Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[kev238]

I always look at the name of the poster to assess how objective they are.As has been the case, wet, mild, unsettled; not mild in the double figures sense but mild in terms of a overall average !The overall pattern is so set that it is pretty clear there is not going to be a significant cold spell this winter. All the ensembles /data/ forecasts suggest this. Meanwhile we have potentially the wettest / stormiest winter on record. A winter people say is boring; I would suggest these people are not really weather enthusiasts as how can such an extreme season be boring ?

Edited February 2, 2014 by phil nw.
removed reported ot comments

[IDO]

Although stuck on t192 the GFS 06z chart clearly shows the effects ofwave 2 strat warming filtering down into the troposphere.Can notremember when I last saw high pressure where the vortex has sat most ofthe winter.FI starting to look a lot colder than we have been use to with lowstracking further south and higher pressure then trying to ridge north.Of course by this time we are into the middle of February and to havelaying snow you really need the colder uppers but I feel that we arebeginning to see a positive feed back of the warming in the strat downinto the NWP models. Hopefully this will now continue in future runs andwe will see an increasingly colder outlook for around the middle of Februaryonwards.

 

 

Yes a more mobile pattern has got to be better than next week's more static setup.

 

A better opportunity for the colder air circulating the moving PV to temporary pass over us; so the north should have more snowy opportunities.

 

However the PV remains the defining feature even at D16, and there is no trend for heights to extend north throughout the NH, so without that amplification I don't see a longer cold spell developing before the last week of February.

 

GFS 06z op at D16:  

 

This run restores the late FI Atlantic ridge toppler as the upper trough moves from west to east, but this again only brings transient drier conditions after a brief NW'ly, then back to the westerly flow.

 

This ties in with Friday's JMA update for week 3-4 of February: 

 

A continuation of the week 2 theme.

 

None of the warmings in the strat this season have amounted to much for the UK cold wise, maybe it's our turn with the upcoming one.

[johnholmes]

my extremely basic idea of the 30mb temperature effect on the Troposphere shows this, see below, the first time in a long while it has actually crept above the average line. I doubt that is sufficient to give any real help. What it 'may' do is give less support to the upper air pattern of the last umpteen weeks to have more chance, no more, to create some northern blocking. But don't hold your breath just yet if you still want a late cold and snow fest!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[SLEETY]

. The one consolation that while these conditions prevail there will be little or no risk from snow with ice, frost and fog no more than a local issue on the rare occasions when clearing skies between systems overnight allow patchy ground frost to be possible.

 

that maybe be true for the majority,but I think the scottish mountains deserve a mention,for the amount of snow that has fallen above about 2500ft especially western ranges since early december.

 

glencoe ski resort is reporting phenomenal depths of snow with the upper mountain averaging 421cm with 589cm depth in the main basin, nearly 20ft,! and their is still plenty more snow to come!

 

so this could end  up the snowiest winter ever in the highlands,and the wettest winter ever in much of lowland uk.  An absolutely fascinating winter this is turning out to be.

 

cant believe why so many posters disappear if their is no sign of any bitter weather showing ,the weather is so much more than that

[Panayiotis]

Pressure rise shown on the 06Z for Cardiff around the 15th, quite a large spread however but hopefully we get more support because flooded areas need it urgently! 

[Mr Frost]

that maybe be true for the majority,but I think the scottish mountains deserve a mention,for the amount of snow that has fallen above about 2500ft especially western ranges since early december. glencoe ski resort is reporting phenomenal depths of snow with the upper mountain averaging 421cm with 589cm depth in the main basin, nearly 20ft,! and their is still plenty more snow to come! so this could end  up the snowiest winter ever in the highlands,and the wettest winter ever in much of lowland uk.  An absolutely fascinating winter this is turning out to be. cant believe why so many posters disappear if their is no sign of any bitter weather showing ,the weather is so much more than that

It is easy to understand why so many posters vanish during weather like this - it's Winter and most of the people on this forum seek snow, frost and ice days. We get wind and rain most of the year, there is nothing interesting or exciting about it. It is the most common weather we experience in the UK year round. I can understand why people would get excited or interested about snow, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricane ect ect...But rain on and off all day with wind gusts of 50 mph? My gran would not even bat an eyelid at this nevermind a weather enthusiast. Hopefully the weather treats us to a taste of Winter later in the month or during March. From April onwards I will be seeking some dry weather with a bit of warmth! Hopefully Summer is a scorcher to make up for this dismal Winter we are currently having.

