign of that yet.

[Bobby]

This is getting a bit silly now, from the GFS

 

 

Day 8, end of run

 

 

 

Just endless

[Eskimo]

I am a die hard snow fan but my attention has now been taken away from that, I've now just begun to realise the grave situation much of the Southwest are in. Some places could see 150mm over the next week or so and that is absolutely shocking.

[Purga]

Good grief! Another absolute p*ssfest from GFS 12z - again....

 

 

Right through until the end

 

 

Ferocious winds and driving rain, how much longer can this go on??