[Chris K]

that maybe be true for the majority,but I think the scottish mountains deserve a mention,for the amount of snow that has fallen above about 2500ft especially western ranges since early december.

 

glencoe ski resort is reporting phenomenal depths of snow with the upper mountain averaging 421cm with 589cm depth in the main basin, nearly 20ft,! and their is still plenty more snow to come!

 

so this could end  up the snowiest winter ever in the highlands,and the wettest winter ever in much of lowland uk.  An absolutely fascinating winter this is turning out to be.

 

cant believe why so many posters disappear if their is no sign of any bitter weather showing ,the weather is so much more than that

 

Indeed. Whilst I would love a snowy spell, I have still got stuck in looking at the models because I find it interesting as to how they cope with patterns such as this one we are locked in right now. This winter has been very interesting personally, but of course it has been a dreadful time for many people caught up in the floods.

 

This winter has been just as valuable as others if you are learning to analyse the models in my opinion, but I understand many here are only interested in searching for cold & snow and/or fed up of seeing rain & wind bombarding us within the reliable time-frame.

 

Certainly no issue with that - personal preferences after all.

 

It is at least one positive to see some tentative signs of pressure rises - more so to our SE at present. Hopefully we see this signal build rather than fade, because to be honest I am a bit tired of everywhere feeling damp and squelchy and would happily sacrifice snow for a dry period of weather right now.

 

Let's hope for a white Easter instead 

Edited February 2, 2014 by Chris K

[Cloud 10]

my extremely basic idea of the 30mb temperature effect on the Troposphere shows this, see below, the first time in a long while it has actually crept above the average line. I doubt that is sufficient to give any real help. What it 'may' do is give less support to the upper air pattern of the last umpteen weeks to have more chance, no more, to create some northern blocking. But don't hold your breath just yet if you still want a late cold and snow fest!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

 

The 30mb temperatures over the pole are set to "soar" up to the dizzy heights of

between -40 and -50 over the next week which would be a huge jump over the present values

of sub -70,although whether and how this will affect the atmosphere below is uncertain.

 

[Tim Bland]

A plus 4 now showing over Greenland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=138&code=0&mode=10

Could be some wintry showers around next weekend

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2

Edited February 2, 2014 by Tim Bland

[shaky]

A plus 4 now showing over Greenlandhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=138&code=0&mode=10

more like a plus 8!!looks like a brilliant warming there!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the arctic profile does look a little shaken up as we head into week 2 with no real amorphous blob staying in one place and the general trend for the tropospheric vortex to weaken somewhat.

Trouble is the models seem to have reasonable agreement for the Atlantic profile to be a makeshift ironing board. no amplification whatsoever.

[wimblettben]

Don't get how somone could find 50mph winds boring.

 

We rarely even reach that here on a pole 30ft+ off the ground, and thats just with gusts. I nearly reached it this Winter but quite a few areas near here had whole trees snapped or uprooted.

 

Anyway it doesn't look good for flooded areas this week with the next batch of lows coming in, a pattern change could be emerging though as some models are showing height rises in the future.

[Tim Bland]

Not a bad 12z run for a chance of occasionally wintry precipitation. Looks good for the ski areas and even low ground could see some sleet or wet snow at times. Signs that the euro block could be on its last legs and the PV starting to weaken. Would be very happy with the run if it was November. Shame we don't have time on our hands

[cooling climate]

Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still

to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had.

I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think

it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but

its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction.

It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm

and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.

Edited February 2, 2014 by cooling climate

[Ali1977]

There definitely seems to be some type of pattern change towards the middle of Feb, I think in a few weeks weather charts may start looking more like winter!!

[A.J]

Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still

to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had.

I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think

it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but

its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction.

It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm

and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.

When you consider what charts the GFS has been churning out this winter, you'd have a mass NW suicide/frontal lobe labotomy if the GFS (or any other model)  ran for yet another 100 hours!   .....The white flag has been raised by the coldie masses it seems, roll on winter 2014/15

[draztik]

And the poor outlook just continues unabated, with the gefs ensemble mean and control unsettled from start to finish. Gfs op seemingly an outlier, with the ens not keen on anything overly cold. The Canadian op also offers us little hope this evening, with more of the same.

height anomalies D 0-16

Edited February 2, 2014 by draztik

[johnholmes]

Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still

to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had.

I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think

it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but

its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction.

It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm

and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.

 

with respect CC what on earth is the point of that? How many times at various time scales has GFS suggested a wintry outlook, then nothing at all like it suggests happens.

Until the upper air profile changes quite a lot then there is little prospect of any 'winter', other than for the high ground chiefly of Scotland, with brief wintiness elsewhere, ie a touch of frost and some sleet here and there.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020212/ECU1-120.GIF?02-0

 

Still some possible wintriness for the SE or midlands as that shallow feature tracks across Friday- however still fairly large margins of error mean it could track into france.....

 

S

[Chris K]

And the poor outlook just continues unabated, with the gefs ensemble mean and control unsettled from start to finish. Gfs op seemingly an outlier, with the ens not keen on anything overly cold. The Canadian op also offers us little hope this evening, with more of the same.height anomalies D 0-16

 

Looks that way, however with positive anomalies situated over Europe appearing, if they were to edge enough West, it could perhaps help alleviate rainfall for the S & SW and push it further North with a more NW/SE split.

 

However this signal seems to weaken as we go further ahead.

 

Anyway...surface detail cannot be pinpointed that far out, so we will have to see where we are when this weeks weather has passed...on the face of it - not great for the foreseeable!

Edited February 2, 2014 by Chris K

[SMU]

Looking at days 7-9 this week- a more wintry pattern setting in- especially for the NW & NI as the main low creeps to the NE of the UK & some very low heights get into the UK

 

for next weekend heavy wintry showers spreading East in -6c air blown in off a powerful atlantic.

 

Certainly more snow for the Scottish ski resorts, & perhaps a covering for the likes of the Pennines etc

 

S

[IDO]

Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still

to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had.

I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think

it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but

its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction.

It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm

and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.

 

It is still hard to find signs of change from the GFS even at D16. Compared to the mean the upper temps are an outlier on the OP.

 

Mean:   Op: 

 

The GEFS are showing what they have been showing for the last few days, London: 

 

Not a whisper of cold there. Looking at each member they were nearly all zonal, the background of temporary pressure rises remain but these are not trending (at the moment). There was only one HLB showing: 

 

 And this again had the cold too far east.

 

GEM at T240 shows no potential for cold in the medium term: 

 

ECM in kilter with the other models, with respect to the UK LW pattern, D10:  

 

For the south very little chance for wintry stuff, high ground and Scotland look OK for potential. However rain and wind the theme for Week 1 and more rain week 2, possibly less stormy.

Edited February 2, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[johnholmes]

my views using the 500mb anomaly charts and other models

 

500mb charts and ahead from 2 feb 2014.pdf

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It is still hard to find signs of change from the GFS even at D16. Compared to the mean the upper temps are an outlier on the OP.

 

Mean: gens-0-0-384.png  Op: gfs-1-384.png

 

The GEFS are showing what they have been showing for the last few days, London: graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (18).gif

 

Not a whisper of cold there. Looking at each member they were nearly all zonal, the background of temporary pressure rises remain but these are not trending (at the moment). There was only one HLB showing: 

 

gensnh-6-1-384 (2).png  And this again had the cold too far east.

 

GEM at T240 shows no potential for cold in the medium term: gemnh-0-240 (17).png

 

ECM in kilter with the other models, with respect to the UK LW pattern, D10:  ECH1-240 (11).gif

 

For the south very little chance for wintry stuff, high ground and Scotland look OK for potential. However rain and wind the theme for Week 1 and more rain week 2, possibly less stormy.

 

Sadly not for 300m+ snowfest on most of those FI charts especially oop norf, for my elevation though I agree no sign of cold, but our 300m members will disagree

[phil nw.]

The 12Z runs continue to show a strong,unsettled and rather chilly westerly pattern through the coming week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020212/UW96-7.GIF?02-18

 

Plenty of rain and showers with some strong winds to come especially around mid-week when another deep low moves ne towards the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

 

a bit further on towards the end of the week yet another deep low is currently modeled to bring further unpleasant conditions and flooding problems across the country.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

with the air quite chilly - uppers around-2 to -4C on many days- the highlands are likely to see quite a bit of snow in this setup so at least for the ski resorts Winter is delivering something positive.